库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.11

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 1102-1111.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.11

库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用

卢方园^1,²(),贾德彬^1,²(),高瑞忠^1,²,苏文旭^1,²,赵航^1,²,杨丽娜^1,²

1.内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
2.内蒙古自治区水资源保护与利用重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特 010010

收稿日期:2021-10-14 修回日期:2022-03-05 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-09-26
通讯作者: 贾德彬
作者简介:卢方园（1996-）,女,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源承载力及水资源合理配置等研究. E-mail: 892714610@qq.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项“库布齐沙漠水资源可持续利用与植物耦合技术体系研发”(2019ZD002);国家自然科学基金项目(51869018)

Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert

LU Fangyuan^1,²(),JIA Debin^1,²(),GAO Ruizhong^1,²,SU Wenxu^1,²,ZHAO Hang^1,²,YANG Li’na^1,²

1. School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Key Laboratory of Water Resources Protection and Utilization of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2021-10-14 Revised:2022-03-05 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-09-26
Contact: Debin JIA

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在整合1999—2019年库布齐沙漠区域水资源和社会经济数据的基础上,采用系统动力学模型对库布齐沙漠水资源-社会-生态系统进行仿真模拟,分析1999—2019年库布齐沙漠社会经济和用水时空变化特征,同时建立多情景参数调控模型,综合模拟在不同参数影响下该地区水资源需水总量变化。结果表明：（1）不采取其他措施情况下（常规发展模式）,2035年需水总量达11.90×10⁸m³,大于该区域供水总量,呈超载状态。（2）通过不同参数方案调节后,保持该区域种植面积不变,现状灌溉方式不变,需水量为9.76×10⁸m³,滴灌普及率达50%以上（S3）,将处于可载状态,且需水量下降至7.80×10⁸m³,对沙漠水资源供需矛盾有所缓解。建议在建设库布齐沙漠生态恢复过程中,应着重推广滴灌节水,合理使用当地水资源,持续发展生态。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 系统动力学, 沙漠, 干旱区, 库布齐沙漠

Abstract:

Based on the integration of water resources and socio-economic data in the Kubuqi Desert from 1999 to 2019, this paper used the system dynamic model to simulate the water resource-society-ecological system of the Kubuqi Desert. In addition, a multi-scenario parameter control model was established to comprehensively simulate the changes in the total water demand of water resources in the region under the influence of different parameters. Results show that if no other measures are taken (conventional development mode), then the total water demand in 2035 will reach 11.90 per one hundred million cubic meters, which is greater than the total water supply in the region, showing an overload state. After adjustment for different parameter schemes, the planting area and current irrigation method remain unchanged, and the water demand is 9.76 per one hundred million cubic meters. In addition, the penetration rate of drip irrigation exceeds 50% (S3), showing a loadable state, and the water demand will drop to 7.80 per one hundred million cubic meters, which alleviates the contradiction between the supply and demand of desert water resources. Therefore, during ecological restoration of the Kubuqi Desert, emphasis should be placed on the promotion of drip irrigation to save water, rational use of local water resources, and sustainable ecological development.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics, desert, arid area, Kubuqi Desert

卢方园,贾德彬,高瑞忠,苏文旭,赵航,杨丽娜. 库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(4): 1102-1111.

LU Fangyuan,JIA Debin,GAO Ruizhong,SU Wenxu,ZHAO Hang,YANG Li’na. Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(4): 1102-1111.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

