1979—2022年新疆地区空中水汽变化特征及未来多情景预估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.01

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10): 1753-1765.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.01 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20251001

1979—2022年新疆地区空中水汽变化特征及未来多情景预估

郭娜¹^,²(), 陈伏龙¹^,²(), 王统霞¹^,², 吕廷波¹^,², 龙爱华¹^,³

1.石河子大学水利建筑工程学院，新疆石河子 832000
2.寒旱区生态水利工程兵团重点实验室，新疆石河子 832000
3.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室，北京 100038

收稿日期:2025-01-17 修回日期:2025-06-14 出版日期:2025-10-15 发布日期:2025-10-22
通讯作者: 陈伏龙. E-mail: cfl103@shzu.edu.cn
作者简介:郭娜（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水文学及水资源. E-mail: guona1947@163.com
基金资助:
南疆重点产业创新发展支撑计划项目(2022DB024);兵团科技创新人才计划项目(2023CB008-08);国家自然科学基金项目：气候变化下玛纳斯河流域降雨融雪混合产流区洪水形成机理及模拟研究(52169005)

Characteristics of airborne water vapor changes and future multi-scenario projections in Xinjiang, 1979-2022

GUO Na¹^,²(), CHEN Fulong¹^,²(), WANG Tongxia¹^,², LYU Tingbo¹^,², LONG Aihua¹^,³

1. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China
2. Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydraulic Engineering Corps in Cold and Arid Areas, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Received:2025-01-17 Revised:2025-06-14 Published:2025-10-15 Online:2025-10-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆作为中国西北干旱区的重要组成部分，其水汽变化直接影响区域降水形成和云水资源开发潜力，对水资源可持续利用与生态安全具有关键作用。利用1979—2022年ERA5再分析数据，结合多种统计分析方法，系统分析了新疆水汽含量的长期变化趋势及其与降水的时空耦合关系，探究了水汽输送的演变规律，并预测了四种排放情景下新疆水汽的未来变化趋势。结果表明：（1） 1979—2022年新疆水汽含量总体呈上升趋势，季节变化显著，夏季最高，冬季最低，主要集中在对流层中下层；（2）降水转化率空间分布差异明显，北部的降水转化率相对较高，而南部普遍较低，表明新疆的云水资源开发潜力较大，且该潜力自西向东、由南向北递减；（3）水汽主要受西风输送影响，西部和南部为输入区，东部和北部为输出区，多年平均水汽净收支为正值；（4）在不同排放情景下，水汽含量、水汽输送和水汽净收支均呈增加趋势，且增幅随排放水平升高而加大。水汽增加的主要原因可能与新疆及其周边地区纬向输送的增强有关。研究结果为新疆水资源管理、人工增雨优化及气候变化影响评估提供了科学依据，对深入理解区域水循环过程、合理开发利用云水资源以及应对气候变化具有重要意义。

关键词: 水汽含量, 降水转化率, 水汽输送, 未来预估, 新疆

Abstract:

Xinjiang, which lies in the arid region of northwestern China, experiences water vapor variations that directly influence regional precipitation formation and cloud water resource potential, playing a pivotal role in sustainable water resource use and ecological security. This study used ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979-2022 and applied various statistical methods to systematically analyze the long-term trends in water vapor content over Xinjiang, its spatiotemporal association with precipitation, the evolution of water vapor transport, and future projections under four emission scenarios. The results were as follows: (1) From 1979 to 2022, the atmospheric water vapor content in Xinjiang exhibited an overall increasing trend with pronounced seasonal variations, peaking in summer and reaching its lowest levels in winter. The water vapor was primarily concentrated in the middle and lower troposphere. (2) The precipitation conversion efficiency showed distinct spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the north and lower values in the south, suggesting substantial potential for cloud water resource utilization in Xinjiang, which decreases from west to east and from south to north. (3) Water vapor transport was predominantly influenced by westerly winds, with net input in the western and southern regions and net output in the eastern and northern regions, resulting in a positive multi-year mean net water vapor budget. (4) Under all emission scenarios, water vapor content, transport, and net budget displayed increasing trends, with a higher magnitude of increase under higher emission levels. The primary driver of water vapor increase is likely associated with the enhanced zonal transport over Xinjiang and adjacent regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for water resource management, optimized artificial precipitation enhancement, and climate change impact assessments in Xinjiang, offering critical insights into regional hydrological cycles, sustainable cloud water resource utilization, and climate adaptation strategies.

Key words: water vapor content, precipitation conversion rate, water vapor transport, future projection, Xinjiang

郭娜, 陈伏龙, 王统霞, 吕廷波, 龙爱华. 1979—2022年新疆地区空中水汽变化特征及未来多情景预估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(10): 1753-1765.

GUO Na, CHEN Fulong, WANG Tongxia, LYU Tingbo, LONG Aihua. Characteristics of airborne water vapor changes and future multi-scenario projections in Xinjiang, 1979-2022[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1753-1765.

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	[Cheng Qian, Qi Yue, Liu Mingchun, et al. Characteristics of ecology and water resource changes in the Shiyang River Basin under the background of climate change and human activities[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1672-1684. ] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.06
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模式名称	所属国家	所属机构简称	分辨率
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	国家（北京）气候中心（BCC）	1.125°×1.125°
CanESM5	加拿大	加拿大气候建模和分析中心（CCCma）	2.8°×2.8°
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	马克斯普朗克气象研究所（MPI-M）	1.875°×1.875°
FGOALS-g3	中国	中国科学院大气物理研究所（CAS）	2.0°×2.0°
MRI-ESM2-0	日本	日本气象厅气象研究所（JMA）	1.125°×1.125°

特征向量	一	二	三	四	五	六	七	八
方差贡献率/%	51.65	16.07	10.36	5.51	3.05	2.31	1.60	1.36
累计贡献率/%	51.65	67.72	78.08	83.59	86.64	88.95	90.55	91.91

	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5
水汽含量/（10^-1mm·a^-1）	0.16	0.38	0.63	0.74
水汽净收支/（10⁴kg·s^-1·a^-1）	0.57	0.61	0.65	1.1

1979—2022年新疆地区空中水汽变化特征及未来多情景预估

Characteristics of airborne water vapor changes and future multi-scenario projections in Xinjiang, 1979-2022

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