宁夏土地利用碳排放时空演变及影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.03.14

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use change is a key factor affecting carbon emissions.Studying the spatiotemporal evolution of regional carbon emissions is significance for promoting reasonable emission reduction. Based on the measured data of land use carbon emissions in Ningxia at two scales of county (district) and 10 km grid from 1990 to 2020, combined with trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and GTWR model, this study discusses the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions in Ningxia. The results show that: (1) Both scales of land use carbon emissions show an upward trend in time series, and construction land is the main source of carbon emissions in Ningxia. (2) There are differences in carbon emissions among different counties (districts), with Xingqing District and Lingwu City showing the most rapid growth in carbon emissions. (3) Carbon emissions show a distribution pattern of northwest region>central region>southern region in space. Grid-scale carbon emissions have significant spatial autocorrelation, and the agglomeration pattern of carbon emissions increases with time. (4) The proportion of construction land and human activities are important factors driving the spatial and temporal differentiation of carbon emissions in Ningxia, which has a significant positive effect and the impact intensity increases year by year.

Key words: carbon emissions, spatiotemporal pattern, land use, GTWR, influence factor, Ningxia

WANG Wei, YANG Shuting, HAI Yunrui. The spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use in Ningxia[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(3): 545-555.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Classification criteria for change trend types"

	增长类型
Slope	缓慢增长型	较慢增长型	中速增长型	较快增长型	迅猛增长型
Slope	$C - - 0.5 s$	$C - - 0.5 s ~ C - + 0.5 s$	$C - + 0.5 s ~ C - + 1.5 s$	$C - + 1.5 s ~ C - + 2.5 s$	$C - + 2.5 s$

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 5

Fig. 8

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影响因素	数据来源
地形位指数（TPI）	基于DEM数据进行计算^[24]
年平均气温（MAT）/℃	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
年降水量（MAP）/mm	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
植被覆盖度（FVC）/%	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
年度净初级生产力（NPP）/kg·（m²·a）^-1	MOD17A3HGF数据（https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/）
林地占比（FLP）/%	林地面积与地类总面积的比值
人为影响综合指数（HAI）	参考文献[25]
单位面积人口数量（POP）/10⁴人·km^-2	WorldPOP数据集（https://hub.worldpop.org/）
建设用地占比（CLP）/%	建设用地面积与地类总面积的比值
国内生产总值（GDP）/10⁴元	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
人均固定资产投资额（FAI）/10⁴元·人^-1	《宁夏统计年鉴》
人均社会消费零售额（TRSCG）/10⁴元·人^-1	《宁夏统计年鉴》
人均地方财政支出（LGE）/10⁴元·人^-1	《宁夏统计年鉴》
二、三产占比（PST）/%	《宁夏统计年鉴》

指标	年份	土地利用类型
指标	年份	耕地	林地	草地	水域	未利用地	建设用地
面积/km²	1990年	13280.67	581.31	33446.6	275.97	4106	254.63
	2000年	15200.53	652.69	32582.32	239	2884.87	385.78
	2010年	13498.78	690.56	34891.16	344.82	1709.99	809.87
	2020年	13589.7	873.58	34264.36	367.47	1759.04	1091.03
面积变化率/%	1990—2000年	14.46	12.28	-2.58	-13.40	-29.74	51.51
	2000—2010年	-11.20	5.80	7.09	44.28	-40.73	109.93
	2010—2020年	0.67	26.50	-1.80	6.57	2.87	34.72
	1990—2020年	2.33	50.28	2.44	33.16	-57.16	328.48

尺度	统计量	1990年	2000年	2010年	2020年
10 km格网尺度	Moran’s I	0.42	0.50	0.51	0.56
	Z得分	14.93	17.43	18.64	19.31
	P值	0	0	0	0

模型	r²	r²增加值	AICc
OLS	0.709	0.709	17514.73
GWR	0.812	0.812	16519.90
GTWR	0.827	0.827	16366.80

The spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use in Ningxia

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