不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.02

Abstract

Abstract:

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a unique climate, complex topography, and few meteorological observation stations, which makes it difficult to observe and simulate its regional climate and water cycle processes. Using the regional climate models RegCM and WRF, the spatial and temporal distribution of the climate in this region from 1989 to 2008 was systematically analyzed, and the simulation capability of the RegCM and WRF models was investigated at 10, 25, and 50 km horizontal resolutions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that the trend of annual average temperature simulated by both models at 10 km horizontal resolution is 1.60-2.12 ℃ lower than the multiyear average temperature simulation at 25 and 50 km horizontal resolution. With increasing horizontal resolution, the simulation biases of annual and seasonal temperatures simulated by the WRF model decrease, and the cold bias of temperature in the central and western parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau improves. The simulated temperature in the RegCM model at a 10 km horizontal resolution has the lowest error, and it is significantly better for simulating the spatial distribution of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The correlation between the simulated temperature of both models in different seasons and the observation data has been improved. In the precipitation simulation, the WRF model at a horizontal resolution of 25 km has the best correlation with the observed data but has the largest error. With the increase of horizontal resolution, the overestimation of precipitation in the southeastern and southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by the WRF model has been significantly improved, and the annual precipitation simulated by the RegCM model gradually approaches the measured values (the overestimation decreases from about 2.73 times to 1.77 times). However, the overall overestimation of precipitation by both models still exists. In the simulation of the five major river sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with increasing horizontal spatial resolution, the WRF model reduces the biases of the air temperature in the source region of the Mekong river and Salween River, whereas the RegCM model reduces the biases of the air temperature in the source region of the Brahmaputra River and Mekong river. The largest reduction in precipitation bias was achieved in the Brahmaputra River source region at 10 km horizontal resolution by the WRF and RegCM models. This study can lay the foundation for understanding the impact of climate change on the water cycle process in the Qighai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: regional climate models, different horizontal resolutions, WRF, RegCM, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

WANG Xueying, GU Huanghe, DAI Bin, ZHANG Hanwen, YU Zhongbo. Simulation of climate characteristics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by regional climate models at different horizontal resolutions[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 363-374.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 33

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	RegCM	WRF
水平分辨率	10 km、25 km、50 km	10 km、25 km、50 km
经纬度范围	70 °~106 °E， 23 °~42 °N； 49 °~180 °E， 0 °~61 °N； 33 °E~180 °E， 24 °S~67 °N	74 °~106 °E， 22 °~42 °N； 50 °~180 °E， 0 °~49 °N； 40 °E~180 °E， 24 °S~65 °N
格点数	297×189、394×249、 243×197	277×216、395×250、 233×197
对流参数化方案	MIT-Emanuel	Kain-Fritch Ⅱ
陆面参数化方案	CLM 3.5	NOAH LSM
行星边界层	Hotslag	YSU
谱逼近方法	选用	选用

		年均	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
RegCM模式10 km	MAE/℃	0.33	2.17	0.69	0.80	0.82
	RMSE/℃	0.44	2.27	0.79	1.00	1.04
	R	0.55	0.47	0.65	0.47	0.55
WRF模式10 km	MAE/℃	1.77	3.38	0.27	2.20	1.41
	RMSE/℃	1.78	3.40	0.34	2.24	1.47
	R	0.91	0.87	0.71	0.73	0.93
RegCM模式25 km	MAE/℃	2.45	4.20	2.80	1.67	1.14
	RMSE/℃	2.48	4.24	2.86	1.83	1.29
	R	0.75	0.67	0.50	0.19	0.81
WRF模式25 km	MAE/℃	3.37	5.65	1.54	2.40	3.92
	RMSE/℃	3.38	5.65	1.55	2.43	3.95
	R	0.93	0.96	0.92	0.84	0.91
RegCM模式50 km	MAE/℃	2.13	0.96	2.06	3.44	2.42
	RMSE/℃	2.15	1.00	2.07	3.47	2.82
	R	0.93	0.89	0.87	0.15	0.70
WRF模式50 km	MAE/℃	3.77	6.20	2.39	2.91	3.74
	RMSE/℃	3.79	6.24	2.41	2.95	3.86
	R	0.72	0.73	0.79	0.01	0.63

		年均	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
RegCM模式10 km	BIAS/%	75	102	22	126	532
	MAE/mm	290.7	70.6	49.3	98.3	73.3
	RMSE/mm	293.1	72.2	55.3	99.0	74.5
	R	0.69	0.28	0.60	0.48	0.62
WRF模式10 km	BIAS/%	50	101	15	55	342
	MAE/mm	195.4	69.9	35.4	42.5	47.2
	RMSE/mm	201.3	71.2	43.0	44.5	47.7
	R	0.37	0.08	0.63	0.03	0.50
RegCM模式25 km	BIAS/%	125	210	68	123	640
	MAE/mm	486.0	145.9	156.4	96.1	88.1
	RMSE/mm	489.5	146.8	161.1	97.2	88.5
	R	-0.08	0.09	-0.05	0.03	0.57
WRF模式25 km	BIAS/%	134	151	113	139	365
	MAE/mm	523.0	104.9	259.0	108.2	50.3
	RMSE/mm	524.6	105.4	261.1	108.9	51.0
	R	0.73	0.65	0.80	0.55	0.21
RegCM模式50 km	BIAS/%	169	246	122	165	565
	MAE/mm	658.8	170.5	279.5	128.4	77.9
	RMSE/mm	659.5	170.8	280.1	129.3	79.8
	R	0.83	0.76	0.83	0.52	0.29
WRF模式50 km	BIAS/%	51	60	42	51	135
	MAE/mm	197.2	41.6	95.4	40.1	18.5
	RMSE/mm	204.2	44.3	99.1	42.2	20.4
	R	0.28	0.05	0.57	0.45	0.19

Simulation of climate characteristics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by regional climate models at different horizontal resolutions

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