秦岭地区气温变化统计降尺度研究

Abstract

Abstract: A statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was applied to develop the quantitative statistical relationships between the predictands and the predictors based on the mean daily, maximum and minimum temperature data observed by 7 meteorological stations in the Qinling Mountains during the period of 1961-2011. The gradual linear regression method was used in the study, the optimal predictors in NCEP atmospheric circulation were selected, the applicability of air temperature change in the Qinling Mountains in the future was analyzed, and the change trends of air temperature in three periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 were predicted. The results showed that the air temperature results simulated with SDSM for the situation in the Qinling Mountains were significantly good. The increase of air temperature in the study area in the future would be remarkable, its difference, however, would be quite different from different time scales. The temporal change of three predictands was similar at monthly and seasonal scales. At monthly scale, the temperature increase would be the highest in August but the lowest in December. At seasonal scale, the temperature increase would be in an order of winter < spring < autumn < summer. Spatially, the increase of temperature in 2011-2040 would be higher in the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains than that in the southern slope.

Key words: air temperature, change trend, downscaling, SDSM, future scenario, Qinling Mountains

ZHANG Jie, BAI Hong-ying, YUAN Bo, MA Xin-ping. Statistical Downscaling of Air Temperature Change in the Qinling Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(2): 322-328.

References

[1] Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.Climate Change 2007:The physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge UK:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2] 范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮.统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展,2005,20(3):320-329.
[Fan Lijun,Fu Congbin,Chen Deliang.Review on creating future climate change scenarios by statistical downscaling techniques[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2005,20(3):320-329.]
[3] 范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法.全球平均气温未来情景的降尺度分析[J]. 地理科学进展,2012,31(3):267-274.
[Fan Zemeng,Yue Tianxiang,Chen Chuanfa.Downscaling of global mean annual temperature under different scenairos[J]. Progress in Geography,,2012,31(3):267-274.]
[4] 刘昌明,刘文彬,傅国斌,等.气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨[J]. 水科学进展,2012,23(3):427-437.
[Liu Changming,Liu Wenbin,Fu Guobin,et al.A discussion of some aspects of statistical downscaling in climate impacts assessment[J]. Advances in Water Science,2012,23(3):427-437.]
[5] Wetterhall F,Halldin S,Xu C.Statistical precipitation downscaling in central Sweden with the analogue method[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2005,306(1/4):174-190.
[6] Tripathi S,Srinivas V V,Nanjundiah R S.Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios:A support vector machine approach[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,330(3/4):621-640.
[7] 郭靖,郭生练,陈华,等.ANN统计降尺度法对汉江流域降水变化预测[J]. 武汉大学学报:工学版,2010,43(2):148-152.
[Guo Jing,Guo Shenglian,Chen Hua,et al.Prediction of changes of precipitation in Hanjiang River basin using statistical downscaling method based on ANN[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2010,43(2):148-152.]
[8] 钞振华.中国西部地区气温资料的统计降尺度研究[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(5):879-884.
[chao zhenhua.Study on statistical downscaling of air temperature in west China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(5):879-884.]
[9] 程志刚,刘晓东,范广洲,等.21世纪青藏高原气候时空变化评估[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(4):669-679.
[Cheng Zhigang,Liu Xiaodong,Fan Guangzhou,et al.Spatiotemporal Distribution of Climate Change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 21st Century[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(4):669-679.]
[10] Wilby R L,Wigley T M L,Conway D,et al.Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output:A comparison of methods[J]. Water Resources Research,1998,34(11):2 995-3 008.
[11] Khan M S,Coulibaly P,Dibike Y.Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,319:357-382.
[12] 赵芳芳,徐宗学.黄河源区未来地面气温变化的统计降尺度分析[J]. 高原气象,2008,27(1):153-161.
[Zhao Fangfang,Xu Zongxue.Statistical downscaling of future temperature change in source of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(1):153-161.]
[13] 刘绿柳,刘兆飞,徐宗学.21世纪黄河流域上中游地区气候变化趋势分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3):167-172.
[Liu Lvliu,Liu Zhaofei,Xu Zongxue.Trends of climate change for the upper-middle reaches of the Yellow River in the 21st century[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(3):167-172.]
[14] 张凯,唐亚平,李岚,等.天气发生器与SDSM两种统计降尺度技术对长江中下游地区最高温度模拟的比较研究[J]. 安徽农业科学,2011,39(3):1 545-1 549,1 593.
[Zhang Kai,Tang Yaping,Li Lan,et al.A comparative study of weather generator and SDSM methods simulation on regional highest temperature of middle and lower reaches of Chang Jiang River[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011,39(3):1 545-1 549,1 593.]
[15] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate Change 2007:Impact,Adaptation and Vulnera-bility[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[16] 宋佃星,延军平,马莉.近50 a来秦岭南北气候分异研究[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(3):492-498.
[Song Dianxing,Yan Junping,Ma Li.Study on climatic differentiation in the south and north Qinling Mountains in recent 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(3):492-498.]
[17] 李双双,延军平,万佳.全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征地理科学[J]. 地理科学,2012,32(7):853-858.
[Li Shuangshuang,Yan Junping,Wan Jia.The characteristics of temperature change in Qinling Mountains[J]. Geographical Science,2012,32(7):853-858.]
[18] Wilby R L,Dawson C W,Barrow E M.SDSM-A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts[J]. Enviromental Modeling Software,2002,17:147-159.
[19] 许吟隆,Richard J.利用ECMWF再分析数据验证PRECIS对中国区域气候的模拟能力[J]. 中国农业气象,2004,25(1):5-9.
[Xu Yinlong,Richard J.Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China[J]. Agricultural Meteorology,2004,25(1):5-9.]
[20] 邱冰,姜加虎,孙占东,等.基于统计降尺度模型的博斯腾湖流域未来气温和降水变化趋势分析[J]. 资源科学,2010,32(6):1 133-1 140.
[Qiu Bing,Jiang Jiahu,Sun Zhandong,et al.Analysis of trends in future temperature and precipitation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on a statistical downscaling model[J]. Resources Science,2010,32(6):1 133-1 140.]
[21] 高翔,白红英,张善红,等.1959-2009年秦岭山地气候变化趋势研究[J]. 水土保持通报,2012,32(1):207-211.
[Gao Xiang,Bai Hongying,Zhang Shanhong,et al.Climatic change tendency in Qinling Mountains from 1959 to 2009[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(1):207-211.]

