近50 a中国西北地区东部降水特征

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用我国西北地区东部54个气象站1960—2009年的降水资料,采用M-K检验和小波分析方法,对该地区的降水特征进行了分析。结果表明:① 西北地区东部降水量呈微弱下降趋势,1990年后降水减少趋势更为明显,Ⅱ区降水变化趋势较Ⅰ区更加显著;② 该地区降水频次以弱降水和中等强度降水为主,占降水总天数的70%以上,弱降水频次减少趋势显著;③ 中等强度降水和强降水的降水量占全年降水的75%以上,中等降水的降水量呈减少趋势,是造成年降水量减少的主要原因;④ 小波分析结果显示,年降水、中等降水和强降水序列均存在显著的3 a和5 a短周期,其中Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区的中等降水和强降水小波周期在20世纪70年代之后完全不同,中等降水的减少与70年代周期的变长密切相关。

关键词: 降水频率, 降水强度, Mann-Kendall, 小波分析, 西北地区东部

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data observed by 54 meteorological stations in the eastern part of northwest China during the period of 1960-2009, the variation of precipitation in this region was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The main results were as follows: (1) Precipitation in the study area was in a slight decrease trend, the precipitation reduction was more obvious after 1990, and the variation of precipitation in area Ⅱwas more significant than that in area I; (2) The precipitation frequency in the study area was dominated by weak and moderate precipitation events, which accounted about 70% of the total precipitation days, and the decrease of weak precipitation frequency was obvious; (3) The proportion of moderate and heavy precipitation accounted for more than 75% of annual precipitation. Decrease of annual precipitation was mainly caused by the decrease of moderate precipitation; (4) The results of wavelet analysis revealed that there were the 3-year and 5-year fluctuation periodicities of annual, moderate and heavy precipitation, the periodicities of moderate and heavy precipitation in area I were completely different from those in area Ⅱafter the 1970s, and the decrease of moderate precipitation was closely related to the variation of moderate precipitation in the 1970s.

Key words: precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity, Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis, eastern part of northwest China

王晖, 隆霄, 马旭林, 刘燕飞. 近50 a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(4): 712-718.

WANG Hui, LONG Xiao, MA Xu-lin, LIU Yan-fei. Precipitation in the Eastern Part of Northwest China in Recent 50 Years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(4): 712-718.

参考文献

[1] 朱炳海.中国的降水区划[J]. 南京大学学报,1957(4):1-20.
[Zhu Binghai.To delimit the rainfall regions in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University,1957(4):1-20.]
[2] 冯建民,梁旭,张智,等.“西北”中东部及内蒙古西部降水的多尺度特征[J]. 气象科学,2005,25(5):474-483.
[Feng Jianmin,Liang Xu,Zhang Zhi,et al.Analysis on multi-scale features of precipitation in east and middle part of northwest China and west Mongloia[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2005,25(5):474-483.]
[3] 姚辉.中国西北降水分区及其近代变化分析[J]. 干旱区地理,1992,15(4):27-33.
[Yao Hui.Division and changes of precipitation in the northwest of China in recent several ten years[J]. Arid Land Geography,1992,15(4):27-33.]
[4] 郭慕萍,王志伟,秦爱民,等.54年来中国西北地区降水量变化[J]. 干旱区研究,2009,26(1):120-124.
[Guo Mupin,Wang Zhiwei,Qin Aimin,et al.Changes in precipitation in northwest China over the last 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(1):120-124.]
[5] 谢金南,周嘉陵.西北地区中、东部降水趋势的初步研究[J]. 高原气象,2001,20(4):362-367.
[Xie Jinnan,Zhou Jialing.A preliminary study on trends and interannual variaration of precipitation in central and western portions of northwest region of China[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2001,20(4):362-367.]
[6] 黄玉霞,李栋梁,王宝鉴,等.西北地区近40年年降水异常的时空特征分析[J]. 高原气象,2004,23(2):245-252.
[Huang Yuxia,Li Dongliang,Wang Baojian,et al.Analysis on temporal-spatial features of annual precipitation in northwest China in 1961-2000[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2004,23(2):245-252.]
[7] 王澄海,李健,李小兰,等.近50 a中国降水变化的准周期性特征及未来的变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究,2012,19(1):1-10.
[Wang Chenghai,Li Jian,Li Xiaolan,et al.Analysis on quasi-periodic characteristics of precipitation in recent 50 years and trend in next 20 years in China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2012,19(1):1-10.]
[8] 王宝鉴,何金海,黄玉霞.西北地区近40年6-9月降水的异常特征分析[J]. 气象,2004,30(6):28-31.
[Wang Baojian,He Jinhai,Huang Yuxia.Analysis of precipitation characteristics from June to September in northwest China for last 40 years[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2004,30(6):28-31.]
[9] 陈东东,戴永久.近五十年中国西北地区夏季降水场变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 大气科学,2009,33(6):1 247-1 257.
[Chen Dongdong,Dai Yongjiu.Characteristics and analysis of typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in northwest China over the last 50 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(6):1 247-1 257.]
[10] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京:气象出版社,2007:69-70.
[Wei Fengying.Modern Climatic Statical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorology Press,2007:69-70.]
[11] 苏布达,王国杰,姜彤.西北地区45 a来降水异常的时空变化及其标度特征[J]. 冰川冻土,2007,29(2):176-182.
[Su Buda,Wang Guojie,Jiang Tong.Spatial and temporal variations and scaling of precipitation over northwest China during 1960-2004[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2007,29(2):176-182.]
[12] 王金花,康玲玲,史学建,等.黄河中游多沙粗沙区近40年降水特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):44-50.
[Wang Jinhua,Kang Lingling,Shi Xuejian,et al.The dekad precipitation characters in recent 40 years in sandy area in the mid-Yellow River[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(11):44-50.]
[13] 俞亚勋,王劲松,李青燕.西北地区空中水汽时空分布及变化趋势分析[J]. 冰川冻土,2003,25(2):151-156.
[Yu Yaxun,Wang Jinsong,Li Qingyan.Spatial and temporal distribution of water vapor and its variation trend in atmosphere over northwest China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2003,25(2):151-156.]
[14] 郭江勇,李耀辉.中国西北地区夏季降水的气候特征[J]. 干旱区研究,2006,23(3):489-494.
[Guo Jiangyong,Li Yaohui.Climatic characteristics of summer precipitation in norethwestern China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2006,23(3):489-494.]
[15] 杨晓玲,丁文魁,郭利梅.河西走廊东部的降水特征[J]. 干旱区研究,2010,27(5):663-668.
[Yang Xiaoling,Ding Wenkui,Guo Limei.Analysis on the basic characteristics of precipitation in the east Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Zone Research,2010,27(5):663-668.]
[16] 王澄海,崔洋.西北地区近50年降水周期的稳定性分析[J]. 地球科学进展,2006,21(6):576-584.
[Wang Chenghai,Cui Yang.A study of the stability of the precipitation cycle over northwest China in the past 50 years[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(6):576-584.]