干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 652-.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2020.03.13

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1979—2017年青藏高原色林错流域气候变化分析

王坤鑫1,2，张寅生1,3，张腾1,2，余坤伦1,2，郭燕红1，马宁1   

  1. （1. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所环境变化与地表过程重点实验室，北京100101； 2. 中国科学院大学，北京100101；3. 中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心，北京100101）
  • 出版日期:2020-05-15 发布日期:2020-06-18
  • 通讯作者: 张寅生. E-mail: yszhang@itpcas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王坤鑫（1992-），女，博士研究生，主要从事寒区水文气象研究. E-mail: wangkunxin@itpcas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略先导A专项(XDA20060201); 国家自然科学基金项目(41430748); 国家重点研发项目(2017YFA0603101)；国家自然科学基金青年项目(41701082, 41801051)资助

Analysis of climate change in the Selin Co Basin,Tibetan-Plateau,from 1979 to 2017

WANG Kunxin1,2,ZHANGYinsheng1,3,ZHANG Teng1,2,YU Kunlun1,2,GUO Yanhong1,MA Ning1   

  1. (1. Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;3. Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
  • Online:2020-05-15 Published:2020-06-18

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摘要： 利用中国区域地面气象要素数据集(CMFD) 和GLDAS数据集的1979—2017年格点气温(2 m)、降水、比湿、风速(10m)、太阳辐射资料，运用线性回归、累积距平、滑动平均及Mann-Kendall突变检验方法，研究了近39 a来色林错流域气候特征和时空变化规律。结果表明：色林错流域多年平均气温为-1.8℃，降水量为389.4mm，比湿为3.2g·kg-1，太阳辐射为236.2W·m-2，风速为3.7m·s-1。色林错流域的月平均气温仅在5—9月高于0℃，流域平均气温以0.049℃·a-1的速率呈显著升高之势。流域降水集中在6—9月，占全年降水量的80%以上，流域平均年降水量以4.65mm·a-1的速率显著增大。气温的升高和降水的增加暗示了色林错流域在近几十年来呈现显著的暖湿气候背景。1979—2017年，流域年均风速变化在空间上表现为南部增大、北部减小，减小速率以流域东北部最大。多年平均太阳辐射空间分布整体呈自东向西逐渐增大的趋势，时间变化以-0.29W·m-2·a-1的速率显著减小，1980s中期至2000s中期减小尤为明显。流域的年均比湿变化趋势并不显著，但2006年开始呈显著减小之势。本研究结果对该流域的湖泊扩张机制、生态系统对气候变化的响应以及物候变化等研究具有指示意义。

关键词: 青藏高原, 色林错流域, 气候特征, 气候变化, 趋势分析

Abstract: In this study,data from the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS),including air temperature (2m),precipitation,specific humidity,wind speed (10m) and solar radiation,were used to study the modern climate characteristics of the Selin Co Basin,as well as its spatial-temporal variations throughout 39 years from 1979 to 2017 using linear tendency estimation,the Mann-Kendall mutation test,five-year moving average,and cumulative anomaly methods. Results showed that the multi-year annual average temperature,specific humidity,solar radiation,and wind speed were -1.8℃,3.2g·kg-1,236.2 W·m-2,and 3.7m·s-1,respectively. The multi-year average annual precipitation was 389.4 mm. For all years,monthly average temperatures were above 0℃ from May to September and generally lower than 0℃ in the other months. Between 1979 and 2017,the annual average temperature in the Selin Co Basin increased significantly at a rate of 0.049℃·a-1. 80% of the annual precipitation occurred between June and September. The annual average precipitation in the basin for the same period also increased significantly at a rate of 4.65mm·a-1. Together,increased temperature and precipitation demonstrates an obvious changing climate characterized by a tendency toward warmer and wetter conditions during the last 20 years. During the same period,wind speed showed an increasing trend in the southern region and a decreasing trend in northern region,with the largest rate of decrease occurring in northeast of the basin. From east to west,the multi-year annual average solar radiation gradually increased. Solar radiation showed a significant decrease at a rate of -0.29 W·m-2·a-1 throughout the last 39 years,especially from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. Moreover,while specific humidity did not show a significant change,it exhibited a significant decreasing trend since 2006. Results of this study are indicative for delineating the mechanism of lake expansion,the response of ecosystems to climate change,and phenological changes.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, Selin Co Basin, climate characteristics, climate change, trend analysis