哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价及其影响因素识别

干旱区研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 254-263.

哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价及其影响因素识别

朱薇^1,2,3，周宏飞^1,2，李兰海^1,4，闫英杰^1,2,3

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐830011；
2. 中国科学院阜康荒漠生态实验站，新疆阜康831505； 3. 中国科学院大学，北京100049； 4. 中国科学院伊犁河流域生态系统研究站，新疆新源 835800

收稿日期:2019-06-06 修回日期:2019-10-08 出版日期:2020-01-15 发布日期:2020-01-14
通讯作者: 周宏飞
作者简介:朱薇（1995-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为干旱区水文与水资源
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）资助“水土资源脆弱性与土地资源开发利用风险”（XDA2004030202）

Evaluation on Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Water and Land Resources and Identification of Affecting Factors in Kazakhstan

ZHU Wei^{1, 2, 3}, ZHOU Hong-fei^1,
2, LI Lan-hai^{1, 4}, YAN Ying-jie^{1, 2, 3}

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;
2. Fukang Station of Desert Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Fukang 831505,Xinjiang,China;
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;
4. Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xinyuan 835800,Xinjiang, China

Received:2019-06-06 Revised:2019-10-08 Online:2020-01-15 Published:2020-01-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水土资源的数量与质量对农业可持续发展具有重要意义。选取22个指标建立了哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价体系，将层次分析法、熵权法与模糊综合评价模型相结合，分析了哈萨克斯坦2001—2017年农业水土资源承载力的动态变化及区域差异，用障碍度法定量识别其影响因素。结果表明：① 2001—2017年，哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力整体呈波动缓慢上升趋势，水土资源子系统和经济子系统的评价指数缓慢上升，生态子系统和社会子系统评价指数明显下降。② 农业水土资源承载力在地区间差异显著，高承载力区主要集中在北部、中部和东部地区，低承载力区在南部和西部地区。北哈萨克斯坦州、科斯塔奈州和阿克莫拉州的承载力高，呈逐年增大趋势，阿特劳州和南哈萨克斯坦州的承载力较低，且呈减小趋势。③ 承载力在2001—2009年主要受垦殖率、单位耕地面积农业产值及农业灌溉率的影响，在2010—2017年主要受农业水土资源匹配系数、人口密度及单位土地污水负荷的影响，生态环境因素逐渐成为承载力障碍因子。

关键词: 农业, 水土资源, 承载力, 模糊综合评价法, 哈萨克斯坦

Abstract: The quantity and quality of water and land resources are of great significance to the sustainable development of agriculture. The 22 indicators were used to establish the evaluation system of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan. The analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model were combined to analyze the dynamic change and regional difference of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2017. The obstacle method was used to quantitatively identify the influencing factors. The results showed that: = 1 \* GB3 ① From 2001 to 2017, the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan showed a slow upward trend, and the evaluation indexes of the water and land resources subsystem and the economic subsystem were all increased slowly, but those of the ecology subsystem and social subsystem were significantly decreased; = 2 \* GB3 ② The carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources was significantly different from different regions. The areas with high carrying capacity were mainly distributed in the northern, central and eastern regions, and those with low one were in the southern and western regions. The carrying capacity in North Kazakhstan, Costanay and Akmola was increased year by year, but that in Atyrau and Baplodar was low and decreased; = 3 \* GB3 ③ The carrying capacity was mainly affected by the reclamation rate (C₂), agricultural output value per unit area of cultivated land (C₁₆) and agricultural irrigation rate (C₄) during 2001-2009, but it was mainly affected by the agricultural water and land resources matching coefficient (C₁), population density (C₁₀) and land sewage load per unit area (C₂₀) during 2010-2017. The factors related to the eco-environment have gradually became as the barriers to the carrying capacity.

Key words: agriculture')">

agriculture, water and land resources, carrying capacity, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, ')">Kazakhstan

朱薇, 周宏飞, 李兰海, 闫英杰. 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价及其影响因素识别[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(1): 254-263.

ZHU Wei, ZHOU Hong-fei, LI Lan-hai, YAN Ying-jie. Evaluation on Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Water and Land Resources and Identification of Affecting Factors in Kazakhstan[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(1): 254-263.

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