山西北部地区极端降水时空变化及其大气环流特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.02

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 1966-1981.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.02

山西北部地区极端降水时空变化及其大气环流特征

蔡霞¹(), 宋燕²(), 宿欣³, 牛涛⁴, 亢振昊⁵, 王倩君¹

1.山西省朔州市气象局，山西朔州 036002
2.中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081
3.中国气象局华风气象传媒集团，北京 100081
4.中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081
5.山西省忻州市气象局，山西忻州 034000

收稿日期:2025-05-22 修回日期:2025-07-07 出版日期:2025-11-15 发布日期:2025-12-13
通讯作者: 宋燕. E-mail: songyan@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:蔡霞（1975-），女，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化研究、农业气象服务、气象灾害研究等工作. E-mail: caixiaqx@sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41575091);中国气象局气象干部培训学院科研项目(中国气候影响因子研究);山西省气象局课题(SXKMSQH20236329);山西省气象局课题(2024年度朔州市基础研究项目)

Spatiotemporal variations and atmospheric circulation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the northern region of Shanxi Province

CAI Xia¹(), SONG Yan²(), SU Xin³, NIU Tao⁴, KANG Zhenhao⁵, WANG Qianjun¹

1. Meteorological Bureau of Shuozhou City, Shuozhou 036002, Shanxi, China
2. China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
3. China Meteorological Administration Huafeng Meteorological Media Group, Beijing 100081, China
4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
5. Meteorological Bureau of Xinzhou City, Xinzhou 034000, Shanxi, China

Received:2025-05-22 Revised:2025-07-07 Published:2025-11-15 Online:2025-12-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1972—2022年逐日降水资料、ERA5高分辨率逐月再分析资料，应用经验正交函数（Empirical Orthogonal Function，EOF）分解、合成分析等方法，分析山西北部地区极端降水年际和年代际变率特征。结果表明：（1）山西北部10个极端降水指数空间分布特征为西南部高于东北部地区，而持续湿期日数（Consecutive Wet Days，CWD）中部大于东部和西部。2010年之后山西北部旱涝交替、极端事件频发。（2）夏季极端降水偏多年，山西北部受贝加尔湖地区异常槽区底部控制，得到源于西太平洋、日本海、南海的水汽输送，对流层上层200 hPa存在辐散异常，垂直方向存在显著的上升运动异常，造成夏季极端降水增多、强度偏强。极端降水偏少年，山西北部受贝加尔湖较强的高压脊向东南方向发展影响，北方干冷空气南下阻挡水汽输送，对流层大气动力条件也不利于产生极端降水。（3）在年代际时间尺度上，山西北部地区呈西南部极端降水偏多、东北部偏少的空间分布特征。极端降水多雨时段（2009—2016年），山西北部存在异常的偏北气流和局地气旋环流，有冷暖空气交汇，西南部地区有强的低空辐合和显著的上升运动异常，有利于极端降水增多；少雨时段（1982—1990年）的特征则相反。

关键词: 山西北部地区, 极端降水, 时空变化, 旱涝交替, 大气环流异常

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data from 1972 to 2022 and the ERA5 high-resolution monthly reanalysis data, the empirical orthogonal function “decomposition” and synthetic analysis methods were applied to analyze the interannual and interdecadal variability characteristics of extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi Province. Among the 10 extreme precipitation indices in northern Shanxi Province, the spatial distribution characteristics were greater in the southwestern region than the northeastern region, while the duration of the wet period was greater in the central region than the eastern and western regions. After 2010, northern Shanxi Province experienced frequent extreme weather events with alternating droughts and floods. Extreme precipitation occurred during the summer over many years. Weather events in northern Shanxi Province are controlled by the bottom of an abnormal trough area in the Baikal Lake region, and water vapor is transported from the Western Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Japan, and the South China Sea. There is a divergence anomaly at 200 hPa in the upper troposphere and a significant upward movement anomaly in the vertical direction, resulting in an increased frequency and stronger intensity of extreme precipitation in summer. Extreme precipitation is expected to occur in northern Shanxi Province. Affected by the strong high-pressure ridge of Lake Baikal moving southeastward, dry cold air from the north moves southward, blocking the movement of water vapor. The dynamic conditions of the troposphere are not conducive to the generation of extreme precipitation. The decadal time scale revealed a spatial distribution characteristic of more extreme precipitation in the southwest region and less in the northeast region of northern Shanxi Province. During the period of extreme precipitation and heavy rainfall (2009-2016), the convergence of cold and warm air masses generated abnormal northerly airflows and local cyclone circulation in northern Shanxi Province. In the southwestern region, there were strong low-altitude convergence and significant upward movement anomalies, which were conducive to more frequent extreme precipitation. The characteristics of the period with less rainfall (1982-1990) were the opposite.