图4

图5

表3

图6

表4

图7

参考文献 34

[1]	王睿. 库布齐沙漠东缘防沙治沙生态效益评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018, 38(5): 174-179, 188.
	[Wang Rui. Evaluation of ecological benefit of combating desertification in east edge of Hobq Desert[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2018, 38(5): 174-179, 188.]
[2]	王睿, 杨国靖. 库布齐沙漠生态治理的生态经济系统耦合分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(5): 1391-1400.
	[Wang Rui, Yang Guojing. Coupling analysis of eco-economic system for ecological management in the Hobq Desert[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(5): 1391-1400.]
[3]	于法稳, 方兰. 黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的若干问题[J]. 中国软科学, 2020(6): 85-95.
	[Yu Fawen, Fang Lan. Issues regarding the ecological protection and high-quality development of Yellow River basin[J]. China Soft Science, 2020(6): 85-95.]
[4]	黄昌硕, 耿雷华, 颜冰, 等. 水资源承载力动态预测与调控——以黄河流域为例[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(1): 59-67.
	[Huang Changshuo, Geng Leihua, Yan Bing, et al. Dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity: A case study on the Yellow River basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021, 32(1): 59-67.]
[5]	施雅风, 曲耀光. 乌鲁木齐河流域水资源承载力及其合理利用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1992: 94-111.
	[Shi Yafeng, Qu Yaoguang. The Carrying Capacity of Water Resources and Its Reasonable Use of Urumqi River[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1992: 94-111.]
[6]	吕一河, 傅微, 李婷, 等. 区域资源环境综合承载力研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(1): 130-138. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.01.014
	[Lyu Yihe, Fu Wei, Li Ting, et al. Progress and prospects of research on integrated carrying capacity of regional resources and environment[J]. Progress in Geography, 2018, 37(1): 130-138.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.01.014
[7]	朱薇, 周宏飞, 李兰海, 等. 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力评价及其影响因素识别[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(1): 254-263.
	[Zhu Wei, Zhou Hongfei, Li Lanhai, et al. Evaluation on carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources and identification of affecting factors in Kazakhstan[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(1): 254-263.]
[8]	刘爽, 白洁, 罗格平, 等. 咸海流域社会经济用水分析与预测[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1257-1273. doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105016
	[Liu Shuang, Bai Jie, Luo Geping, et al. Analysis and prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1257-1273.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105016
[9]	金菊良, 董涛, 郦建强, 等. 不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J]. 水科学进展, 2018, 29(1): 31-39.
	[Jin Juliang, Dong Tao, Li Jianqiang, et al. Water resources carrying capacity evaluation method under different carrying standards[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018, 29(1): 31-39.]
[10]	王建华, 姜大川, 肖伟华, 等. 基于动态试算反馈的水资源承载力评价方法研究——以沂河流域(临沂段)为例[J]. 水利学报, 2016, 47(6): 724-732.
	[Wang Jianhua, Jiang Dachuan, Xiao Weihua, et al. Assessment method of water resources carrying capacity based on dynamic trial calculation and feedback: A case study on the Yihe River (Linyi section)[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2016, 47(6): 724-732.]
[11]	封志明, 杨艳昭, 闫慧敏, 等. 百年来的资源环境承载力研究:从理论到实践[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(3): 379-395. doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.03.01
	[Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, Yan Huimin, et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20th Century: From theory to practice[J]. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3): 379-395.] doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.03.01
