山西北部地区极端降水时空变化及其大气环流特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data from 1972 to 2022 and the ERA5 high-resolution monthly reanalysis data, the empirical orthogonal function “decomposition” and synthetic analysis methods were applied to analyze the interannual and interdecadal variability characteristics of extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi Province. Among the 10 extreme precipitation indices in northern Shanxi Province, the spatial distribution characteristics were greater in the southwestern region than the northeastern region, while the duration of the wet period was greater in the central region than the eastern and western regions. After 2010, northern Shanxi Province experienced frequent extreme weather events with alternating droughts and floods. Extreme precipitation occurred during the summer over many years. Weather events in northern Shanxi Province are controlled by the bottom of an abnormal trough area in the Baikal Lake region, and water vapor is transported from the Western Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Japan, and the South China Sea. There is a divergence anomaly at 200 hPa in the upper troposphere and a significant upward movement anomaly in the vertical direction, resulting in an increased frequency and stronger intensity of extreme precipitation in summer. Extreme precipitation is expected to occur in northern Shanxi Province. Affected by the strong high-pressure ridge of Lake Baikal moving southeastward, dry cold air from the north moves southward, blocking the movement of water vapor. The dynamic conditions of the troposphere are not conducive to the generation of extreme precipitation. The decadal time scale revealed a spatial distribution characteristic of more extreme precipitation in the southwest region and less in the northeast region of northern Shanxi Province. During the period of extreme precipitation and heavy rainfall (2009-2016), the convergence of cold and warm air masses generated abnormal northerly airflows and local cyclone circulation in northern Shanxi Province. In the southwestern region, there were strong low-altitude convergence and significant upward movement anomalies, which were conducive to more frequent extreme precipitation. The characteristics of the period with less rainfall (1982-1990) were the opposite.

Key words: northern Shanxi Province, extreme precipitation, temporal and spatial changes, alternate drought and flooding, atmospheric circulation anomalies

CAI Xia, SONG Yan, SU Xin, NIU Tao, KANG Zhenhao, WANG Qianjun. Spatiotemporal variations and atmospheric circulation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the northern region of Shanxi Province[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 1966-1981.

Figures/Tables 17

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指数代号	指数名称	指数定义	单位
R10 mm	中雨以上日数	日降水量≥10 mm的日数	d
R20 mm	大雨以上日数	日降水量≥20 mm的日数	d
R50 mm	暴雨以上日数	日降水量≥50 mm的日数	d
R95p	强降水量	日降水量>95%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
R99p	极强降水量	日降水量>99%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
CDD	持续干期日数	日降水量<1 mm的最大持续日数	d
CWD	持续湿期日数	日降水量≥1 mm的最大持续日数	d
Rx1day	1 d最大降水量	每月最大1 d降水量	mm
Rx5day	5 d最大降水量	每月连续5 d最大降水量	mm
PRCPTOT	年总降水量	日降水量>1 mm的年累计降水量	mm
SDII	日降水强度	年降水总量与降水日数（日降水量≥1 mm）的比值	mm·d^-1

		R10 mm	R20 mm	R50 mm	R95p	R99p	CWD	CDD	PRCPTOT	Rx1day	Rx5day	SDII
方差贡	EOF1	47.5	39.8	29.1	43.2	32.0	32.5	52.7	59.1	30.7	43.1	52.3
献率/%	EOF2	9.5	10.8	11.5	11.9	11.1	10.0	7.3	7.9	11.3	9.8	10.7

	海拔高度	SDII	PRCPTOT	Rx1day	Rx5day	R95p	R99p	R10 mm	R20 mm	R50 mm	CDD	CWD
SDII	0.144	1.000
PRCPTOT	0.766^***	0.751^***	1.000
Rx1day	0.338^**	0.737^***	0.715^***	1.000
Rx5day	0.498^***	0.886^***	0.768^***	0.838^***	1.000
R95p	0.704^***	0.907^***	0.788^***	0.857^***	0.920^***	1.000
R99p	0.666^***	0.800^***	0.685^***	0.924^***	0.890^***	0.909^***	1.000
R10 mm	0.775^***	0.728^***	0.943^***	0.547^***	0.649^***	0.644^***	0.511^***	1.000
R20 mm	0.596^***	0.918^***	0.880^***	0.718^***	0.865^***	0.915^***	0.747^***	0.825^***	1.000
R50 mm	0.398^***	0.821^***	0.696^***	0.911^***	0.880^***	0.918^***	0.981^***	0.525^***	0.766^***	1.000
CDD	-0.749^***	0.064	-0.083	-0.153	-0.046	0.012	-0.109	-0.052	0.043	-0.109	1.000
CWD	0.775^***	0.299^**	0.627^***	0.262	0.334^**	0.358^***	0.261	0.577^***	0.493^***	0.258	-0.027	1

指数代号	多雨年时段	显著性 T检验	少雨年时段	显著性 T检验
R10 mm	2009—2018年	4.140^***	1995—2008年	-2.789^***
R20 mm			1981—1990年	-2.967^***
R20 mm	2008—2018年	3.107^***	1999—2007年	-2.156^**
R50 mm	1991—1995年	2.829^***	1978—1990年	-2.703^***
R50 mm	2008—2016年	2.560^**	1996—2007年	-1.708^*
R95p	1977—1980年	1.880^*	1981—1990年	-3.538^***
R95p	2013—2018年	3.045^***	2000—2007年	-2.101^**
R99p	1976—1980年	2.077^**	1981—1990年	-3.483^***
	1991—1995年	2.399^**	2000—2007年	-2.494^**
	2013—2016年	1.731^*
Rx1day	1976—1980年	2.205^**	1981—2005年	-3.338^***
Rx1day	2006—2016年	3.626^***
Rx5day	1977—1981年	2.634^**	1982—1991年	-3.364^***
Rx5day	2012—2018年	2.850^***
SDII	1991—1999年	2.334^**	1976—1990年	-3.221^***
SDII	2013—2018年	3.714^***	2000—2007年	-1.735^*
PRCPTOT			1982—1990年	-1.999^*
PRCPTOT	2009—2018年	3.932^***	1995—2008年	-2.924^***
CWD	1976—1982年	2.933^***	1995—2005年	-4.230^***
CDD	1992—2000年	2.367^**	1986—1991年	-2.350^**
CDD	2008—2018年	2.085^**	2001—2007年	-3.556^***

Spatiotemporal variations and atmospheric circulation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the northern region of Shanxi Province

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