干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 359-367.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.03

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

咸海流域降水时空特征及趋势分析

王浩轩1(),黄峰1,2(),郭利丹2,3,钟瑞森4   

  1. 1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098
    2.河海大学国际河流研究中心,江苏 南京 211100
    3.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100
    4.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-16 修回日期:2021-09-07 出版日期:2022-03-15 发布日期:2022-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 黄峰
  • 作者简介:王浩轩(1997-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为生态水文. E-mail: 465412917@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中亚地区咸海危机中的博弈与合作(2020.E-002);国家自然科学基金(42071049)

Analysis of tempo-spatial characteristics and trends of precipitation in the Aral Sea Basin

WANG Haoxuan1(),HUANG Feng1,2(),GUO Lidan2,3,ZHONG Ruisen4   

  1. 1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
    2. International River Research Centre, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China
    3. Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China
    4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2021-07-16 Revised:2021-09-07 Online:2022-03-15 Published:2022-03-30
  • Contact: Feng HUANG

摘要:

基于CRU(Climate Research Unit)数据集1945—2019年咸海流域月降水序列,利用气候倾向率、集中度与分摊熵、样本熵与排列熵方法,分别分析了咸海流域年降水量变化、降水的年内分配、降水序列复杂性变化的时空特征,并用Mann-Kendall法检验了各方法所得结果的趋势性。结果表明:咸海流域年降水量总体基本保持不变,呈微弱的上升趋势,其中,流域西北部及中东部区域降水量呈显著上升的趋势;咸海流域降水集中于每年的3月左右,降水的年内分配有微弱的均匀化趋势,流域西部、北部及东部降水年内分配相对更均匀,流域中部及南部降水年内分配相对更集中;咸海流域西部、北部及东部降水序列的复杂性相对较高,中部及南部降水序列的复杂性相对较低,流域整体的降水序列的复杂性呈一定的上升趋势,其中,流域北部与南部降水序列的复杂性呈显著下降的趋势,流域西部、中部与东部降水序列的复杂性呈显著上升的趋势。

关键词: 咸海流域, 降水, 年际变化, 年内分配, 复杂性

Abstract:

In this study, we extracted regional precipitation data of the general Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1945 to 2019. Simultaneously, we also calculated the spatial and temporal characteristics of annual precipitation change using the climate trend rate method. We first depicted the overall spatial distribution of the climate trend rate, then we used concentration period, concentration degree, and sharing entropy methods to describe the precipitation distribution, and separately depicted the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution. Additionally, we calculated the spatial and temporal change in precipitation complexity using the sample entropy and permutation entropy methods, and demonstrated these results graphically. Trends in the new series of concentration period, concentration degree, sharing entropy, sample entropy, and permutation entropy were tested using the Mann-Kendall method. Generally, the annual precipitation in the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia remained largely unchanged, whereas precipitation showed a slight upward trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, precipitation increased significantly in the northwest and central east of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia. Furthermore, precipitation was mainly concentrated in early and mid-February for each year. The general precipitation distribution showed a slightly homogenized trend, whereas the annual precipitation distribution was more uniform in the west, north, and east of the Aral Sea Basin, and more concentrated in the middle and south of the Aral Sea Basin. Moreover, the sample entropy and permutation entropy values were higher in the north, west, and east, but lower in the south and middle of the Aral Sea Basin. Altogether, the results demonstrate that the complexity of the precipitation series was relatively high in the north, west, and east, but relatively low in the south and middle of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia. The complexity of the precipitation series in the whole basin generally showed an upward trend. More specifically, the complexity of the precipitation series in the north and south of the basin showed a significant downward trend, whereas in the west, middle, and east of the basin, it showed a significant upward trend. Our results illustrate the variation in precipitation characteristics in this basin over the past 75 years, and provide a scientific basis for the development and utilization of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia.

Key words: the Aral Sea Basin, precipitation, inter-annual variability, intra-annual distribution, complexity