气候变暖背景下黄河上游地区暴雨灾害致灾危险性演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.02

Abstract

Abstract:

The incidence of heavy rainfall disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River region has increased in recent years due to climate warming, posing risks to the long-term stability and ecological security of the basin. This study analyzed the changing characteristics of heavy rainfall events and the evolving trends of their associated hazards using meteorological observation data from 33 stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow region, spanning from 1961 to 2022. The findings revealed the following: (1) The annual mean temperature for the upper Yellow River region has shown an upward trend, with a warming rate of 0.38 ℃·(10a)^-1, and a significant change in mean temperature was observed in 1997. (2) The number and intensity of rainstorm events have increased, with daily maximum precipitation, cumulative precipitation, and the duration of these events decreasing prior to climate warming but significantly increasing thereafter, indicating that rainstorms have become more extreme. (3) Following climate warming, high-risk areas for rainstorm disasters expanded considerably, with areas classified as high-risk, higher-risk, and medium-risk increasing by 1.59%, 11.46%, and 31.64% respectively, whereas low-risk areas decreased by 44.69%. The high-risk areas are primarily located in the northeast, where population density and economic activity are significant. The results of this research can inform strategies for the prevention and management of local rainstorm disasters.

Key words: climate warming, heavy rainfall disaster, disaster risk, comprehensive evaluation method, upper reaches of the Yellow River

LI Wanzhi, DUAN Lijun, LIU Zhenlei, QI Menziyi, YU Di, YAO Haijun. Evolution characteristics of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorm disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under the context of climate warming[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(8): 1369-1378.

Figures/Tables 9

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评价指标	指标因子	指标权重
暴雨过程强度	日最大降水量	0.19
	累计降水量	0.39
	过程持续天数	0.42
孕灾环境	地形起伏度	0.27
	坡度	0.27
	河网密度	0.15
	距水体远近	0.15
	植被覆盖度	0.16
致灾危险性	暴雨过程强度指数	0.70
致灾危险性	孕灾环境影响系数	0.30

强度等级	高	较高	中等	低
百分位数阈值	IR>90%	75%<IR≤90%	60%<IR≤75%	IR≤60%
致灾危险性阈值	IR>0.71	0.46<IR≤0.71	0.32<IR≤0.46	IR≤0.32

等级	高	较高	中等	低
突变前（1961—1997年）	0.71	8.10	20.32	70.87
突变后（1998—2022年）	2.30	19.56	51.96	26.18
差值（突变后-突变前）	1.59	11.46	31.64	-44.69

Evolution characteristics of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorm disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under the context of climate warming

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