近20 a塔里木河流域山区NDSI对气候变化的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.03

Abstract

Abstract:

NDSI is used to evaluate the degree of surface snow cover, which plays a vital role in exploring snow cover changes in mountainous areas. In this study, remote sensing data and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2022, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and attribution of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin over the past 20 years. Results indicated a downward trend of NDSI in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2022, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The seasonal variation of NDSI was similar in the northern and western mountainous areas, with the average NDSI ranking from high to low in winter>spring>autumn>summer. However, the average NDSI in the southern mountainous areas was higher in summer than in autumn. The average annual actual evapotranspiration in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin showed an increasing trend. Precipitation in the northern mountainous areas exhibited a slight downward trend, whereas that in the western and southern mountainous areas showed an upward trend. The difference in saturated water vapor pressure showed an upward trend in all mountainous areas. The downward surface solar radiation exhibited a decreasing trend. The minimum temperature in the northern and western mountainous areas showed an increasing trend, whereas that in the southern mountainous areas showed a slightly decreasing trend. The maximum temperature in all regions exhibited an upward trend. Among these variables, temperature and saturated water vapor pressure exerted a significant impact on NDSI. This study can provide a scientific basis for policy decision-making.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, snow cover, climate change, NDSI, multiple linear regression

ZHANG Yin, SUN Congjian, LIU Geng, CHAO Jinlong, GENG Tianwei. Response of NDSI in the Tarim River Basin mountainous areas to climate change over the past 20 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1639-1648.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 32

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		β₁(AET)	β₂(PRE)	β₃(VPD)	β₄(SRAD)	β₅(TMMN)	β₆(TMMX)
北部	年均值	-0.13^*	0.48^*	0.89^*	-0.18^*	-0.60^*	-0.53^*
	春季	-0.16^*	-0.15^*	-0.16^*	0.40^*	0.26^*	-0.53^*
	夏季	-0.19^*	0.54^*	-0.37^*	-0.86^*	-1.94^*	3.48^*
	秋季	-0.24^*	-0.11^*	-1.09^*	-0.37^*	-0.64^*	1.95^*
	冬季	0.16^*	-0.34^*	-0.65^*	-0.14^*	-0.01	0.33^*
西部	年均值	-0.10^*	0.12^*	0.81^*	-0.88^*	-1.89^*	1.08^*
	春季	0.20^*	0.32^*	0.48^*	0.44^*	-1.22^*	0.45^*
	夏季	0.14^*	-0.02	0.84^*	-0.37^*	-1.73^*	1.17^*
	秋季	0.24^*	0.20^*	0.73^*	0.47^*	-0.82^*	-0.29
	冬季	0.00	0.18^*	0.51^*	-0.38^*	-2.63^*	2.39^*
南部	年均值	-0.32^*	0.21^*	0.84^*	-0.92^*	-2.32^*	1.68^*
	春季	0.32^*	-0.06^*	0.67^*	0.01	2.89^*	-3.85^*
	夏季	-0.14^*	-0.02	0.54^*	-0.32^*	1.13^*	-1.60^*
	秋季	0.12^*	-0.13^*	0.98^*	0.05^*	1.93^*	-3.15^*
	冬季	0.09^*	-0.01	-0.19^*	-0.03	0.11	0.01

Response of NDSI in the Tarim River Basin mountainous areas to climate change over the past 20 years

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