内蒙古各气候区主要作物生长季干旱特征及其与响应因子回归模型

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.07

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 1410-1427.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.07

内蒙古各气候区主要作物生长季干旱特征及其与响应因子回归模型

高晓瑜¹(),汤鹏程²,张莎¹,屈忠义¹(),杨威¹

1.内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
2.中国水利水电科学研究院牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特 010020

收稿日期:2022-04-11 修回日期:2022-06-27 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-10-25
通讯作者: 屈忠义
作者简介:高晓瑜（1988-）,女,讲师,主要从事多尺度农业水循环及用水效率研究. E-mail: gaoxiaoyu000@163.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2022MS05047);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2020MS05011);内蒙古自治区科技成果转化项目(2021CG0022)

Drought characteristics and regression models of drought characteristics and response factors of various climatic areas in Inner Mongolia during main crop growing season

GAO Xiaoyu¹(),TANG Pengcheng²,ZHANG Sha¹,QU Zhongyi¹(),YANG Wei¹

1. Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Hohhot 010020, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2022-04-11 Revised:2022-06-27 Online:2022-09-15 Published:2022-10-25
Contact: Zhongyi QU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变化环境下,内蒙古各气候区出现不同程度的干旱,可能会对当地农牧业带来一定的灾害损失。为了明确内蒙古地区主要作物生长季（5—9月）干旱特征及其对气候因子的响应,将内蒙古全区划分为5个气候区,选取1981—2012年内蒙古地区46个气象站点和2014—2020年20个气象站点逐月气象观测数据,计算了多尺度标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index,SPEI）,揭示其干旱特征规律;以月尺度为例,探明了各气候区作物生育期干旱高发时间与地区,干旱的气象主导因子,验证回归模型的适用性。结果表明：（1）从时间变化来看,1998—2008年干旱情况较为严重,其余年份干旱程度较轻;（2）作物生长季内干旱面积和程度最大为5月;西部特干旱气候区发生中度干旱的概率比东部湿润半湿润气候区高37%,而特大干旱主要发生在东部湿润半湿润气候区;（3）各气候区同一月份干旱气象主导因子各不相同,降水和最低温度是作物生长季干旱的最主要影响因子;（4）各气候区估算模型精度较高,误差在合理范围内,因此,回归模型可以用于有限气象数据下估算月SPEI。研究结果可为科学评估内蒙古地区作物生长季干旱特征及其制定合理干旱应对措施提供科学依据。

关键词: 气候区, 干旱特征, 标准化降水蒸发指数, 气象因子, 回归模型, 主要作物生长季, 内蒙古

Abstract:

With the foundation of global climate change in recent years, droughts in various climatic areas in Inner Mongolia may bring unpredictable disaster risks to local agricultural production. The whole region was divided into five climatic areas, and monthly data was received from 46 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012. Twenty meteorological stations from 2014 to 2020 were selected to calculate the different time scales of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) using precipitation and reference evapotranspiration from the Penman-Monteith method to reveal the drought characteristics and its dominant meteorological factors during the crop growing season (May-September) in Inner Mongolia. A monthly drought during the crop growing season was revealed. The high-incidence month and region of drought in the growing season in various climatic areas were identified by the SPEI of a 1-month scale, and a stepwise linear regression method was selected and verified to extract the dominant meteorological factors driving the drought in each month and the whole growing season in various climatic areas. Results indicated that the following: (1) from the interannual changes, the drought from 1998 to 2008 was more serious, and the drought in other years was less serious. (2) The largest drought area and degree appeared in May during the crop growing season. The probability of moderate drought in the moist and semi-humid area was 37% higher compared to the hyper-arid area, while the extreme drought probably occurred in the moist and semi-humid area and dry and semi-humid area. (3) Dominant meteorological factors driving the drought varied in the crop growth period of various climatic areas in Inner Mongolia. Precipitation and a minimum temperature were the main impact factors for a drought in the crop growing season. (4) Using limited meteorological data, the regression models in each climate region performance well can be used to estimate the monthly SPEI. The results provide a theoretical basis for scientific evaluation of drought characteristics in the spring maize growing season and formulates reasonable measures of response to the drought.

Key words: climate areas, drought characteristics, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, meteorological factors, regression models, growing season of crops, Inner Mongolia

高晓瑜,汤鹏程,张莎,屈忠义,杨威. 内蒙古各气候区主要作物生长季干旱特征及其与响应因子回归模型[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1410-1427.

