西北地区农业干旱脆弱性评估及时空分布特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

西北地区是重要农牧交错区，生态环境脆弱，农业生产对气候变化极为敏感，研究其农业干旱脆弱性时空分布特征是有效应对干旱气候的关键。基于IPCC评估框架，考虑蒸散对土壤含水量的影响，将多时间尺度干旱指数纳入指标体系，研究西北地区农业干旱脆弱性及其时空分布特征。结果表明：2010—2020年该地区农业干旱脆弱性呈现下降态势，其中2010—2015年下降幅度最大，但区域均衡性减弱，出现“两极”现象；2015—2020年脆弱重心逐渐向南部地区转移，形成“辐射”效应。该地区农业干旱脆弱性冷热点区域变化显著，2010年热点区域集中在新疆西南部，冷点区域分布在新疆北部和宁夏；2020年热点区域转移至甘肃和青海南部，且呈现向外辐射现象，冷点区域主要集中在新疆北部地区。

关键词: 西北地区, 农业干旱脆弱性, IPCC评估框架, 熵权法, 空间热点探测分析, 干旱指数

Abstract:

Northwest China is an important agro-pastoral interleaved region, with a fragile ecology and agricultural production that is extremely sensitive to climate change. Studying the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability is key to effectively coping with drought. Based on the IPCC vulnerability assessment framework, considering the impact of evapotranspiration on soil water content, a multi-timescale drought index was incorporated into the index system, and the entropy weight method was used to measure the vulnerability of agriculture to drought; the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability and the evolution of cold and hot spot areas were also analyzed. The results show that the vulnerability of agriculture to drought in the northwest region showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2020, with the largest decline in 2010 to 2015, but the regional equilibrium was weakened and there was a “polar” phenomenon. The cold and hot spots of drought vulnerability in the northwest region changed significantly. In 2010, the hot spots were concentrated in the southwest of Xinjiang, and the cold spots were distributed in the north of Xinjiang and Ningxia. In 2020, the hot spot area shifted to the south of Gansu and Qinghai, and showed an outward radiation phenomenon, while the cold spot area was mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang.

Key words: Northwest China, agricultural drought vulnerability, IPCC assessment framework, entropy weight method, analysis of space hot spot detection, drought index

李菲菲, 周霞, 周玉玺. 西北地区农业干旱脆弱性评估及时空分布特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 663-669.

LI Feifei, ZHOU Xia, ZHOU Yuxi. Vulnerability assessment and spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought in Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 663-669.

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要素层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	单位
暴露度（+）	干旱特征	干旱频次	年干旱发生的月份数次数	次
		干旱强度	标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）	-
		干旱趋势	干旱指数（PDSI）斜率	-
敏感性（+）	农用水压力	农业人口占比	农业人口/地区总人口	%
		农作物播种面积	-	10³ hm²
		大牲畜头数	大牲畜存栏头数	10⁴头
	土地压力	耕地复种指数	农作物播种面积/耕地面积	%
		单位播种面积化肥施用量	化肥施用量/农作物播种面积	t·hm^-2
		第一产业产值占比	第一产业产值/地区生产总值	%
适应能力（-）	经济水平	人均GDP	地区生产总值/地区总人口	元
	经济水平	农村居民可支配收入	-	元
	生产水平	农业机械总动力	农业机械总动力	Kw
	生产水平	粮食单产	粮食总产量/粮食播种面积	kg·hm^-2
	水利设施	水利建设投资额	水利建设固定资产投资额	%