祁连山南坡植被绿度时空变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.12.15

Abstract

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation greenness on the southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains and their responses to climate change and human activities. Utilizing the Google Earth Engine platform, we applied algorithms and remote sensing technologies to analyze these changes. By employing Sen’s trend analysis, the coefficient of variation, the Hurst index, ArcGIS spatial analysis, and multiple residual regression methods, we integrated multisource data products to comprehensively analyze the characteristics of vegetation greenness changes. Additionally, we assessed future trends and stability while thoroughly examining the influences of climate change and human activities. The results indicated the following: (1) From 2001 to 2020, vegetation greenness on the southern slope of the Qilian Mountains exhibited an overall upward trend, accompanied by significant spatial variations. Stability analysis revealed that the coefficient of variation ranged from 0 to 0.84, with a mean of 0.09, indicating that changes in vegetation greenness remained relatively stable and exhibited a positive trend. (2) Regarding influencing factors, both precipitation and temperature exhibited a positive correlation with vegetation greenness, with temperature showing a more pronounced effect. Notably, 95.7% of the study area passed the significance test, highlighting that temperature primarily drives changes in vegetation greenness. (3) Human activities have positively influenced changes in vegetation greenness. Overall, these changes result from the combined effects of climate change and human activities, with relative contribution rates of 36.68% for climate change and 63.32% for human activities. The higher contribution rate of human activities is closely linked to the implementation of ecological engineering initiatives.

Key words: vegetation greenness, spatiotemporal change, climate change, human activities, southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains

ZHANG Qian, CAO Guangchao, ZHANG Lele, ZHAO Meiliang. Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation greenness on the southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains and their responses to climate change and human activities[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 2143-2153.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Criteria for determining driving factors of vegetation greenness change and calculation method for relative contribution rate"

$s l o p e （ N D V I o b s ）$	驱动因素	驱动因素判定标准		驱动因素的贡献率/%
$s l o p e （ N D V I o b s ）$	驱动因素	$s l o p e （ N D V I C C ）$	$s l o p e （ N D V I H A ）$	气候变化	人类活动
>0	CC&HA	>0	>0	$s l o p e (N D V I C C) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$	$s l o p e (N D V I H A) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$
>0	CC	>0	<0	100	0
>0	HA	<0	>0	0	100
<0	CC&HA	<0	<0	$s l o p e (N D V I C C) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$	$s l o p e (N D V I H A) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$
<0	CC	<0	>0	100	0
<0	HA	>0	<0	0	100

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 2

Fig. 5

Tab. 3

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Tab. 4

Fig. 10

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变化趋势值Slope	显著性水平	变化趋势	像元数/个	比例/%
<-0.0005	<0.01	极显著退化	120	1
<-0.0005	0.01~0.05	显著退化	166	1
<-0.0005	≥0.05	轻微退化	2280	9
-0.0005~0.0005	≥0.05	基本不变	6660	28
>0.0005	≥0.05	轻微改善	9326	39
>0.0005	0.01~0.05	显著改善	2599	11
>0.0005	<0.01	极显著改善	2642	11

变异系数			未来变化趋势
稳定性	像元数/个	比例/%	变化趋势	像元数/个	比例/%
低波动	4739	20	持续退化	587	3
相对低波动	16873	70	反持续改善	1979	8
中波动	2179	9	基本不变	6660	28
相对高波动	198	0.9	反持续退化	11615	49
高波动	19	0.1	持续改善	2950	12

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation greenness on the southern slopes of the Qilian Mountains and their responses to climate change and human activities

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References 37

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Slope（NDVI_obs）	驱动因素	像元数/个	比例/%
>0	气候变化和人类活动	14942	64
>0	气候变化	2501	11
>0	人类活动	952	4
<0	气候变化和人类活动	1218	5
<0	气候变化	190	1
<0	人类活动	3498	15

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