我国原生与恢复草原固碳能力的差异及驱动力

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.13

Abstract

Abstract:

Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important indicator that reflects grassland growth and characterizes grassland carbon sequestration capacity. This article considers four provinces in northern China as research areas. Based on multisource data, such as NPP; terrain and land types; and socioeconomic and meteorological factors, the study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in the carbon sequestration capacity of primary and restored grasslands, explores key driving forces for improving their carbon sequestration capacity, and provides reference for China in formulating targeted grassland ecological policies. The results demonstrated that the carbon sequestration capacity of restored grasslands is approximately 80% higher than that of pristine grasslands. The spatial aggregation variation of carbon sequestration in pristine grasslands (ranging from 0.534 to 0.653) is slightly narrower than that in restored grasslands (ranging from 0.511 to 0.736). Rainfall, sunshine duration, and policies related to ecological conservation zones are common driving forces that enhance carbon sequestration in both types. The optimal conditions for enhancing carbon sequestration in grasslands are rainfall that reach 600 mm and annual sunshine duration that exceed 3000 h. Temperatures more than 8 ℃ are conducive to carbon sequestration in pristine grasslands, while the optimal area for restored grasslands ranges from 100 to 200 km². Meteorological factors were the primary driving forces prior to the implementation of restoration policies; subsequently, however, the influence of policies began to intensify. The relevant departments should continue to formulate effective ecological restoration policies to help China achieve its dual carbon strategic goals as soon as possible.

Key words: arid regions, primary grasslands, restoration grasslands, carbon sequestration capability, random forest

LIU Han, GONG Yazhen, JIA Ce, LIU Shilei. Different and driving factors of carbon sequestration capacity in primary and restored grasslands in China[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(9): 1691-1702.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 33

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	变量	观测值	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差
草原固碳能力	原生草原平均NPP/（g C·m^-2·a^-1）	6360	1360.69	37.08	227.47	205.89
草原固碳能力	恢复草原平均NPP/（g C·m^-2·a^-1）	6360	1638.30	16.87	420.99	425.16
土地利用	原生草原面积/km²	6360	38197.87	0.26	4145.39	5928.45
	恢复草原面积/km²	6360	500.00	0.00	121.47	122.00
	耕地面积/km²	6360	10662.60	0.00	624.74	978.92
	城镇面积/km²	6360	286.46	0.25	28.04	32.52
	平均海拔/m	6360	4630.41	165.38	1472.11	719.41
社会经济	是否为退牧还草区	6360	1.00	0.00	0.35	0.48
	人均GDP/10⁴元	6190	46.21	0.08	3.43	4.47
	粮食产量/10⁴ t	6220	217.64	0.08	4.74	11.03
	畜牧业增加值/10⁴元	6220	35.80	0.12	4.38	4.24
	年末人口/10⁴人	6220	132.00	1.00	26.01	17.51
	地方财政一般预算支出/10⁸元	6202	165.07	0.07	14.96	15.71
气象数据	温度/℃	6360	15.90	-4.08	7.71	3.07
	降水量/mm	6360	881.67	11.66	308.77	173.89
	日照时长/h	6360	3461.76	1196.39	2443.78	607.27

	原生草原NPP					恢复草原NPP
	2001年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年	2001年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
Moran's I指数	0.594	0.598	0.637	0.653	0.534	0.736	0.596	0.636	0.511	0.537
Z得分	16.379	16.477	17.388	17.816	14.55	19.909	16.131	17.167	13.824	14.515
P值	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Different and driving factors of carbon sequestration capacity in primary and restored grasslands in China

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驱动因素	原生草原			恢复草原
驱动因素	2001—2003年	2004—2010年	2011—2020年	2001—2003年	2004—2010年	2011—2020年
年平均降水	1	1	1	3	3	3
年平均日照时长	2	2	5	2	4	4
年平均气温	3	4	3	4	5	5
海拔	4	7	7	7	9	10
耕地面积	5	9	10	5	8	8
牧业增加值	6	8	8	6	7	7
人口数量	7	10	9	9	6	6
原生草原面积	8	5	4	-	-	-
新增草原面积	-	-	-	1	2	2
人均GDP	9	11	11	8	11	13
城镇面积	10	6	6	12	10	9
粮食产量	11	12	13	10	12	12
财政预算	12	13	12	13	13	11
退牧还草区	13	3	2	11	1	1

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