GAO Xiaoyu,TANG Pengcheng,ZHANG Sha,QU Zhongyi,YANG Wei. Drought characteristics and regression models of drought characteristics and response factors of various climatic areas in Inner Mongolia during main crop growing season[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1410-1427.

图/表 13

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

表3

各气候区作物生长季5—9月最佳逐步线性回归模型与回归系数"

气候区	月份	模型变量	R²	未标准化系数	标准化系数	显著性
湿润半湿润气候区	5	（常量）	0.148	-1.875		0
		T_min		0.096	0.34	0
		P		0.006	0.237	0.005
	6	（常量）	0.635	-0.012		0.995
		RHU		0.063	0.319	0
		SSD		-0.166	-0.206	0.02
		T_min		0.199	0.39	0
		T_max		-0.21	-0.449	0
	7	（常量）	0.879	-1.962		0
	7	P	0.879	0.022	0.937	0
	8	（常量）	0.861	-1.111		0
		P		0.021	0.921	0
		T_max		-0.027	-0.076	0.024
	9	（常量）	0.845	-0.939		0
	9	P	0.845	0.026	0.919	0
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.72	3.692		0.023
		SSD		-0.158	-0.243	0.001
		RHU		0.043	0.251	0.001
		T_min		0.469	1.514	0
		T_mean		-0.585	-1.55	0
		WS		-0.369	-0.24	0.003
干旱半湿润气候区	5	（常量）	0.272	24.174		0.003
		T_min		0.223	0.664	0
		WS		-0.588	-0.294	0.001
		APS		-0.027	-0.463	0.002
	6	（常量）	0.71	-2.524		0.222
		RHU		0.084	0.531	0
		T_min		0.234	0.445	0
		T_max		-0.231	-0.481	0
	7	（常量）	0.806	-1.431		0
		P		0.017	0.882	0
		T_min		-0.03	-0.092	0.048
	8	（常量）	0.872	-1.668		0
	8	P	0.872	0.021	0.934	0
	9	（常量）	0.801	-1.108		0
	9	P	0.801	0.03	0.895	0
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.726	10.932		0.082
		RHU		0.069	0.496	0
		T_min		0.517	1.641	0
		T_mean		-0.522	-1.243	0
		APS		-0.013	-0.276	0.041
半干旱气候区	5	（常量）	0.097	0.105		0.643
		WS		-0.191	-0.251	0
		RHU		-0.011	-0.161	0
		SSD		-0.057	-0.114	0.002
	6	（常量）	0.543	0.896		0
		RHU		0.047	0.447	0
		WS		-0.252	-0.167	0
		T_max		-0.231	-0.586	0
		T_min		0.188	0.481	0.036
		SSD		-0.011	-0.049	0
	7	（常量）	0.864	-1.938		0
	7	P	0.864	0.021	0.93	0
	8	（常量）	0.794	-1.574		0
	8	P	0.794	0.022	0.891	0
	9	（常量）	0.785	-0.812		0
		P		0.024	0.882	0
		WS		-0.066	-0.058	0
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.605	1.616		0
		RHU		0.055	0.638	0
		WS		-0.21	-0.203	0
		APS		-0.003	-0.23	0
		T_min		0.137	0.532	0
		T_max		-0.139	-0.481	0
		SSD		-0.043	-0.101	0
干旱气候区	5	（常量）	0.02	-1.535		0
	5	Tmin	0.02	0.031	0.14	0.036
	6	（常量）	0.511	0.762		0.133
		RHU		0.029	0.45	0
		SSD		-0.053	-0.115	0.04
		T_max		-0.163	-0.639	0
		T_min		0.132	0.485	0
	7	（常量）	0.908	-3.557		0
		P		0.021	0.945	0
		T_min		0.081	0.073	0.001
		WS		0.084	0.046	0.048
	8	（常量）	0.861	3.789		0
		P		0.022	0.926	0
		APS		-0.006	-0.071	0.005
	9	（常量）	0.862	-0.623		0
		P		0.021	0.928	0
		WS		-0.047	-0.055	0.03
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.504	0.593		0.167
		RHU		0.026	0.519	0
		SSD		-0.05	-0.094	0.08
		T_max		-0.138	-0.668	0
		T_min		0.112	0.496	0
特干旱气候区	5	（常量）	0.097	-1.186		0
		T_min		0.061	0.256	0.001
		WS		-0.148	-0.317	0
		RHU		-0.008	-0.173	0.037
	6	（常量）	0.543	-5.092		0
		RHU		0.022	0.574	0
		APS		0.004	0.375	0
		SSD		-0.059	-0.21	0.017
	7	（常量）	0.864	-1.843		0
	7	P	0.864	0.02	0.955	0
	8	（常量）	0.794	-1.537		0
	8	P	0.794	0.023	0.949	0
	9	（常量）	0.785	1.957		0.59
		P		0.024	0.837	0
		APS		-0.004	-0.144	0
		T_min		0.038	0.083	0.034
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.605	-2.776		0
		RHU		0.016	0.531	0
		SSD		-0.119	-0.441	0
		APS		0.003	0.362	0
全区	5	（常量）	0.125	1.336		0
		T_min		0.089	0.553	0
		APS		-0.001	-0.084	0.004
		WS		-0.12	-0.182	0
		RHU		-0.014	-0.262	0
		T_mean		-0.073	-0.405	0
		SSD		-0.049	-0.107	0.001
	6	（常量）	0.478	0.241		0.561
		RHU		0.041	0.595	0
		T_min		0.183	0.601	0
		T_max		-0.158	-0.512	0
		SSD		-0.02	-0.07	0
		APS		-0.001	-0.062	0.037
	7	（常量）	0.877	-1.958		0
	7	P	0.877	0.021	0.936	0
	8	（常量）	0.834	-0.281		0.337
		P		0.022	0.901	0
		APS		-0.002	-0.057	0
		T_min		0.016	0.034	0.002
	9	（常量）	0.803	-0.1		0.59
		P		0.024	0.894	0
		APS		-0.001	-0.048	0
		WS		-0.045	-0.043	0
	生长季平均	（常量）	0.529	0.156		0.55
		RHU		0.039	0.798	0
		T_min		0.103	0.51	0
		APS		-0.002	-0.173	0
		SSD		-0.057	-0.141	0
		T_max		-0.057	-0.266	0

