SRES A1B情景下东北地区未来干旱趋势预估

Abstract

Abstract: The values of relative humidity index were calculated using the data of mean daily temperature and precipitation from regional climate model system PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) under SRES A1B scenario so as to analyze the drought trend in northeast China in crop growing season (from May to September).The results showed that,under A1B scenario,an obvious drought trend would increase in northeast China in crop growing season during the period of 2011-2100,compared with baseline (1971-2000),the central and southern regions in Jilin Province and whole Liaoning Province would become moist,and the other places would be arid.Drought area in northeast China would significantly enlarge in crop growing season in the future,and the 30-year averaged values of drought area during the periods of 2011-2040,2041-2070,2071-2100 would be changed by -1.3%,17.4% and 38.4% respectively compared with the baseline.The high drought occurring frequency might occur in the Qiqihar and Daqing regions in Heilongjiang Province,Baicheng in Jilin and Chaoyang in Liaoning,while the low drought occurring frequency in the Dandong region in Liaoning and the eastern region in Jilin.Compared with the baseline,it is estimated that the drought frequency in the future would decrease by 2% in the Liaodong Bay area,but increase by 8%-10% in southwest Heilongjiang and west Jilin and 2%-6% in other regions.

Key words: SRES A1B scenario, climate model, crop growing season, relative humidity index, drought trend, northeast China

MA Jian-yong, PAN Jie, XU Yin-long, JIANG Jiang. Drought Trend in Northeast China in the Future under SRES A1B Scenario[J].Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(2): 329-335.

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Drought Trend in Northeast China in the Future under SRES A1B Scenario

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