基于GCM的蒙古高原降水稳定同位素模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用第二次稳定水同位素比较小组SWING2中的5种大气环流模式（GCM）对比分析蒙古高原降水同位素大气水线方程、时空变化特征及与温度的关系，并与全球降水同位素观测信息网（GNIP）实测数据进行比较，旨在根据比较结果得出最佳适用于蒙古高原的GCM模型，为缺少实测站点的蒙古高原地区提供详细的降水同位素信息。结果表明：由LMDZ（ECMWF）模拟的当地大气水线方程δD=7.783δ¹⁸O+3.011更接近于实测结果；5种GCM模式模拟的δ¹⁸O与δD都具有显著的季节性变化，其中模拟月均δ¹⁸O和δD值效果最好的为LMDZ（free）和LMDZ（ECMWF）；根据纬度效应分析发现，只有CAM2（free）、LMDZ（ECMWF）和MIROC（free）模型能够显示出蒙古高原的纬度效应；从经度上看，LMDZ（ECMWF）和isoGSM（NCEP）模型显示出西段地区（87°~107°E）降水中的δ¹⁸O值比东段地区（107°~127°E）降水中的δ¹⁸O值大；在温度效应分析中，除了LMDZ（free）呈现出较弱的温度效应，其余模式均呈现出明显的温度效应，并且LMDZ（ECMWF）模式模拟两地降水中的δ¹⁸O与温度的相关系数最高，温度效应最强。

关键词: GCM, 降水, 同位素, 蒙古高原

Abstract:

This study used five atmospheric circulation models (GCM) from SWING2 and the second stable water isotope comparison group, to analyze the atmospheric water line equations of precipitation isotopes, spatial and temporal variations, and temperature relationships in the Mongolian Plateau. They were compared with the data from the Global Network for Isotope Observation and Information on Precipitation (GNIP), to provide detailed precipitation isotope information for the Mongolian Plateau, which lacks measurement stations. The results show that the local atmospheric water equation δD=7.783δ¹⁸O+3.011 simulated by LMDZ (ECMWF) was closer to the measured values; the δ¹⁸O and δD simulated by the five GCM models had significant seasonal variations, and the best simulation of their average monthly values were LMDZ (free) and LMDZ (ECMWF); and the results are based on the latitudinal effect. Only the CAM2 (free), LMDZ (ECMWF) and MIROC (free) models demonstrated the latitudinal effect in the Mongolian Plateau. In terms of longitude, the LMDZ (ECMWF) and isoGSM (NCEP) models showed that the δ¹⁸O values during precipitation in the western section of the region (87°-107°E) were higher than those in the eastern section (107°-127°E). Except for LMDZ (free), which demonstrated a weak temperature effect, others showed a robust impact. The LMDZ (ECMWF) model simulated the highest correlation coefficient between δ¹⁸O and temperature during precipitation in the two areas, with the strongest temperature effect.

Key words: GCM, precipitation, isotopes, Mongolian Plateau

陆文静, 瞿德业, 杨明月, 黄翰林, 杨山泉. 基于GCM的蒙古高原降水稳定同位素模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(9): 1491-1502.

LU Wenjing, QU Deye, YANG Mingyue, HUANG Hanlin, YANG Shanquan. GCM-based stable isotope modelling of precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1491-1502.

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GNIP站点	时期	δ¹⁸O记录数/个	δD记录数/个	δ¹⁸O/‰	δD/‰
乌兰巴托	1990—2001年	44	44	-14.10	-108.82
包头	1986—1992年	61	60	-8.27	-57.10

GCM模式	模式来源	空间分辨率	模拟方法
CAM2（free）	美国国家大气研究中心	2.81°×2.81°	AMIP标准
LMDZ（free）	法国气象动力实验室	3.75°×2.54°	AMIP标准
LMDZ（ECMWF）	法国气象动力实验室	3.75°×2.54°	ECMWF张弛逼近
isoGSM（NCEP）	日本东京大学	1.88°×1.90°	NCEP张弛逼近
MIROC（free）	日本东京气候系统研究中心	2.81°×2.79°	AMIP标准

	δ¹⁸O/‰				δD/‰
	最小值	月份	最大值	月份	最小值	月份	最大值	月份
GNIP	-21.90	12月	-5.22	5月	-170.13	12月	-42.15	5月
CAM2（free)	-28.23	12月	-5.69	6月	-223.56	1月	-43.43	4月
LMDZ（free)	-32.57	1月	-1.61	9月	-277.40	1月	-3.93	5月
LMDZ（ECMWF)	-28.11	12月	-1.07	5月	-204.71	12月	-15.19	6月
isoGSM（NCEP)	-41.01	1月	-18.47	6月	-311.38	1月	-136.46	6月
MIROC（free)	-29.57	12月	-5.02	5月	-236.56	12月	-36.50	4月

	乌兰巴托		包头
	温度效应	R	温度效应	R
GNIP	δ¹⁸O=0.45T-15.89	0.79	δ¹⁸O=0.39T-11.44	0.61
CAM2（free）	δ¹⁸O=0.29T-16.50	0.88	δ¹⁸O=0.23T-16.36	0.69
LMDZ（free）	δ¹⁸O=0.47T-14.94	0.91	δ¹⁸O=0.23T-10.69	0.75
LMDZ（ECMWF）	δ¹⁸O=0.44T-14.56	0.93	δ¹⁸O=0.38T-10.98	0.87
isoGSM（NCEP）	δ¹⁸O=0.43T-28.38	0.92	δ¹⁸O=0.34T-29.92	0.86
MIROC（free）	δ¹⁸O=0.33T-16.97	0.90	δ¹⁸O=0.33T-16.40	0.77