库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.11

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the integration of water resources and socio-economic data in the Kubuqi Desert from 1999 to 2019, this paper used the system dynamic model to simulate the water resource-society-ecological system of the Kubuqi Desert. In addition, a multi-scenario parameter control model was established to comprehensively simulate the changes in the total water demand of water resources in the region under the influence of different parameters. Results show that if no other measures are taken (conventional development mode), then the total water demand in 2035 will reach 11.90 per one hundred million cubic meters, which is greater than the total water supply in the region, showing an overload state. After adjustment for different parameter schemes, the planting area and current irrigation method remain unchanged, and the water demand is 9.76 per one hundred million cubic meters. In addition, the penetration rate of drip irrigation exceeds 50% (S3), showing a loadable state, and the water demand will drop to 7.80 per one hundred million cubic meters, which alleviates the contradiction between the supply and demand of desert water resources. Therefore, during ecological restoration of the Kubuqi Desert, emphasis should be placed on the promotion of drip irrigation to save water, rational use of local water resources, and sustainable ecological development.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics, desert, arid area, Kubuqi Desert

LU Fangyuan,JIA Debin,GAO Ruizhong,SU Wenxu,ZHAO Hang,YANG Li’na. Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(4): 1102-1111.

Figures/Tables 11

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变量	单位	方程
人口	10⁴人	人口=INTEG(人口增长量,人口初始值)
人口增长量	10⁴人	人口增长量=人口×人口增长率/1000
工业产值	10⁸元	工业产值=INTEG(工业产值增长量,工业产值初始值)
工业用水量	10⁸m³	工业用水量=工业产值×单位工业产值耗水量/1000
灌溉面积	hm²	灌溉面积=INTEG(灌溉面积增长量,灌溉面积初始值)
种植业用水量	10⁸m³	种植业用水量=灌溉面积×亩均灌溉定额/1000
缺水系数	%	缺水系数=需水量/供水量×100%
水污染比	%	水污染比=污水排放量/总需水量

	可利用水量		用水量
	指标	相关性	负荷指标	比重	负荷驱动指标	相关性
	地表水资源量	0.98			人口	0.86
					农业GDP	0.91
			农业用水量	0.83	灌溉面积	0.75
					亩均灌溉用水量	0.83
					人口	0.54
指标	地下水资源量	0.86	工业用水量	0.14	工业GDP	0.52
					万元工业增加值用水量	0.51
					人口	0.86
			生活用水量	0.02	农业GDP	0.89
					人均用水定额	0.98
	其他水源供水量	0.54	生态环境用水量	0.01

地区	供水总量/10⁸ m³			需水总量/10⁸ m³			缺水系数
地区	2019年	2025年	2035年	2019年	2025年	2035年	2019年	2025年	2035年
达拉特旗	3.93	3.93	3.93	4.41	4.78	5.59	1.12	1.21	1.42
准格尔旗	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.61	1.73	2.23	1	1.08	1.39
杭锦旗	2.96	2.96	2.96	3.16	3.43	4.08	1.06	1.15	1.37
库布齐沙漠	8.39	8.39	8.39	9.18	9.94	11.90	1.09	1.18	1.41

Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert

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情景参数	情景方案	达拉特旗		杭锦旗		准格尔旗
情景参数	情景方案	2025年	2035年	2025年	2035年	2025年	2035年
城镇生活需水定额/（L·人^-1·d^-1）		135	150	135	150	135	150
农村生活需水定额/（L·人^-1·d^-1）		60	80	60	80	60	80
滴灌普及率/%	S1	18	18	18	18	18	18
	S2	25	25	25	25	25	25
	S3	25	50	25	50	25	50
	S4	50	75	50	75	50	75

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