腾格里沙漠南缘昌岭山1872年以来干湿变化研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取腾格里沙漠南缘对气候变化敏感的昌岭山为研究区,通过分析昌岭山优势树种青海云杉树轮宽度年表与气候因子的相关关系,得出5—7月PDSI（帕默尔干旱指数）与树轮宽度年表的相关性较强（r=0.621,P<0.001）,干旱是影响树木径向生长的主控气候因子;通过建立树轮宽度年表和PDSI的线性回归方程,重建了研究区过去146 a以来的PDSI干旱变化;同时基于重建的PDSI的年际变化表明：研究区在过去146 a间共经历了4个干旱期（1882—1894年,1915—1936年,1966—1978年,1989—2015年）。周期分析结果显示重建序列存在2 a、2.6~3 a、11 a左右的变化周期,说明研究区气候变化主要受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和太阳黑子活动的驱动。研究结论对于探讨中国西北干湿变化规律及预测未来气候变化条件下该区域亚高山森林生态系统的变化提供了科学依据。

关键词: 青海云杉, PDSI, 干湿历史变化, 树轮宽度年表, 昌岭山, 腾格里沙漠

Abstract:

The Changling Mountain in the Southeast of Tengger Desert, which is sensitive to climate change was selected as the study area. The correlation between PDSI (Palmer Drought Index) from May to July and tree-ring width chronology were strongthe (r=0.621, P<0.001). Drought was the main controlling climatic factor of the growth of dominant species Picea crassifolia in Changling Mountain through the analysis of correlation between tree-ring width chronologies and climate factors. By setting up a linear regression equation of tree-ring width chronology and PDSI, the drought-wet variation in the past 146 years was reconstructed. At the same time, there were four dry periods in all (1882-1894, 1915-1936, 1966-1978, and 1989-2015) in the past 146 years based on the reconstructed PDSI interannual variation. The period analysis results showed that the reconstructed sequence had periods of around 2 a, 2.6-3 a and 11 a, indicating that the driving factors of drought-wet variation were El Nino Southern Oscillation and sunspot activity in the study area. The research results provide a scientific basis for discussing the drought and wet variation rules in Northwest China and predicting changes in the subalpine forest ecosystem under the condition future climate change.

Key words: Picea crassifolia, PDSI, drought-wet historical variation, tree-ring width chronology, Changling Mountain, Tengger Desert

祁京,焦亮,陈可,柒常亮,薛儒鸿. 腾格里沙漠南缘昌岭山1872年以来干湿变化研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(5): 1318-1326.

QI Jing,JIAO Liang,CHEN Ke,QI Changliang,XUE Ruhong. Drought-wet variation of Changling Mountain in Southeast of Tengger Desert since 1872[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1318-1326.

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统计特征	统计值
序列长度	1855—2017年
平均敏感度（MS）	0.187
标准差（SD）	0.312
一阶自回归系数（AC1）	0.61
序列间相关系数（r1）	0.297
树内相关系数（r2）	0.6715
树间相关系数（r3）	0.28
第一主分量方差（PC1）/%	0.351
信噪比（SNR）	10.14
样本总体解释量（EPS）/%	0.91
信号强度(SSS)>0.85起始年（树芯数）	1872年（9）

时段	校准期					时段	检验期
时段	r	R²	R²_adj	F	ST	时段	r	RE	CE	ST
1951—1983年	0.589	0.347	0.323	14.329	23+/10-*	1984—2017年	0.657	0.353	0.344	30+/4-**
1984—2017年	0.657	0.432	0.409	19.009	30+/4-**	1951—1983年	0.589	0.439	0.430	23+/10-*
1951—2017年	0.621	0.386	0.375	33.949	48+/19-**