哈萨克斯坦首都努尔苏丹人工林健康评价

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过分析努尔苏丹不同人工林,筛选健康综合评价指标,建立健康综合评价模型,为努尔苏丹及其周边人工林提供健康综合评价理论基础。调查努尔苏丹25块人工林样地和2块天然林样地,选取林下植物Shannon-Wiener指数（X₁）、Pielou指数（X₂）、Simpson指数（X₃）、林分空间综合结构综合指数（X₄）、土壤有机质（X₅）、全氮（X₆）、全磷（X₇）、pH（X₈）、质量含水量（X₉）、林木平均株高（X₁₀）、平均胸径（X₁₁）、平均枝下高（X₁₂）、平均冠幅（X₁₃）和林下更新（X₁₄）共14个指标,采用因子分析、聚类分析、判别分析和逐步回归分析等多元统计分析法,对努尔苏丹人工林健康状况开展综合评价。通过因子分析将14个单项指标转换为4个相互独立的综合指标,其贡献率分别为30.482%、24.374%、19.711%和8.646%,代表了全部数据83.212%的信息量。结合因子得分系数矩阵与各因子权重得到健康综合得分值。对健康综合得分值进行聚类分析,将选择的样地划分为5类,优质健康（Ⅰ）、良好健康（Ⅱ）、一般健康（Ⅲ）、亚健康（Ⅳ）和不健康（Ⅴ）。使用判别分析验证聚类分析的效果,其自身验证与交叉验证的准确率分别为100%、85.185%。采取逐步回归分析建立努尔苏丹人工林健康评价最优数学模型,H=0+0.293X₁₃+0.186X₅+0.079X₃+0.100X₂+0.038X₇（R²=0.987）,筛选出5个判断人工林健康状况的指标,分别为平均冠幅、土壤有机质、Simpson指数、Pielou指数和土壤全磷。平均冠幅、土壤有机质、Simpson指数、Pielou指数和土壤全磷可作为判断努尔苏丹人工林健康状况的指标,可在相同条件下测定这5项指标,计算健康综合评价值并预测其健康状况。

关键词: 人工林, 因子分析, 聚类分析, 判别分析, 逐步回归分析, 健康评价

Abstract:

The study was performed in Nursultan and its surroundings. Its principal aims are to explore the methods of plantation health assessment, analyze different plantations, screen suitable assessment indexes of plantation health, and establish an evaluation model of plantation health, which would provide theoretical support for health assessment in the region. Twenty-five plantation plots and two natural forest plots were analyzed. Shannon-Wiener index (X₁), Pielou index (X₂), Simpson index (X₃), stand spatial structure optimization object function(X₄), soil organic matter content (X₅), soil total nitrogen content (X₆), soil total phosphorus content (X₇), soil pH (X₈), soil moisture (X₉), mean tree height (X₁₀), mean breast diameter (X₁₁), mean height under branches (X₁₂), mean canopy (X₁₃), and forest regeneration (X₁₄) were evaluated. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and stepwise regression analysis were used to comprehensively assess the plantations. Fourteen single indicators were converted into four independent indicators through factor analysis. The contribution rates of the first four factors were 30.482%, 24.374%, 19.711%, and 8.646%, representing 83.212% of the original data variance. The health score value was calculated through the factor score coefficient matrix and the weight of each factor. Cluster analysis was performed on comprehensive health scores, and plots were divided into five categories: (Ⅰ) a high-quality type, (Ⅱ) a satisfied type, (Ⅲ) a moderate type, (Ⅳ) a vulnerable type, and (Ⅴ) an unhealthy type. The results of discriminant analysis and cluster analysis were similar. The accuracy of the self-verification and cross-validation were 100% and 85.185%. The optimal mathematical model for plantation health assessment was established as H=0+0.293X₁₃+0.186X₅+0.079X₃+0.100X₂+0.038X₇(R²=0.987). Five indexes for plantation health assessment were selected: Mean canopy, soil organic matter content, Simpson index, Pielou index and soil total phosphorus content. Mean canopy, soil organic matter content, Simpson index, Pielou index, and soil total phosphorus content could be used to assess the health of plantations in the region. The comprehensive assessment value of the five indexes could be calculated to predict healthy conditions by measuring the five indexes under the same conditions.