[12]	Tian Jing, Guo Shenglian, Deng Lele, et al. Adaptive optimal allocation of water resources response to future water availability and water demand in the Han River basin, China[J]. Scientific Reports, 2021, 11(1): 7879. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86961-1 pmid: 33846438
[13]	郭维红, 黄珺嫦, 张二超. 基于SD模型的河南省水资源承载力模拟研究[J]. 河南农业大学学报, 2020, 54(4): 689-697.
	[Guo Weihong, Huang Junchang, Zhang Erchao. Simulation study of water resource carrying capacity in Henan Province based on SD model[J]. Journal of Henan Agricultural University, 2020, 54(4): 689-697.]
[14]	刘昆. 基于榆林市资源环境承载力的计量分析[J]. 西部皮革, 2020, 42(2): 88-90.
	[Liu Kun. Quantitative analysis based on the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Yulin City[J]. West Leather, 2020, 42(2): 88-90.]
[15]	崔丹, 陈馨, 曾维华. 水环境承载力中长期预警研究——以昆明市为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2018, 38(3): 1174-1184.
	[Cui Dan, Chen Xin, Zeng Weihua. Investigations on the medium-to-long term early warning of water environmental carrying capacity: A case study of Kunming City[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018, 38(3): 1174-1184.]
[16]	位帅, 陈志和, 梁剑喜, 等. 基于SD模型的中山市水资源系统特征及其演变规律分析[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(6): 1158-1167.
	[Wei Shuai, Chen Zhihe, Liang Jianxi, et al. Analysis of water resource system characteristics and variation law for Zhongshan city based on system dynamics[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(6): 1158-1167.]
[17]	金菊良, 沈时兴, 崔毅, 等. 半偏减法集对势在引黄灌区水资源承载力动态评价中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 2021, 52(5): 507-520.
	[Jin Juliang, Shen Shixing, Cui Yi, et al. Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River diversion irrigation district based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2021, 52(5): 507-520.]
[18]	王耕, 李优. 基于SD模型的城市生活垃圾资源化处理模拟研究——以大连市为例[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2016, 6(5): 493-500.
	[Wang Geng, Li You. Simulation of municipal solid waste resource recovery based on system dynamics model: The case of Dalian[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2016, 6(5): 493-500.]
[19]	林龙圳, 李达, 林震. 基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的库布齐沙漠地区水资源承载力评价[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 54(4): 640-648.
	[Lin Longzhen, Li Da, Lin Zhen. Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Kubuqi Desert Area based on entropy weight and TOPSIS model[J]. Journal of Central China Normal University (Naturnal Science Edition), 2020, 54(4): 640-648.]
[20]	王博, 段玉玺, 王伟峰, 等. 人工固沙区植被演替过程中土壤水分时空分异特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(4): 881-889.
	[Wang Bo, Duan Yuxi, Wang Weifeng, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture content during vegetation succession in sand-binding areas[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(4): 881-889.]
[21]	曲修齐, 刘淼, 李春林, 等. 环渤海地区综合承载力评估与预测[J]. 土壤通报, 2020, 51(3): 552-560.
	[Qu Xiuqi, Liu Miao, Li Chunlin, et al. Evaluation and prediction of the comprehensive carrying capacity in the Bohai-Ring region[J]. Chinese Journal of Soil Science, 2020, 51(3): 552-560.]
[22]	翟晨阳, 王圣云. 基于系统动力学的鄱阳湖区多维福祉时空差异演变与情景模拟[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(8): 2954-2967.
	[Zhai Chenyang, Wang Shengyun. Spatio-temporal difference evolution and scenario simulation of multi-dimensional well-being in Poyang Lake area based on system dynamics[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021, 41(8): 2954-2967.]
[23]	朱文礼, 张礼兵, 伍露露, 等. 基于系统模拟的县域水资源承载力动态预测及调控研究——以庐江县为例[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2020(2): 16-22.
