中国耕地非农化与非粮化时空分异及其治理策略

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Drawing upon China’s comprehensive land use data and socioeconomic panel statistics spanning 1980-2020, this study meticulously analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland. It aimed to elucidate their underlying patterns of change and driving mechanisms, establishing a solid foundation for sustainable cultivated land utilization and stable food security. Utilizing the SD ellipse and trend analysis, we comprehensively assessed the dynamic evolution traits of these nontraditional agricultural uses. Furthermore, we constructed a comprehensive index system tailored for nonagricultural and nongrain farmlands and developed a partial correlation model to quantitatively assess the relative contributions of various influencing factors. This comprehensive approach offers a nuanced understanding of the intricate dynamics governing these farmland transitions and their implications for China’s agricultural sustainability and food security. (1) Regarding time, the current situation of nonagriculture farmland in China is getting better, but the nonagriculture phenomenon is still prominent in some areas and tends to intensify further. (2) Regarding space, the degree of nonagriculture is more serious in the northeast, central, and eastern regions, while it is higher in the northwest, south, and some coastal areas of southeast China. The polarization phenomenon exists in the direction of nonagricultural chemical evolution. The nongrain center exhibited a development trend of moving from the southwest to the northeast. (3) Economic factors are the leading driving effect of nonagricultural chemistry, and their degree of influence has decreased in the past ten years. Agricultural production condition is the basic factor of nongrain production, and it is gradually increased by economic factors, such as the output value of grain per acre and the income gap between urban and rural areas. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of nonagricultural and nongrain lands in China from 1980 to 2020 can provide a reference for the scientific implementation of cultivated land protection decisions.

Key words: farmland, nonagricultural, nongrain, spatial-temporal differentiation, driving factors

ZHANG Lei, ZHOU Yuming, DONG Jiemou, LI Xiang, LIU Shidong, XU Liping. Spatiotemporal differentiation of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland in China and its management strategies[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 372-383.

Figures/Tables 6

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一级指标	序号	二级指标	单位	数据来源
经济因素	A1	粮食平均产值	元·hm^-2	中国农村统计年鉴，全国农产品成本收益资料汇编
	A2	粮食生产价格指数	%	中国农村统计年鉴
	A3	城镇化率	%	中国统计年鉴
	A4	恩格尔系数	%	原始数据来源于各省统计年鉴，食品支出/总支出
	A5	城乡收入差距		中国统计年鉴
农业生产条件	B1	农业机械总动力	10⁴ kW	中国统计年鉴
	B2	有效灌溉面积	hm²	中国统计年鉴
	B3	作物受灾、成灾比例	%	中国统计年鉴
	B4	农业全要素生产率	-	数据来源于《中国统计年鉴》及各省份统计年鉴，基于随机前沿生产函数法
	B5	地形起伏度	-	^[29]
	B6	道路密度	km·(100km²)^-1	国家统计局
政策制度	C1	土地流转率	%	《全国农村经济情况统计资料》、《中国农村经营管理统计年报》、《2019年中国农村政策与改革统计年报》
	C2	粮食作物补贴收入	元·hm^-2	全国农产品成本收益资料汇编
	C3	土地财政	%	《中国国土资源年鉴》、各省份财政决算报告

Spatiotemporal differentiation of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland in China and its management strategies

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