基于地理探测器的鄂尔多斯干旱时空变化驱动因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.12.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought is a significant natural disaster in Ordos, exacerbating desertification and degrading grassland vegetation. Therefore, studying drought in this region is crucial for effective drought prevention, desertification control, and ecological restoration. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal dynamics and trends of drought and analyzed the driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of DSI using a geographic detector model. The results show that evapotranspiration (ET) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Ordos exhibit a significant increasing trend (P<0.05), with rates of 4.291 mm·a^-1 for ET and 0.004 a^-1 for NDVI. Additionally, the interannual variation of DSI also showed a significant increase, with a trend change rate of 0.089. ET and NDVI showed a spatial pattern, with lower values in the southwest and higher values in the northeast. Conversely, PET showed a spatial pattern of higher values in the southwest and lower values in the northeast. The DSI showed a dry spatial pattern in the west and a wet pattern in the east. The spatial differentiation of the DSI was primarily affected by five factors, such as air temperature, precipitation, land use type, soil type, and the digital elevation model (DEM), with q value exceeding 0.15, indicating these are the main driving factors of drought in the Ordos. Multiple factors interact to drive drought in Ordos, with four key combinations—temperature and DEM, precipitation and DEM, sunshine duration and DEM, and relative humidity and DEM. Among these, the combination of precipitation (0.156) and DEM (0.248) exerted the strongest influence on drought occurrence, with a q value of 0.389. This study can provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and drought management measures in the region.

Key words: Ordos, DSI drought index, geographical detector, spatial temporal change, driving factor

WANG Sinan, WU Yingjie, WANG Hongzhou, LI Mingyang, WANG Fei, ZHANG Wenying, MA Xiaoming, YU Xiangqian. Spatial and temporal drivers of drought analysis using the geodetector in Ordos[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 1981-1991.

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交互作用	判定依据
非线性减弱	q(X₁∩X₂)<min[q(X₁), q(X₂)]
单因子非线性减弱	min[q(X₁), q(X₂)]<q(X₁∩X₂)<max[q(X₁), q(X₂)]
双因子增强	q(X₁∩X₂)>max[q(X₁), q(X₂)]
独立	q(X₁∩X₂)=q(X₁)+q(X₂)
非线性增强	q(X₁∩X₂)>q(X₁)+q(X₂)

Spatial and temporal drivers of drought analysis using the geodetector in Ordos

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