	[Zhu Wenli, Zhang Libing, Wu Lulu, et al. Research on the dynamic prediction and regulation of quantitative and quality elements of water resources carrying county: Level capacity based on system dynamics method[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2020(2): 16-22.]
[24]	康艳, 闫亚廷, 杨斌. 基于 LMDI-SD 耦合模型的绿色发展灌区水资源承载力模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(19): 150-160.
	[Kang Yan, Yan Yating, Yang Bin. Simulation of water resource carrying capacity based on LMDI-SD model in green development irrigation areas[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2020, 36(19): 150-160.]
[25]	秦欢欢, 赖冬蓉, 万卫. 江西省用水结构变化及影响因素分析[J]. 江西水利科技, 2018, 44(5): 324-329, 368.
	[Qin Huanhuan, Lai Dongrong, Wan Wei. Analysis of water use structure variation and its influence factors for Jiangxi Province[J]. Jiangxi Hydraulic Science ＆ Technology, 2018, 44(5): 324-329, 368.]
[26]	Wang Huan, Zai Meimei. Research on the evaluation model of multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources in Guizhou Province[J]. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 2020, 914(1): 012018. doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/914/1/012018
[27]	姚翠友, 陈国娇, 张阳. 基于系统动力学的城市生态系统建设路径研究——以天津市为例[J]. 环境科学学报, 2020, 40(5): 1921-1930.
	[Yao Cuiyou, Chen Guojiao, Zhang Yang. Research on construction path of urban ecosystem based on system dynamics: The case of Tianjin[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2020, 40(5): 1921-1930.]
[28]	张思俊, 何莉, 吴霜, 等. 宣化区农业水资源系统仿真与优化配置[J]. 湖北工业大学学报, 2020, 35(1): 29-32, 37.
	[Zhang Sijun, He Li, Wu Shuang, et al. Simulation and optimal allocation of agricultural water resources system in Xuanhua district[J]. Journal of Hubei University of Technology, 2020, 35(1): 29-32, 37.]
[29]	张礼兵, 胡亚南, 金菊良, 等. 基于系统动力学的巢湖流域水资源承载力动态预测与调控[J]. 湖泊科学, 2021, 33(1): 242-254.
	[Zhang Libing, Hu Ya’nan, Jin Juliang, et al. Dynamic prediction of water resources carrying capacity of Chaohu Basin and system optimization regulation based on system dynamics simulation[J]. Lake Sciences, 2021, 33(1): 242-254.]
[30]	李经伟, 张文丽. 露天煤矿用水合理性与节水潜力分析[J]. 海河水利, 2016(1): 9-11.
	[Li Jingwei, Zhang Wenli. Analysis of hydration rationality and water saving potential of surface coal mine[J]. Haihe Water Resources, 2016(1): 9-11.]
[31]	吴卫宾, 韩锦辉, 杨天通, 等. 基于SD双要素模型的长春市水资源人口承载力动态模拟[J]. 郑州大学学报(理学版), 2017, 49(4): 126-131.
	[Wu Weibin, Han Jinhui, Yang Tiantong, et al. Dynamic simulation of population carrying capacity of urban water resource of Changchun based on system dynamics and two dimension mix model[J]. Journal of Zhengzhou University(Naturnal Science Edition), 2017, 49(4): 126-131.]
[32]	张志君, 陈伏龙, 龙爱华, 等. 基于可拓云模型的干旱区水资源安全评价——以石河子垦区为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(4): 847-856.
	[Zhang Zhijun, Chen Fulong, Long Aihua, et al. Assessment of water resource security in an arid area based on an extension cloud model: A case study of Shihezi District[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(4): 847-856.]
[33]	刘苏英, 韩会玲. 浅谈坝上地区节水型农业模式[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2010, 8(2): 117-119, 123.
	[Liu Suying, Han Huiling. Simple analysis the model of water conservation in agriculture production at Bashang region[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2010, 8(2): 117-119, 123.]
[34]	Peng Tao, Deng Hongwei, Lin Yun, et al. Assessment on water resources carrying capacity in Karst areas by using an innovative DPESBRM concept model and cloud model[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 767: 144353. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144353