Key words: northern Shanxi Province, extreme precipitation, temporal and spatial changes, alternate drought and flooding, atmospheric circulation anomalies

蔡霞, 宋燕, 宿欣, 牛涛, 亢振昊, 王倩君. 山西北部地区极端降水时空变化及其大气环流特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(11): 1966-1981.

CAI Xia, SONG Yan, SU Xin, NIU Tao, KANG Zhenhao, WANG Qianjun. Spatiotemporal variations and atmospheric circulation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the northern region of Shanxi Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 1966-1981.

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指数代号	指数名称	指数定义	单位
R10 mm	中雨以上日数	日降水量≥10 mm的日数	d
R20 mm	大雨以上日数	日降水量≥20 mm的日数	d
R50 mm	暴雨以上日数	日降水量≥50 mm的日数	d
R95p	强降水量	日降水量>95%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
R99p	极强降水量	日降水量>99%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
CDD	持续干期日数	日降水量<1 mm的最大持续日数	d
CWD	持续湿期日数	日降水量≥1 mm的最大持续日数	d
Rx1day	1 d最大降水量	每月最大1 d降水量	mm
Rx5day	5 d最大降水量	每月连续5 d最大降水量	mm
PRCPTOT	年总降水量	日降水量>1 mm的年累计降水量	mm
SDII	日降水强度	年降水总量与降水日数（日降水量≥1 mm）的比值	mm·d^-1

		R10 mm	R20 mm	R50 mm	R95p	R99p	CWD	CDD	PRCPTOT	Rx1day	Rx5day	SDII
方差贡	EOF1	47.5	39.8	29.1	43.2	32.0	32.5	52.7	59.1	30.7	43.1	52.3
献率/%	EOF2	9.5	10.8	11.5	11.9	11.1	10.0	7.3	7.9	11.3	9.8	10.7

	海拔高度	SDII	PRCPTOT	Rx1day	Rx5day	R95p	R99p	R10 mm	R20 mm	R50 mm	CDD	CWD
SDII	0.144	1.000
PRCPTOT	0.766^***	0.751^***	1.000
Rx1day	0.338^**	0.737^***	0.715^***	1.000
Rx5day	0.498^***	0.886^***	0.768^***	0.838^***	1.000
R95p	0.704^***	0.907^***	0.788^***	0.857^***	0.920^***	1.000
R99p	0.666^***	0.800^***	0.685^***	0.924^***	0.890^***	0.909^***	1.000
R10 mm	0.775^***	0.728^***	0.943^***	0.547^***	0.649^***	0.644^***	0.511^***	1.000
R20 mm	0.596^***	0.918^***	0.880^***	0.718^***	0.865^***	0.915^***	0.747^***	0.825^***	1.000
R50 mm	0.398^***	0.821^***	0.696^***	0.911^***	0.880^***	0.918^***	0.981^***	0.525^***	0.766^***	1.000
CDD	-0.749^***	0.064	-0.083	-0.153	-0.046	0.012	-0.109	-0.052	0.043	-0.109	1.000
CWD	0.775^***	0.299^**	0.627^***	0.262	0.334^**	0.358^***	0.261	0.577^***	0.493^***	0.258	-0.027	1

指数代号	多雨年时段	显著性 T检验	少雨年时段	显著性 T检验
R10 mm	2009—2018年	4.140^***	1995—2008年	-2.789^***
R20 mm			1981—1990年	-2.967^***
R20 mm	2008—2018年	3.107^***	1999—2007年	-2.156^**
R50 mm	1991—1995年	2.829^***	1978—1990年	-2.703^***
R50 mm	2008—2016年	2.560^**	1996—2007年	-1.708^*
R95p	1977—1980年	1.880^*	1981—1990年	-3.538^***
R95p	2013—2018年	3.045^***	2000—2007年	-2.101^**
R99p	1976—1980年	2.077^**	1981—1990年	-3.483^***
	1991—1995年	2.399^**	2000—2007年	-2.494^**
	2013—2016年	1.731^*
Rx1day	1976—1980年	2.205^**	1981—2005年	-3.338^***
Rx1day	2006—2016年	3.626^***
Rx5day	1977—1981年	2.634^**	1982—1991年	-3.364^***
Rx5day	2012—2018年	2.850^***
SDII	1991—1999年	2.334^**	1976—1990年	-3.221^***
SDII	2013—2018年	3.714^***	2000—2007年	-1.735^*
PRCPTOT			1982—1990年	-1.999^*
PRCPTOT	2009—2018年	3.932^***	1995—2008年	-2.924^***
CWD	1976—1982年	2.933^***	1995—2005年	-4.230^***
CDD	1992—2000年	2.367^**	1986—1991年	-2.350^**
CDD	2008—2018年	2.085^**	2001—2007年	-3.556^***

山西北部地区极端降水时空变化及其大气环流特征

Spatiotemporal variations and atmospheric circulation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the northern region of Shanxi Province

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