塔里木盆地农业光热资源特征及开发潜力分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.17

Abstract

Abstract:

Agricultural solar thermal resources are the core advantage in the national strategy of the Tarim Basin’s western development. However, there has been no comprehensive quantitative assessment of the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin. Based on the analysis of the inter-annual trend and spatial pattern characteristics of agricultural solar thermal resources in 42 counties in the Tarim Basin, this study established a comprehensive evaluation index system and used the entropy-weight TOPSIS method and Mann-Kendall trend test to evaluate the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin. The results revealed that (1) between 1990 and 2020, the agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, including annual sunshine hours, annual solar radiation, annual active heat accumulation above 10 ℃, and annual mean temperature, exhibited an upward trend, while the number of days with at least three hours of effective sunshine and annual evaporation displayed a downward trend. (2) a significant spatial imbalance was observed in the agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, and different indicators displayed different spatial differentiation patterns, forming obvious spatial features of high and low agricultural solar thermal resources aggregation distribution. (3) a significant spatial difference was observed in the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin, with an average score of 0.199. The highest score of 0.578 was observed in Zhalay County, which was more than six times higher than in Keping County, with 0.094. These results reveal a “multicore” distribution pattern. The findings can provide a realistic reference for the development and utilization of agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin and help improve the local resource utilization efficiency.

Key words: Tarim Basin, agricultural solar-thermal resources, spatiotemporal pattern, developing potential, entropy-weight TOPSIS method

WEN Di, LYU Aifeng, LI Taohui, ZHANG Wenxiang. Characteristics and development potential analysis of agricultural solar-thermal resources in the Tarim Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 384-396.

Figures/Tables 6

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准则层	指标层	指标定义	单位	数据来源	指标
光热资源禀赋	年日照时数	一年内日照时间的累计值	h	新疆第三次科学考察	A1
	年太阳辐射总量	一年内太阳辐射的累计值	MJ·m^-2		A2
	≥3 h有效日照天数	一年内日照时长≥3 h的天数	d		A3
	≥10 ℃活动积温	一年中日平均温稳定维持在≥10 ℃的日平均温度的总和	℃		A4
	年平均气温	全年各日平均气温的算术平均值	℃		A5
	年蒸发量	一年内区域表面的潜在（水面）蒸发量	mm		A6
农业资源现状	水资源量	区域内地表和地下水资源总量	10⁸m³	新疆统计年鉴	A7
	农业水资源利用量	农业生产活动中利用的水资源量	10⁸m³		A8
	有效灌溉面积	能够得到有效灌溉的农田面积	10³hm²		A9
	农用地面积比重	区域内农用地占总面积的比重	%		A10
	农业基础设施投入	区域内农业基础设施的投入成本	10⁴元		A11
农业生态环境	土壤侵蚀模数	单位面积土地受到侵蚀的程度		遥感气候数据集	A12
	人均GDP	区域内人均生产总值	元	新疆统计年鉴	A13
	农业总产值	区域内农业生产总值	10⁴元		A14
	旱涝发生频率	区域内旱涝事件的发生比例	%		A15/A16
	退化耕地比重	耕地退化面积占耕地面积的比重	%		A17

Characteristics and development potential analysis of agricultural solar-thermal resources in the Tarim Basin

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