变量	单位	方程
人口	10⁴人	人口=INTEG(人口增长量,人口初始值)
人口增长量	10⁴人	人口增长量=人口×人口增长率/1000
工业产值	10⁸元	工业产值=INTEG(工业产值增长量,工业产值初始值)
工业用水量	10⁸m³	工业用水量=工业产值×单位工业产值耗水量/1000
灌溉面积	hm²	灌溉面积=INTEG(灌溉面积增长量,灌溉面积初始值)
种植业用水量	10⁸m³	种植业用水量=灌溉面积×亩均灌溉定额/1000
缺水系数	%	缺水系数=需水量/供水量×100%
水污染比	%	水污染比=污水排放量/总需水量

	可利用水量		用水量
	指标	相关性	负荷指标	比重	负荷驱动指标	相关性
	地表水资源量	0.98			人口	0.86
					农业GDP	0.91
			农业用水量	0.83	灌溉面积	0.75
					亩均灌溉用水量	0.83
					人口	0.54
指标	地下水资源量	0.86	工业用水量	0.14	工业GDP	0.52
					万元工业增加值用水量	0.51
					人口	0.86
			生活用水量	0.02	农业GDP	0.89
					人均用水定额	0.98
	其他水源供水量	0.54	生态环境用水量	0.01

地区	供水总量/10⁸ m³			需水总量/10⁸ m³			缺水系数
地区	2019年	2025年	2035年	2019年	2025年	2035年	2019年	2025年	2035年
达拉特旗	3.93	3.93	3.93	4.41	4.78	5.59	1.12	1.21	1.42
准格尔旗	1.60	1.60	1.60	1.61	1.73	2.23	1	1.08	1.39
杭锦旗	2.96	2.96	2.96	3.16	3.43	4.08	1.06	1.15	1.37
库布齐沙漠	8.39	8.39	8.39	9.18	9.94	11.90	1.09	1.18	1.41

库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用

Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 11

参考文献 34

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

情景参数	情景方案	达拉特旗		杭锦旗		准格尔旗
情景参数	情景方案	2025年	2035年	2025年	2035年	2025年	2035年
城镇生活需水定额/（L·人^-1·d^-1）		135	150	135	150	135	150
农村生活需水定额/（L·人^-1·d^-1）		60	80	60	80	60	80
滴灌普及率/%	S1	18	18	18	18	18	18
	S2	25	25	25	25	25	25
	S3	25	50	25	50	25	50
	S4	50	75	50	75	50	75

[1]	魏晋铭, 程建军, 马奔腾. 塔里木盆地西部图木舒克—昆玉沙漠公路沿线风沙环境特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(1): 135-146.
[2]	汪翔, 吕海深, 朱永华, 郭晨煜. 两种河道洪水演进方法在新疆山区的应用比较[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(8): 1240-1247.
[3]	李娟, 刘阳, 刘光琇, 程亮, 郭青云, 张威, 章高森. 鄯善库木塔格沙漠北缘细菌群落结构特征及影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(8): 1358-1368.
[4]	赵卓怡, 郝兴明. 基于Priestley-Taylor方法的中亚干旱区实际蒸散特征及归因[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(7): 1085-1093.
[5]	毛毛, 蒙仲举, 党晓宏, 赵飞燕, 王德慧, 柴享贤. 巴丹吉林沙漠东缘天然梭梭种群结构与动态特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(6): 971-978.
[6]	高君亮, 罗凤敏, 刘泓鑫, 乔靖然, 于猛, 许亚欣. 乌兰布和沙漠草方格-灌木林对土壤水分物理性质的影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(5): 737-746.
[7]	许毓哲, 林涛, 李君. 替代稳态下阜康北部荒漠生态弹性的时空格局[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(5): 808-817.
[8]	薛智暄, 张丽, 王新军, 李永康, 张冠宏, 李沛尧. 古尔班通古特沙漠SMAP土壤水分产品降尺度分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 583-593.
[9]	石建周, 刘贤德, 田青, 于澎涛, 王彦辉. 六盘山半干旱区华北落叶松林坡面土壤含水量的降雨响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 594-604.
[10]	马浩文, 王永芳, 郭恩亮. 基于GEE的翁牛特旗土地沙漠化遥感监测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(3): 504-516.
[11]	赵豫芝,杨建军. 南疆地区水资源承载力及子系统耦合协调性时空格局[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(2): 213-223.
[12]	柴会霞, 安志山, 潘加朋. 石羊河流域水文与水资源特征及其对沙漠化影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(12): 1898-1906.
[13]	贾琼, 宋孝玉, 宋淑红, 刘晓迪, 覃琳, 刘辉. 基于LMDI-SD耦合模型的关中地区水资源承载力动态预测与调控[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(12): 1918-1930.
[14]	吴万民, 刘涛, 陈鑫. 西北干旱半干旱区NDVI季节性变化及其影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(12): 1969-1981.
[15]	刘延雪, 乔长录. 干旱区绿洲膜下滴灌棉田蒸散发[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(1): 152-162.