新疆区域高空气温变化特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用再分析资料（NCEP/NCAR）分析了新疆区域高空年均气温变化特征,同时运用逐步回归法对新疆高空冷月（1月）、暖月（7月）实测气温数据进行缺测插补,并通过交叉验证法对插补数据进行精度检验,在此基础上分析了新疆区域冷月、暖月高空气温变化特征,运用插补重建后的高空实测数据对1月、7月再分析资料（NCEP/NCAR）进行精度验证。结果表明：（1）新疆区域高空缺测插补后的数据精度较高效果较好,能够反映新疆高空气温变化的客观事实。（2）通过对新疆区域对流层（低、中、上）、平流层下层的冷、暖月和年平均变化趋势分析来看,随着高度的上升气温变化趋势由升温转为降温,并且随着高度的上升升温率在减小,减温率在增大;气温越高的月份,随着高度的升高,气温变化趋势发生改变的高度就越高;2000年后,对流层各层多为偏暖年,平流层下层多为偏冷年。（3） 850 hPa和700 hPa年均温转折点均发生在1996年,由冷转暖;100 hPa发生在1995—1997年,由暖转冷;500 hPa和300 hPa均未出现明显的突变年份。（4） 1月、7月再分析资料（NCEP/NCAR）与实测数据相关系数大多在0.9以上,总体误差相对较小。

关键词: 高空气温, 气候变化, 新疆区域

Abstract:

Here, we analyzed the mean annual variations in upper-air temperature features in the Xinjiang region with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. We used stepwise regression to interpolate the missing values in the measured data and verified them using a cross-validation method. We analyzed the change in upper-air temperature both in the coldest (January) and the warmest (July) months. Additionally, we verified the NCEP/NCAR data’s accuracy in both January and July with the upper-air measured data. The results indicated that the measured data can describe the upper-air temperature in Xinjiang more accurately after interpolation. We examined the average temperature trends in the troposphere (at the bottom, middle, and upper layers) and the lower stratosphere on both the coldest and warmest months and throughout the year. As the height rises, the temperature trend changes from warming to cooling temperatures. The critical height at which the temperature trend reverses is higher during the warmer months. In most years after 2000, the air temperature exhibited a warm anomaly in the troposphere a cold anomaly in the lower stratosphere. The turning point in the annual mean temperature anomaly, which turned from cold to warm, occurred in 1996 at both 850 hPa and 700 hPa levels. However, between 1995 and 1997, it happened at the 100 hPa level, showing a warm to cold trend. The temperature anomaly did not change abruptly between 500 hPa and 300 hPa. The NCEP/NCAR data and measured data in January and July had a correlation coefficient mostly above 0.9, indicating a relatively small error.

Key words: upper-air temperature, climate change, Xinjiang region

张连成,张太西,毛炜峄,司嘉怡,张同文,王胜利. 新疆区域高空气温变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(1): 133-143.

ZHANG Liancheng,ZHANG Taixi,MAO Weiyi,SI Jiayi,ZHANG Tongwen,WANG Shengli. Analysis of the upper-air temperature change in Xinjiang region[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 133-143.

图/表 9

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

表2

新疆探空站1月和7月缺测数据插补重建误差统计"

缺测年份	站点	等压面	月份	MAE	RMSE	回归模型	复相关系数
1962	库车	850 hPa	1月	0.30	0.38	0.838库尔勒+0.225喀什+0.813	0.97
1968	哈密	850 hPa		0.46	0.54	0.751库尔勒+0.239阿勒泰-0.424	0.96
1962	库车	700 hPa		0.26	0.30	0.73库尔勒+0.165喀什+0.112*伊宁市-0.007	0.99
1968	哈密	700 hPa		0.37	0.49	0.446若羌+0.644北塔山-0.097*乌鲁木齐-0.977	0.97
1962	库车	500 hPa		0.21	0.27	0.751库尔勒+0.307喀什+1.209	0.99
1968	哈密	500 hPa		0.29	0.35	0.595北塔山+0.659若羌-0.209和田+0.986	0.97
1968	乌鲁木齐	300 hPa		0.47	0.57	0.669库尔勒+0.412北塔山+3.946	0.91
1962	库车			0.31	0.41	0.773库尔勒+0.251喀什+1.029	0.92
1968	哈密			0.27	0.32	0.565北塔山+0.376若羌-3.227	0.92
1981	伊宁	100 hPa		0.21	0.25	0.438克拉玛依+0.283乌鲁木齐+0.179*北塔山-5.878	0.98
1996—1999	塔城			0.68	0.94	0.752*克拉玛依-14.645	0.76
2000	哈密			0.27	0.32	0.423北塔山+0.367若羌+0.243*喀什+2.82	0.97
1974	库车	850 hPa	7月	0.31	0.38	0.745库尔勒+0.242喀什+0.358	0.95
1968	哈密	850 hPa		0.38	0.49	0.915*库尔勒+8.735	0.91
1974	库车	700 hPa		0.19	0.25	0.569库尔勒+0.218喀什+0.244*伊宁市+0.461	0.97
1968	哈密	700 hPa		0.38	0.50	0.599北塔山+0.426库尔勒+1.4	0.90
1974	库车	500 hPa		0.16	0.20	0.292库尔勒+0.406伊宁市-0.255阿勒泰+0.367北塔山+0.124*喀什-0.443	0.97
1968	哈密	500 hPa		0.34	0.43	0.641北塔山+0.361若羌+0.155	0.92
1974	库车	300 hPa		0.38	0.47	0.647库尔勒+0.383伊宁市+1.853	0.97
1968	哈密	300 hPa		0.54	0.69	0.556北塔山+0.442若羌-0.693	0.92
1997	阿勒泰	100 hPa		0.45	0.57	0.609北塔山+0.443塔城+5.289	0.92
2001—2002	哈密			0.51	0.61	0.434阿勒泰+0.75若羌+0.179*乌鲁木齐+23.495	0.92
1981、1983	和田			0.43	0.54	0.576若羌+0.411喀什-3.277	0.89
1995、2000	喀什			0.61	0.81	1.032和田-0.613若羌+0.456*库车-6.986	0.82
1981	库车			0.36	0.49	0.909库尔勒+0.409伊宁-0.236*哈密+4.271	0.94
1990	库尔勒			0.29	0.37	0.192乌鲁木齐+0.467库车+0.366*若羌+2.339	0.97
1995	若羌			0.38	0.49	0.446哈密+0.437和田-9.496	0.92
1997—1998	塔城			0.39	0.49	0.601乌鲁木齐-0.502若羌+0.458*克拉玛依-27.517	0.93
2000	伊宁			0.37	0.50	0.675克拉玛依+0.201喀什-7.342	0.90

表2

图5

表3

表4

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	08：00	20：00
塔城	-	1961—1965
北塔山	-	1961—1980
伊宁	-	1961—1965
库尔勒	-	1961—1971
哈密	-	1961—1965
克拉玛依	1968—1971	1961—1973
阿克苏	1961—1985	-
民丰	1961—1998	-