表3

表4

图8

表5

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干旱等级	SPEI范围
正常	>-0.5
轻旱	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5
中旱	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0
重旱	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5
特旱	≤-2.0

气候区	SPEI-1值与主导气象因子回归方程	气候区	SPEI-1值与主导气象因子回归方程
湿润半湿润气候区	SPEI-1₅=-1.875+0.096T_min+0.006P	干旱气候区	SPEI-1₅=-1.535+0.031T_min
	SPEI-1₆=-0.012+0.063RHU-0.166SSD+0.199T_min-0.210T_max		SPEI-1₆=0.762+0.029 RHU-0.053SSD-0.163T_max+0.132T_min
	SPEI-1₇=-1.962+0.022P		SPEI-1₇=-3.557+0.021 P+0.081 T_min+0.084WS
	SPEI-1₈=-1.111+0.021P-0.027T_max		SPEI-1₈=3.789+0.022 P-0.006APS
	SPEI-1₉=-0.939+0.026P		SPEI-1₉=-0.623+0.021P-0.047WS
	SPEI-1_mean=3.692-0.158SSD+0.043RHU+0.469T_min-0.585T_mean-0.369WS		SPEI-1_mean=0.593+0.026RHU-0.050SSD-0.138T_max+0.112T_min
干旱半湿润气候区	SPEI-1₅=24.174+0.223T_min-0.588WS-0.027APS	特干旱气候区	SPEI-1₅=-1.186+0.061T_min-0.148WS-0.008RHU
	SPEI-1₆=-2.524+0.084RHU+0.234T_min-0.231T_max		SPEI-1₆=-5.092+0.022 RHU+0.004APS-0.059SSD
	SPEI-1₇=-1.431+0.017P-0.030T_min		SPEI-1₇=-1.843+0.020 P
	SPEI-1₈=-1.668+0.021P		SPEI-1₈=-1.537+0.023 P
	SPEI-1₉=-1.108+0.030P		SPEI-1₉=1.957+0.024P-0.004APS+0.038T_min
	SPEI-1_mean=10.932+0.069RHU+0.517T_min-0.522T_mean-0.013APS		SPEI-1_mean=-2.776+0.016RHU-0.119SSD+0.003APS
半干旱气候区	SPEI-1₅=0.105-0.191WS-0.011RHU-0.057SSD	全区	SPEI-1₅=1.336+0.089T_min-0.01APS-0.12WS-0.014RHU-0.073T_mean+0.049SSD
	SPEI-1₆=0.896+0.047RHU-0.252WS-0.231T_max+0.188T_min-0.011SSD		SPEI-1₆=0.24+0.041RHU+0.183T_min-0.158T_max-0.02SSD-0.001APS
	SPEI-1₇=-1.938+0.021P		SPEI-1₇=-1.958+0.021P
	SPEI-1₈=-1.574+0.022P		SPEI-1₈=-0.281+0.022P-0.002APS+0.016T_min
	SPEI-1₉=-0.812+0.024P-0.066WS		SPEI-1₉=-0.1+0.024P-0.001APS-0.045WS
	SPEI-1_mean=1.616+0.055RHU-0.210WS-0.003APS+0.137T_min-0.139T_max-0.043SSD		SPEI-1_mean=0.156+0.039RHU+0.103T_min- 0.002APS-0.057SSD-0.057T_max

