独库高速阿尔先沟段雪崩空间分布及因子探测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.02.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The proposed Aerxiangou section of the Duku expressway, characterized by high mountainous terrain and canyons, faces frequent avalanches due to heavy snowfall and climate change. In this study, a collaborative investigation using UAV remote sensing interpretation and field research identified 92 avalanche points. In addition, elevation, slope, surface cutting degree, ground roughness, maximum snow depth, maximum wind speed, average temperature, and average snowfall were selected as driving factors. A geographical detector was used to examine the relationship between terrain factors, different resolutions, and avalanche stability. The results of this study revealed strong avalanche activity with generally poor stability in the study area. However, it was reassuring to note that most avalanche release and activity areas are located on mountain slopes. The accumulation area lies on the valley floor, a considerable distance away from the planned road route, thus minimizing its impact. Results from the geographical detector analysis suggest positive correlations between interpretations of slope and ground roughness with snow avalanche stability across varying resolutions. The interactive detection results are both double-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement, with the latter being more significant than the former. The combination of slope and other factors is crucial for determining the impact of avalanche stability. This study offers reliable data support for assessing avalanche vulnerability and risks, thereby establishing a solid scientific basis for constructing and operating the Duku expressway.

Key words: Aerxiangou, avalanche, geographical detector, driving factors, spatial distribution

CHENG Qiulian, LIU Jie, YANG Zhiwei, ZHANG Tianyi, WANG Bin. Spatial distribution and factor analysis of avalanche in the Aerxiangou section of the Duku expressway[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(2): 220-229.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Interaction probing basis"

判断依据	交互图示	交互性
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 < m i n q X 1, q X 2$		非线性减弱
$m i n q X 1, q X 2 < q X 1 ⋂ X 2 < m a x q X 1, q X 2$		单因子非线性减弱
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 > m a x q X 1, q X 2$		双因子增强
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 = q X 1 + q X 2$		相互独立
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 > q X 1 + q X 2$		非线性增强

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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稳定性分级	雪崩数量/个	所占比例/%
稳定	6	6.5
相对稳定	18	19.6
稳定性较差	45	48.9
不稳定	18	19.6
极其不稳定	5	5.4

对拟建线路的影响	雪崩数量/个	所占比例/%
无影响	59	64.2
影响一般	12	13
影响较重	12	13
影响严重	9	9.8

地形因子			气象积雪因子
影响因子	分级区间	级别	影响因子	分级区间	级别
高程/m	<2400	Ⅰ	平均温度/℃	<-8.3	Ⅰ
	2400~2700	Ⅱ		-8.3~-7.8	Ⅱ
	2700~3000	Ⅲ		-7.8~-7.4	Ⅲ
	3000~3300	Ⅳ		-7.4~-6.9	Ⅳ
	>3300	Ⅴ		-6.9~-6.6	Ⅴ
坡度/m	0~15	Ⅰ	平均降雪量/cm	<18	Ⅰ
	15~30	Ⅱ		18~19	Ⅱ
	30~45	Ⅲ		19~20	Ⅲ
	45~60	Ⅳ		20~21	Ⅳ
	>60	Ⅴ		>21	Ⅴ
地表切割度/m	0~30	Ⅰ	最大积雪深度/cm	<55	Ⅰ
	30~60	Ⅱ		55~57.5	Ⅱ
	60~90	Ⅲ		57.5~60	Ⅲ
	90~120	Ⅳ		60~62.5	Ⅳ
	>120	Ⅴ		62.5~65	Ⅴ
地面粗糙度	0~0.2	Ⅰ	最大风速/(m·s^-1)	<15.6	Ⅰ
	0.2~0.4	Ⅱ		15.6~15.7	Ⅱ
	0.4~0.6	Ⅲ		15.7~15.9	Ⅲ
	0.6~0.8	Ⅳ		15.9~16.1	Ⅳ
	>0.8	Ⅴ		>16.1	Ⅴ

Spatial distribution and factor analysis of avalanche in the Aerxiangou section of the Duku expressway

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