河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes mainly the decadal, annual, seasonal, monthly and spatial changes of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor based on the recent 53-year precipitation data observed by 6 weather stations in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The mean generating function was used to develop the prediction model of precipitation after analyzing the historical evolution of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor. The results show that the annual precipitation was increased by 4.75 mm/10 a in recent 53 years, it was decreased during the period from the end-1980s to the early-1990s, but increased slowly from the late-1990s, which reveals that the climate in the central Hexi Corridor changed from the warming-drying trend to the warming-wetting trend. It was predicted that the annual precipitation will be in a slow increase trend in next 15 years.

Key words: precipitation, prediction model, spatial change, temperature, Hexi Corridor

CLC Number:

P426.6

LIU Hong-lan, BAI Hu-zhi, ZHANG Jun-guo. Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years[J]., 2011, 28(1): 146-150.

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Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years

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