浅层地温,气候变化,气候突变,气候倾向率,玛曲,黄河上游," /> 浅层地温,气候变化,气候突变,气候倾向率,玛曲,黄河上游,"/> shallow geotemperature,climate change,abrupt climate change,linear trend,Maqu,upper reaches of the Yellow River,"/> 黄河上游玛曲地区浅层地温对气候变暖的响应
干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 802-807.

• 气候与气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河上游玛曲地区浅层地温对气候变暖的响应

宁和平1,2, 张建勇2, 方锋1, 敖泽建2   

  1. 1. 西北区域气候中心，甘肃 兰州 730020； 2. 甘肃省甘南州气象局，甘肃 合作 747000
  • 收稿日期:2012-08-21 修回日期:2012-10-09 出版日期:2013-09-15 发布日期:2013-09-22
  • 作者简介:宁和平（1976-），男，工程师，主要从事天气气候预测及决策气象服务等研究.E-mail: gs_hping@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局“气候变化情景下甘肃省未来40年干旱灾害趋势研究”项目资助

Response of Shallow Geotemperature to Climatic Change  in the Maqu Area in Upper Reaches of the Yellow River

 NING  He-Ping1,2, ZHANG  Jian-Yong2, FANG  Feng1, AO  Ze-Jian2   

  1. 1. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. Gannan Meteorological Bureau, Hezuo 747000, Gansu Province, China
  • Received:2012-08-21 Revised:2012-10-09 Published:2013-09-15 Online:2013-09-22

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摘要： 利用1971—2010年黄河上游玛曲地区5—10月浅层地温观测资料，采用气候倾向率等现代统计诊断方法，对玛曲地区近40 a来浅层地温的变化趋势、气候突变特征进行了分析。结果表明：黄河上游玛曲地区各月平均浅层地温以0.20~0.71 ℃·（10a）-1的速率上升，其中20 cm平均地温增温的趋势最显著，5 cm平均地温增幅最小，浅层地温升温的趋势随深度的增加而更为显著。在2000年之前，浅层地温以负距平变化为主，2000年之后为正距平。20世纪70年代浅层地温最低，2001—2010年达到最高。1971—2010年夏季玛曲地区5、10、15、20 cm浅层平均地温均发生了升高突变。夏季浅层平均地温与同期的平均气温呈显著的正相关,其中20 cm平均地温与同期平均气温的相关性最为显著，相关系数达到0.922，且两者在变化趋势上有着很强的一致性。夏季浅层平均地温与冬季降水量存在一定的正相关，其变化对冬季降水量产生了一定的影响。

关键词: font-family: 宋体, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, 浅层地温')">mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">浅层地温, 气候变化, 气候突变, 气候倾向率, 玛曲, 黄河上游

Abstract: In this paper, the change trend and abrupt change of shallow geotemperature in the Maqu area in upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent 40 years (1971-2010) were analyzed using the statistical methods, such as the linear trend and abrupt change analysis. The results showed that the mean monthly shallow geotemperature was significantly increased with an increase rate of 0.20-0.71 ℃·（10a）-1, especially in soil layer of 20 cm in depth, and the increase of mean monthly shallow geotemperature at soil depth of 5 cm was the least. Shallow geotmeperature in the Maqu area increased with the increase of depth, and its anomaly was negative before 2000 but positive after 2000. The results suggested that the shallow geotemperature be the lowest in the 1970s, and its peak value occurred in the 2000s. There was an abrupt increase of summer shallow geotemperature at depths of 5, 10, 15 and 20 cm in the 1990s, and also a positive correlation between summer shallow geotemperature and summer air temperature, especially the correlation coefficient between mean summer geotemperature in soil layer of 20 cm in depth and summer air temperature was as high as 0.922. The change trends of both mean summer geotemperature in soil layer of 20 cm and air temperature were strongly consistent. There was a certain positive correlation between summer shallow geotemperature and mean winter precipitation, and the change of summer shallow geotemperature affected the winter precipitation to a certain extent.  

Key words: font-family: 宋体, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, shallow geotemperature')">mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">shallow geotemperature, font-family: 宋体, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, climate change')">mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">climate change, abrupt climate change, linear trend, Maqu, upper reaches of the Yellow River