中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.06

Abstract

Abstract:

To shed light on the complex transboundary water problems in Central Asia, a study on water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) system coordination was conducted from the regional and national levels based on a system coupling perspective. First, the WEFE evaluation index system for coupling and coordination was constructed, and then the coupling coordination degree model was applied to quantitatively evaluate the level of coordinated development of WEFE and its spatial and temporal evolution in Central Asia. The results show that: (1) In the last 20 years, the coupling degree of WEFE in Central Asia basically maintained a high level, and the coupling coordination degree showed a slow growth trend but was barely coordination. (2) The development level of coupling coordination varied greatly among countries, and the coupling coordination level of Kazakhstan was the best, albeit in primary coordination. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan barely performed coordination, and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were on the brink of misalignment. (3) Comparing the development levels of multiple systems, it was found that there was a significant lag in the food system in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, a lag in the water system in Turkmenistan, and a lag in the energy system in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which failed to achieve a good match among systems and affected the regional coordinated development to a certain extent. The results can provide a basis for decision-making on the synergistic development of WEFE in Central Asia and transboundary river development cooperation among countries.

Key words: water-energy-food-ecology, Central Asia, coupling relationship, spatial-temporal evolution

WU Yueting, GUO Lidan, JING Peiran, HUANG Feng, WANG Haoxuan. Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 573-582.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Coupling degree and coupling coordination degree classification"

$C$	耦合等级	$D$	协调程度	协调类型
$0,0.3$	低水平耦合	$0,0.1$	失调衰退类	极度失调
$0.3,0.5$	拮抗阶段	$0.1,0.2$		严重失调
$0.5,0.8$	磨合阶段	$0.2,0.3$		中度失调
$0.8,1$	高水平耦合	$0.3,0.4$		轻度失调
		$0.4,0.5$	过渡类	濒临失调
		$0.5,0.6$	过渡类	勉强协调
		$0.6,0.7$	协调发展类	初级协调
		$0.7,0.8$		中级协调
		$0.8,0.9$		良好协调
		$0.9,1$		优质协调

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Average value of comprehensive evaluation index, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of WEFE in five Central Asian countries"

国家	$f x$	$g y$	$h z$	$q e$	$T$	$C$	$D$	协调类型	制约因素
塔吉克斯坦	0.664	0.397	0.069	0.429	0.389	0.759	0.544	勉强协调	粮食滞后
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0.493	0.358	0.117	0.622	0.398	0.843	0.579	勉强协调	粮食滞后
哈萨克斯坦	0.389	0.330	0.674	0.394	0.447	0.961	0.655	初级协调	能源滞后
土库曼斯坦	0.077	0.238	0.124	0.712	0.287	0.689	0.445	濒临失调	水资源滞后
乌兹别克斯坦	0.171	0.116	0.147	0.494	0.232	0.834	0.440	濒临失调	能源滞后

Tab. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

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子系统层	指标层		单位	性质	权重
水资源	水资源供给情况	人均可再生内陆水资源量	m³·人^-1	正	0.245
	水资源供给情况	产水模数	m³·hm^-2	正	0.346
	水资源消费情况	人均用水量	m³·人^-1	负	0.068
	用水效益	万元GDP用水量	m³·(10⁴元)^-1	负	0.019
	用水结构	农业用水比例	%	负	0.269
	用水结构	工业用水比例	%	负	0.053
能源	能源供给情况	人均能源生产量	TJ	正	0.255
	能源消费情况	人均能源消费量	TJ	负	0.069
	能源供给结构	煤炭产量比例	%	正	0.218
	能源消费结构	生活用电比例	%	正	0.127
	能源消费结构	可再生能源消费比例	%	正	0.303
	能源利用效益	万元GDP能耗	TJ·(10⁴元)^-1	负	0.028
粮食	粮食生产情况	人均粮食产量	t·人^-1	正	0.158
	粮食生产情况	粮食单产	kg·hm^-2	正	0.093
	粮食生产稳定性	粮食产量波动率	%	负	0.019
	粮食种植结构	粮食种植面积	hm²	正	0.402
	粮食种植结构	人均耕地面积	hm²·人^-1	正	0.295
	粮食需求	人口自然增长率	%	负	0.033
生态	生态环境水平	森林覆盖率	%	正	0.381
	生态环境水平	保护区占陆地面积比例	%	正	0.190
	环境污染情况	工业废水排放量	t	负	0.078
	环境污染情况	能源二氧化碳排放量	t	负	0.126
	对生态环境的压力	人口密度	人·km^-2	负	0.225

Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries

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