Key words: plantations, factor analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, stepwise regression analysis, health assessment

闫晋升,王永东,娄泊远,艾柯代·艾斯凯尔,徐新文. 哈萨克斯坦首都努尔苏丹人工林健康评价[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(5): 1474-1483.

YAN Jinsheng,WANG Yongdong,LOU Boyuan,Akida Askar,XU Xinwen. Health assessment of plantations in Nursultan, capital of Kazakhstan[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1474-1483.

图/表 7

表1

样地信息表"

样地	经纬度	海拔/m	树种配置	龄组划分	种植年份	林带走向
M₁	50°59'51.39"N,71°24'13.11"E	364	A-P-A-P-A	幼龄林	2003	N-S
M₂	50°59'42.85"N,71°25'33.48"E	351	U-A-U-A	幼龄林	2003	N-S
M₃	50°55'41.98"N,71°23'39.47"E	346	M-A-P-A-P-M	幼龄林	2010	N-S
M₄	50°55'39.56"N,71°23'52.77"E	361	M-S-Po-S-E	幼龄林	2010	N-S
M₅	50°57'45.52"N,71°24'45.64"E	354	F-E-A-A-E-A	幼龄林	2009	NW-SE
M₆	51°10'41.84"N,71°38'52.43"E	436	P-P-P-C-C	成熟林	1970	NW-SE
M₇	51°11'06.17"N,71°39'12.21"E	429	B(天然林)	中龄林	天然林	天然林
M₈	51°11'09.35"N,71°39'08.50"E	418	Co-P-B-P-H	幼龄林	2015	NW-SE
M₉	51°14'10.48"N,71°42'59.20"E	411	M-M-M-M-M-M	过熟林	1963	N-S
M₁₀	51°14'17.69"N,71°43'14.50"E	414	P-P-P-P-P-P	成熟林	1970	NW-SE
M₁₁	51°14'15.15"N,71°43'27.51"E	427	B-B-B-A-Co	幼龄林	2004	NE-SW
M₁₂	51°14'15.56"N,71°43'20.49"E	419	U-P-U-P-U	幼龄林	2015	NE-SW
M₁₃	51°09'11.42"N,71°40'04.05"E	383	R-B-B-B-R	幼龄林	2003	NE-SW
M₁₄	51°09'11.28"N,71°36'58.95"E	382	B(天然林)	中龄林	天然林	天然林
M₁₅	51°09'11.32"N,71°39'47.07"E	385	P-P-P-P-P	幼龄林	2016	NE-SW
M₁₆	51°03'36.37"N,71°57'03.96"E	378	U-B-B-U-E	幼龄林	2004	NE-SW
M₁₇	51°05'38.27"N,71°48'22.11"E	370	A-A-A-B-B	幼龄林	2005	W-E
M₁₈	51°04'09.34"N,71°50'06.25"E	383	B-B-B-A-R	幼龄林	2005	NE-SW
M₁₉	51°33'05.25"N,71°07'13.07"E	442	B-B-B-B-M	幼龄林	2007	NE-SW
M₂₀	51°32'03.96"N,71°05'33.42"E	437	B-B-B-B-B-Co	幼龄林	2007	NE-SW
M₂₁	51°24'24.88"N,71°18'25.51"E	356	E-M-E-Co	幼龄林	2009	NW-SE
M₂₂	51°14'29.25"N,71°39'21.05"E	400	R-R-E-E-E	幼龄林	2004	NE-SW
M₂₃	51°12'03.02"N,71°41'53.49"E	418	P-P-P-Co-A-R-R	幼龄林	2004	W-E
M₂₄	51°11'31.71"N,71°39'26.49"E	429	E-E-E-A-A	幼龄林	2003	N-S
M₂₅	51°11'03.48"N,71°05'12.39"E	356	Co-A-A-A-E	幼龄林	2008	W-E
M₂₆	51°08'03.07"N,71°01'53.97"E	367	Ri-A-U-U-A-Ri	幼龄林	2008	NE-SW
M₂₇	51°05'59.03"N,71°04'17.72"E	349	Ri-U-U-U-U-A	幼龄林	2008	W-E

