基于博弈论组合赋权的洪水风险评价——以武威地区为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.13

Abstract

Abstract:

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in the world, and the Chinese region has shown the most significant increase in flood risk worldwide. Based on the frequency of flash floods in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, a flood risk assessment method combined with subjective and objective weights and based on game theory was adopted and GIS technology was applied. Seven indicators were selected to construct a flood risk assessment index system from three aspects: disaster dangers, disaster environment sensitivity, and suffering flexibility. Then, the risk zoning chart of flood disaster in Wuwei was drawn, which showed that the overall flood risk level of Wuwei City is low and flood risk shows a decreasing distribution characteristic from southwest to northeast. The results are in good agreement with historic flood event data in which the highest risk area accounts only for 4.94% of the total area, which is concentrated at the junction of Liangzhou District and Gulang County and southwest of Tianzhu County. The sum of the lowest risk area and the lower risk area accounts for 43.84% of the total area, which is concentrated in the eastern desert area of Minqin County. The main sources of flood risk vary among counties in Wuwei City. The risk of disaster-causing factors presents a belt-like distribution characteristic that decreases from southwest to northeast. The highest risk areas are distributed mainly in the Qilian Mountains of Tianzhu County, and the lowest risk areas are concentrated in lower reaches of the Shiyang River in the northeast. The distribution of the disaster environment sensitivity is relatively uniform except for the Qilian Mountains with higher stability. There are obvious differences in the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the vulnerability at the junction of Liangzhou County and Gulang County is much higher than that of other regions. The entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are used for comparison with the game theory combination weighting method, which demonstrates that the combination weighting method of game theory can reduce the subjectivity of the single weighting method, improve the accuracy of the flood risk map, and provide valuable information for flood management.

Key words: flood disaster, risk zoning, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, entropy method, Wuwei Region

SU Guangquan,LYU Haishen,ZHU Yonghua,CHEN Tingxing,HUA Jiacheng. Combined weight method based on game theory for flood risk assessment in the Wuwei Region[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 801-809.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 24

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准则层	指标层	赋权结果
准则层	指标层	熵权法	AHP	组合权重
致灾因子危害性	历史最大日降雨量（RF）	0.070	0.413	0.233
致灾因子危害性	暴雨次数（RFT）	0.197	0.131	0.166
孕灾环境稳定性	高程标准差（DEM）	0.009	0.113	0.058
	归一化植被指数（NDVI）	0.071	0.067	0.038
	水系距离（DR）	0.011	0.073	0.072
承灾体脆弱性	人口密度（POP）	0.306	0.138	0.226
承灾体脆弱性	GDP密度（GDP）	0.336	0.067	0.208

历史洪水	洪水次数/次	AHP	熵权法	组合赋权	历史洪水	洪水次数/次	AHP	熵权法	组合赋权
打柴沟镇	17	较高	中	较高	古丰乡	8	较高	中	较高
华藏寺镇	17	高	中	较高	钱宝乡	8	较高	较低	较高
黄羊川镇	16	较高	中	较高	松山镇	8	高	较低	较高
安远镇	15	较高	中	较高	朱岔乡	8	较高	中	较高
干城乡	13	较高	中	较高	旦马乡	7	高	中	较高
新堡乡	13	较高	中	较高	康宁乡	7	较高	较低	中
十八里堡	12	较高	中	较高	石门镇	7	较低	较低	较低
西营镇	12	中	中	中	古浪镇	6	较高	中	较高
哈溪镇	11	高	中	较高	大红沟乡	5	较高	中	较高
横梁乡	11	较高	中	较高	黄羊镇	5	中	较高	较高
天堂镇	10	较高	中	较高	金塔乡	4	中	较高	较高
东大滩乡	9	较高	较低	中	抓喜秀龙	4	高	中	较高
炭山岭镇	9	较高	中	较高	高坝镇	3	较低	较低	较低
西大滩乡	9	较高	较低	中	西靖乡	3	较低	低	较低
朵什乡	8	较高	较低	中

Combined weight method based on game theory for flood risk assessment in the Wuwei Region

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