内蒙古各气候区主要作物生长季干旱特征及其与响应因子回归模型

Drought characteristics and regression models of drought characteristics and response factors of various climatic areas in Inner Mongolia during main crop growing season

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区域	项目	月份					生长季平均
区域	项目	5	6	7	8	9	生长季平均
湿润半湿润区	Kolmogorov-Smirnov显著性	0.605	0.990	0.566	0.945	0.620	0.523
湿润半湿润区	是否满足正态分布	是	是	是	是	是	是
干旱半湿润区	Kolmogorov-Smirnov显著性	0.154	0.692	0.502	0.740	0.801	0.944
干旱半湿润区	是否满足正态分布	是	是	是	是	是	是
半干旱区	Kolmogorov-Smirnov显著性	0.724	0.760	0.56	0.676	0.225	0.988
半干旱区	是否满足正态分布	是	是	是	是	是	是
干旱区	Kolmogorov-Smirnov显著性	0.666	0.697	0.350	0.433	0.666	0.934
干旱区	是否满足正态分布	是	是	是	是	是	是
特旱区	Kolmogorov-Smirnov显著性	0.830	0.911	0.963	0.251	0.101	0.420
特旱区	是否满足正态分布	是	是	是	是	是	是

气候区	月份	RMSE	NSE	R²	b	MRE
湿润半湿润气候区	5	0.36	0.52	0.53	0.93	19%
	6	0.57	0.68	0.65	0.65	-11%
	7	0.77	0.77	0.93	0.95	-0.1%
	8	0.67	0.79	0.86	1.12	0.4%
	9	0.54	0.66	0.92	0.84	11%
	生长季	0.29	0.69	0.7	0.66	-11%
干旱半湿润气候区	5	0.43	0.05	0.21	0.98	8%
	6	0.73	0.61	0.63	0.64	-27%
	7	0.39	0.91	0.96	0.76	-32%
	8	0.29	0.97	0.97	0.98	-12%
	9	0.24	0.93	0.93	0.89	-15%
	生长季	0.26	0.51	0.68	0.99	-6%
半干旱气候区	5	0.41	-0.17	0	0.97	17%
	6	0.59	0.36	0.44	0.92	49%
	7	0.37	0.91	0.92	0.85	-25%
	8	0.44	0.86	0.86	0.80	-19%
	9	0.45	0.72	0.74	0.71	-15%
	生长季	0.43	-0.36	0.42	1.23	31%
干旱气候区	5	0.27	-0.34	0.42	0.91	-3%
	6	0.21	0.62	0.80	0.92	-7%
	7	0.21	0.84	0.86	1.00	8%
	8	0.15	0.97	0.97	0.93	-11%
	9	0.28	0.84	0.94	0.72	-7%
	生长季	0.23	0.21	0.54	1.09	28%
特干旱气候区	5	0.23	0.83	0.85	0.90	-6%
	6	0.07	0.63	0.77	0.99	-0.4%
	7	0.21	0.84	0.95	1.14	15%
	8	0.18	0.85	0.85	0.95	25%
	9	0.35	0.61	0.69	0.6	-1%
	生长季	0.18	0.55	0.79	0.88	6%
全区	5	0.53	-0.42	0.01	0.85	17%
	6	0.68	0.38	0.21	0.53	-39%
	7	0.54	0.82	0.83	0.86	-18%
	8	0.59	0.78	0.85	1.00	-5%
	9	0.48	0.69	0.33	0.86	-10%
	生长季	0.38	0.42	0.2	0.51	-41%

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