阴山北麓荒漠草原干旱气象因子分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.14

干旱区研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 1327-1334.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.14

阴山北麓荒漠草原干旱气象因子分析

尉迟文思^1,²(),苗恒录^1,²(),王星天^1,²,高天明^1,²,邬佳宾^1,²

1. 中国水利水电科学研究院,内蒙古阴山北麓荒漠草原生态水文野外科学观测研究站,北京 100038
2. 水利部牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特 010020

收稿日期:2020-07-27 修回日期:2020-12-22 出版日期:2021-09-15 发布日期:2021-09-24
通讯作者: 苗恒录
作者简介:尉迟文思（1992-）,女,硕士研究生,主要从事水土保持与荒漠化防治研究. E-mail: 2041840093@qq.com
基金资助:
中国水科院基本科研业务费专项项目(MK2020J09);内蒙古科技计划项目(21701024);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2019MS05001)

Analysis of meteorological factors affecting drought in a desert steppe of the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain

YUCHI Wensi^1,²(),MIAO Henglu^1,²(),WANG Xingtian^1,²,GAO Tianming^1,²,WU Jiabin^1,²

1. Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of Desert Steppe Eco-Hydrological System, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2. Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area, Ministry of Water Resources, Hohhot 010020, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2020-07-27 Revised:2020-12-22 Online:2021-09-15 Published:2021-09-24
Contact: Henglu MIAO

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

草原是西部生态环境建设的关键部分,其生态系统极易受到破坏。近年来荒漠草原干旱灾害频发,以内蒙古阴山北麓荒漠草原生态水文国家野外科学观测研究站为试验区,通过监测不同坡位的降水变化,分析气象因子与干旱指标PA值之间的联系与作用,并构建了回归模型。结果表明：（1）阴山北麓荒漠草原不同坡位的降水量为：下坡>中坡>上坡,对应的干旱指数PA值为：上坡_PA>中坡_PA>下坡_PA。（2）从各时间尺度观测可知：月尺度分析发现各坡位均出现不同程度的干旱现象,干旱频率较高;季尺度分析发现只在冬季出现轻旱现象;年尺度分析发现近5 a该区域未达到干旱阈值。说明该地区年均降水充足,未发生干旱灾害。（3）根据降水量、气温、风速等主要气象因子与干旱指数PA值构建的多元回归模型为：Y_PA=78.799+0.255x₁-3.395x₂-1.831x₃,R²为0.994,模型的拟合程度高,可以较好的反应出该区域的干旱情况。为进一步研究多气象因子与各类干旱指标之间的关系,以及构建旱情评价体系提供理论依据。

关键词: 降水量, 干旱指数, 荒漠草原, 阴山北麓, 多元线性回归

Abstract:

Steppe is a key part of the ecological environment construction in the west region, and its ecosystem is very fragile. In recent years, desert steppe drought disasters occur frequently. Taking the Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of Desert Steppe Eco-Hydrological System in Inner Mongolia as the experimental area, the precipitation changes at different slope positions are monitored, the relationship and function between meteorological factors and drought index PA value are analyzed, and a regression model is constructed. The results show that: (1) the precipitation at different slope positions of the desert steppe at the north foot of Yinshan Mountain is: downhill>middle slope>uphill, and the corresponding drought index PA value is: uphill_PA > middle slope_PA>downhill_PA (2) From the observation of each time scale, monthly scale analysis shows that there are different degrees of drought at each slope position, and the drought frequency is high; Seasonal scale analysis shows that light drought occurred only in winter; The annual scale analysis found that the region did not reach the drought threshold in recent 5 years. Overall, the average annual precipitation in this area is sufficient and there is no drought disaster. (3) The multiple regression model constructed according to the main meteorological factors such as precipitation, air temperature and wind speed and the drought index PA value is: Y_PA=78.799+0.255x₁-3.395x₂-1.831x₃, R²=0.994, the fitting degree of the model is high, which can better reflect the drought situation in the region. It provides a theoretical basis for further studying the relationship between multi meteorological factors and various drought indicators, as well as constructing drought evaluation system.

Key words: precipitation, drought index, desert steppe, the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain, multiple linear regression

尉迟文思,苗恒录,王星天,高天明,邬佳宾. 阴山北麓荒漠草原干旱气象因子分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(5): 1327-1334.

YUCHI Wensi,MIAO Henglu,WANG Xingtian,GAO Tianming,WU Jiabin. Analysis of meteorological factors affecting drought in a desert steppe of the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1327-1334.

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等级	类型	降水量距平百分率/%
等级	类型	月尺度	季尺度	年尺度
1	无旱	-40<PA	-25<PA	-15<PA
2	轻旱	-60<PA≤-40	-50<PA≤-25	-30<PA≤-15
3	中旱	-80<PA≤-60	-70<PA≤-50	-40<PA≤-30
4	重旱	-95<PA≤-80	-80<PA≤-70	-45<PA≤-40
5	特旱	PA≤-95	PA≤-80	PA≤-45

气象因子	平均值	标准差
降水量/mm	249.74	20.26
气温/℃	4.12	0.70
风速/(m·s^-1)	2.60	0.12
相对湿度/%	56.96	2.31
地温/℃	6.86	0.80
土壤水分/mm	12.46	0.40
太阳辐射/(W·m^-2)	200.92	4.06

主成分	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积方差贡献率/%
1	3.934	56.197	56.197
2	1.645	23.495	79.691
3	1.008	14.405	94.097

气象因子	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3
降水量/mm	-0.947	0.905	0.843
气温/℃	0.911	0.372	0.353
风速/(m·s^-1)	-0.587	0.206	-0.053
相对湿度/%	0.928	0.774	-0.214
地温/℃	0.803	0.160	0.276
土壤水分/mm	-0.488	-0.117	0.142
太阳辐射/(W·m^-2)	0.346	0.079	-0.167

模型	平方和	均方	F值	P值
回归	28.737	9.579	1350.735	0.000
残差	0.11	0.11
总计	28.748

阴山北麓荒漠草原干旱气象因子分析

Analysis of meteorological factors affecting drought in a desert steppe of the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain

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