干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 290-296.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2015.02.12

• 气候与气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于统计降尺度方法的高寒山区未来气候变化预估

穆振侠, 姜卉芳   

  1. 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-18 修回日期:2014-04-19 出版日期:2015-03-15 发布日期:2015-04-16
  • 作者简介:穆振侠(1980-),男,副教授,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail: muzhenxia@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51209181, 51469034);新疆农业大学水利工程博士后经费资助项目;新疆自治区地方公派出国留学成组配套项目(XJDF201307);新疆水文学及水资源重点学科基金项目(xjswszyzdxk20101202)

Estimate of the Climate Change in Alpine Mountains Areas based on Statistical Downscaling Method

MU Zhen-xia, JIANG Hui-fang   

  1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2013-06-18 Revised:2014-04-19 Published:2015-03-15 Online:2015-04-16

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摘要： 高寒山区未来气候变化预估,对于了解该区域未来水资源的变化和指导区域水资源的合理开发利用具有重要意义。基于实测气象站点数据、实测水文站点数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和全球气候模式HadCM3数据,采用统计降尺度方法预估了高寒山区未来(2020—2099年)气候变化情况。结果表明:① 率定的SDSM统计降尺度模型能够较好地反映降水与气温的变化趋势;② 协合拉站未来降水总体上呈减少趋势(尤其是7—8月),但在不同排放情景下波动变化较复杂;③ 协合拉站未来气温持续升高,尤其以2070s(2070—2079年)后较明显,升高幅度最大发生在8月;④ 未来该区域降水的减少及气温的升高将影响冰川与积雪的储量,加速高寒山区冰川与积雪的消融量,影响以冰雪融水补给为主河流的水资源量,进而影响区域社会经济的发展,加剧不同用水部门的矛盾。

关键词: 气候变化, 降水, 气温, 统计降尺度方法, 高寒山区

Abstract: Estimating the climate changes over alpine mountains areas is critical for understanding regional water resources changes and guiding reasonable water utilization and development. Based on the observed hydro-meteorological data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and HadCM3 outputs, the climate change (2020-2090) in alpine mountains areas is projected by statistical downscaling method. The results show that the performances of calibration SDSM model are basically acceptable. On the whole, future precipitation in Xiehela station showed a decreasing trend, especially in July and August. However, precipitation fluctuation is complex under different climate change scenarios. The future temperature will be continuously increased, especially in the 2070s. Due to precipitation reduced, glaciers and snow reserves will be affected in the future. With the increasing warming of the study area, it would accelerate the glacier and snow melt and have a greater impact on water resources supply to the rivers in the alpine mountain region. At last, it will affect the regional socio-economic development and aggravate the contradiction of different water use sectors.

Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, statistical downscaling method, alpine mountains areas