Statistical Downscaling of Air Temperature Change in the Qinling Mountains

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	DU Jun, Tsewang , HUANG Zhicheng, Dechendolkar . Spatio-temporal change in mean wind speed and its resources in Xizang from 1981 to 2024 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(9): 1549-1562.
[2]	ZHANG Jiaqi, LIU Zhao, HAN Zhongqing, WANG Lixia, ZHANG Jinxia, YUE Jiayin, GUAN Zilong. Trend change and prediction of blue-green water in the Jinghe River Basin under climate change [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 2045-2055.
[3]	YANG Fei, ZHANG Wentao, ZHANG Feimin, WANG Chenghai. Climate characteristics and variation in the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2022 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1627-1638.
[4]	XUE Zhixuan, ZHANG Li, WANG Xinjun, LI Yongkang, ZHANG Guanhong, LI Peiyao. Downscaling analysis of SMAP soil moisture products in Gurbantunggut Desert [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 583-593.
[5]	LI Yankun,GAO Liming,ZHANG Lele,WU Xueqing,LIU Xuanchen,QI Wen. Comparison of downscaling methods for TRMM 3B43 precipitation data in the Qinghai Lake Basin and its surrounding areas [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1706-1716.
[6]	ZHANG Yunxin,HAO Haichao,FAN Lianlian,LI Yaoming,ZHANG Renping,LI Kaihui. Study on spatio-temporal dynamics and driving factors of NPP in Central Asian grassland [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 698-707.
[7]	XIAO Weiwei,AN Bin,SHI Jiaqi. Temporal and spatial characteristics of 0 cm surface temperature in Shaanxi Province during 1958 to 2017 under climate change [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1244-1253.
[8]	ZHANG Liancheng,ZHANG Taixi,MAO Weiyi,SI Jiayi,ZHANG Tongwen,WANG Shengli. Analysis of the upper-air temperature change in Xinjiang region [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 133-143.
[9]	SHEN Lu-ting, ZHANG Fang-min, HUANG Jin, LI Yun-peng. Climate characteristics of day and night precipitation during the growing season in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2018 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(6): 1519-1527.
[10]	YIN Tian-yuan, YIN Shu-yan, LI Fu-min. Relationship between the Summer Extreme Precipitation in the South and North of the Qinling Mountains and the Western Pacific Subtropical High [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(6): 1379-1390.
[11]	QI Gui-zeng, BAI Hong-ying, MENG Qing, ZHAO Ting, GUO Shao-zhuang. Climate Change in the Qinling Mountains in Spring during 1959-2018 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(5): 1079-1091.
[12]	MAO Dong-lei, CAI Fu-yan, YANG Xue-feng, WANG Xue-mei, LAI Feng-bing, XUE Jie. Characteristics of Wind Filed over Different Underlying Surfaces in the Oasis-Desert Ecotone in Qira,Xinjiang [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(5): 1117-1126.
[13]	Gulimire Hanati, Haimidan Helili, LIU Qian-qian, SU Litan. Dynamic Snowmelt Process and Its Relationship with Air Temperature in a Small Watershed in the West Tianshan Mountains [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(4): 801-808.
[14]	CHUN Lan, QIN Fu-ying, BAO Lu, NA Yin-tai, BAO Yu-hai, BAO Shan-hu. Spatiotemporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Inner Mongolia in Recent 55 Years [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(4): 963-972.
[15]	LI Xiao-fei, XU Chang-chun, LI Lu, SONG Jia, ZHANG Xi-cheng. Projection of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin in the 21st Century [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(3): 556-566.