干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 299-307.

• 气候及气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测——以兰州市为例

李国栋1，张俊华1，王乃昂2，程弘毅2，赵丽萍3   

  1. 1.河南大学环境与规划学院，河南 开封475000； 2.兰州大学资源环境学院，甘肃 兰州730000；3.广东商学院，广东 广州510320
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-07 修回日期:2012-09-29 出版日期:2013-03-15 发布日期:2013-03-29
  • 作者简介:李国栋（1978-），男，博士，副教授，主要从事城市气候和气候变化方面的研究. E-mail: liguodonghd@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金（41101088，40901021）；河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(12A170002)；广东高校优秀青年创新人才培育项目（LYM10080）；河南大学自然科学基金项目（2011YBZR034）

Prediction of Climate Change Trend Based on Rescaled Range Analysis  and Nonperiodic Cycle Analysis—A Case Study in Lanzhou City

LI Guo-dong1 ,ZHANG Jun-hua1 ,WANG Nai-ang2 ,CHENG Hong-yi2 ,ZHAO Li-ping3   

  1. 1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, Henan, China; 2. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China; 3. Guangdong University of Business Studies, Guangzhou 510320, Guang dong, China
  • Received:2012-04-07 Revised:2012-09-29 Published:2013-03-15 Online:2013-03-29

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摘要： 利用兰州市区及周边5个气象站的气象数据，通过重标极差分析（R/S）和非周期循环分析，计算兰州市气温、降水和城市热岛强度时间序列的Hurst指数、分维数和非周期循环的平均循环长度，分析气温、降水和城市热岛强度时间序列的变化趋势、长期记忆效应和记忆周期。结果表明：兰州市四季和年平均气温呈现上升趋势，变化趋势具有持续性特征。年均、春、夏、秋、冬季气温序列的平均循环长度分别为9 a、4 a、8 a、5 a和6 a。兰州市春、冬季降水量仍将持续递减，夏季降水持续递增；年平均和秋季降水量变化过程具有反持续性，未来的年平均和秋季降水量将出现增加的趋势，年均、春、夏、秋、冬季降水量序列的平均循环长度分别为9 a、7 a、10 a、12 a和13 a。兰州热岛强度冬季最强，夏季最弱，春秋居中；1月平均热岛强度为1.6 ℃，7月平均热岛强度为0.1 ℃。近50 a兰州市热岛强度逐渐增强，线性趋势达到0.46 ℃•(10a)-1，未来兰州市热岛强度的变化趋势将以目前的速率持续增强。将定量描述长程依赖性的重标极差分析和非周期循环分析二者结合起来，应用于气候变化的趋势预测研究，是一种新颖、科学、可行的非线性研究方法。

关键词: 重标极差分析（R/S）, 非周期循环分析, 气温, 降水, 热岛效应, 气候变化, 趋势预测, 兰州

Abstract: Based on two methods of R/S and nonperiodic cycle analysis, the values of Hurst parameter H, fractal dimension D and noncycle average cycle length of temperature and precipitation at time series in Lanzhou City were calculated, and then the variation trends, longterm memory effects and memory cycles of temperature and precipitation at the time series were analyzed. The results show that the values of  H and  D of average seasonal and annual temperature varied in ranges of 0.5-1 and 1-1.5 respectively, there was a fractal structure, and average seasonal and annual temperature was in a continuous increase trend. Average cycle lengths of average annual and spring, summer, autumn and winter temperature at time series were 9 years, 4 years, 8 years, 5 years and 6 years respectively. Precipitation in spring and winter will continuously decrease but increase in summer.  H  and  D of average annual and autumn precipitation series with longterm negative correlation will vary in ranges of 0-0.5 and 1.5-2 respectively, the change process has an antipersistent character, the average annual and autumn precipitation in the future will in an increase trend, average cycle lengths of average annual, spring, summer, autumn and winter precipitation at time series will be 9 years, 7 years, 10 years, 12 years and 13 years respectively. Precipitation in the past will affect that in the future for a long time. The study revealed that the methods of R/S and nonperiodic cycle analysis are new, scientific and reliable in predicting regional climate change.

Key words: rescaled range analysis, nonperiodic cycle analysis, temperature, precipitation, heat island effect, climate change, trend prediction, Lanzhou