表1

图1

表2

表3

表4

图2

表5

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因子	初始特征值			旋转后的特征值
因子	特征值	方差百分比/%	累积/%	特征值	方差百分比	累积/%
F₁	5.765	41.181	41.181	4.267	30.482	30.482
F₂	2.468	17.630	58.811	3.412	24.374	54.855
F₃	2.223	15.878	74.689	2.760	19.711	74.566
F₄	1.193	8.523	83.212	1.210	8.646	83.212

指标		成分				指标		成分
指标		1	2	3	4	指标		1	2	3	4
Shannon-Wiener指数	X₁	0.216	0.947	-0.008	-0.038	pH	X₈	-0.653	-0.043	-0.126	0.195
Pielou指数	X₂	0.260	0.909	-0.054	-0.036	质量含水量	X₉	-0.329	0.254	0.657	-0.196
Simpson指数	X₃	0.155	0.966	0.118	0.065	平均株高	X₁₀	0.924	0.256	0.048	0.026
FSI	X₄	0.109	0.633	0.388	0.093	平均胸径	X₁₁	0.911	0.230	-0.034	0.118
有机质	X₅	0.512	0.076	0.791	-0.120	平均枝下高	X₁₂	0.940	0.146	0.058	-0.106
全氮	X₆	0.311	0.043	0.867	0.038	平均冠幅	X₁₃	0.806	0.375	0.157	0.373
全磷	X₇	-0.062	-0.011	0.856	0.226	林下更新得分	X₁₄	-0.040	0.028	0.047	0.942

样地	健康综合得分	因子得分				样地	健康综合得分	因子得分
样地	健康综合得分	1	2	3	4	样地	健康综合得分	1	2	3	4
M₁	0.020	-0.233	-0.383	0.329	1.325	M₁₅	-1.590	-0.576	-3.267	-1.454	-0.745
M₂	0.520	0.302	-0.270	0.873	2.675	M₁₆	0.140	-0.028	0.658	-0.997	1.844
M₃	-0.170	-0.627	0.385	-0.229	-0.032	M₁₇	-0.350	-0.308	0.440	-1.405	-0.275
M₄	-0.260	-0.793	-0.029	0.144	0.014	M₁₈	-0.220	-0.158	0.507	-1.246	-0.106
M₅	-0.180	-0.499	-0.277	0.322	0.101	M₁₉	0.210	0.082	-0.305	1.297	-0.411
M₆	0.760	2.395	-0.387	-0.046	0.053	M₂₀	0.170	-0.251	0.229	1.021	-0.459
M₇	0.620	1.254	0.113	0.768	-0.567	M₂₁	0.050	-0.531	0.509	0.835	-0.969
M₈	-0.210	0.206	-0.228	-0.911	-0.063	M₂₂	-0.060	-1.382	1.398	0.817	-1.465
M₉	0.200	-0.107	0.928	0.159	-0.659	M₂₃	-0.350	-0.456	0.445	-1.161	-0.343
M₁₀	0.940	2.896	0.643	-1.083	-0.496	M₂₄	0.070	-0.357	0.491	-0.636	1.971
M₁₁	-0.070	0.129	0.588	-0.858	-0.824	M₂₅	-0.250	-0.999	-0.284	0.954	-0.240
M₁₂	-1.020	-0.299	-2.704	-0.171	-0.796	M₂₆	0.040	-0.546	-0.479	0.873	1.649
M₁₃	-0.050	-0.095	1.167	-1.325	-0.382	M₂₇	0.000	-0.905	0.492	0.944	-0.343
M₁₄	1.050	1.885	-0.380	2.184	-0.459

聚类编号	健康等级	判别函数
聚类编号	健康等级	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄
1	Ⅲ	0.993	-1.077	0.094	0.139
2	Ⅱ	4.828	2.122	0.592	-0.204
3	Ⅳ	-1.817	-0.865	-0.224	-0.196
4	Ⅰ	7.600	3.593	-0.663	0.129
5	Ⅴ	-13.536	3.142	0.106	0.129