1959—2018年秦岭南北春季气候时空变化特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.05.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1959—2018年陕西秦岭腹地32个气象站点逐日气温、降水资料和计算得出的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)，采用线性倾向评估法、ANUSPLIN空间插值法、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析法等，分析了秦岭地区春季气候时空变化特征和未来气候变化趋势。结果表明：① 1959—2018年秦岭地区春季表现为显著暖干化趋势，水热突变不同步。气温以0.33 ℃·(10a)^-1速率上升，降水量以4.90 mm·(10a)^-1速率下降，SPEI值以0.14·(10a)^-1速率下降。② 空间变化上，秦岭地区暖干化存在空间差异，呈“北部快、南部慢”变化格局。有99.65%的像元显示气温呈显著上升趋势，64.46%的像元显示降水量呈显著下降趋势，75.28%的像元显示SPEI值呈显著下降趋势。对春季气候变化响应敏感区位于北部的宝鸡、周至、户县、长安和南部的太白、柞水、镇安。③ 1994—2008年干旱发生频率较高、干旱程度较重，2009年后干旱发生频率和程度有所减轻，干旱发生频率为“北部高、南部低，西部高、东部低”的空间分布格局。未来秦岭地区春季气候将持续表现为暖干化趋势。

关键词: 春季, 气温, 降水, 气候变化, 时空差异, 秦岭, 陕西

Abstract: In this paper, the characteristics of climate change and future climate trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring were studied and predicted by using the linearity estimation, ANUSPLIN spatial interpolation method, Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis based on the data of daily temperature and precipitation and the calculated SPEI data from 32 meteorological stations in the study area from 1959 to 2018. The results showed that: ① There was a significant warming-drying trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring during the period of 1959-2018, and the fluctuation was not synchronized. The temperature increase rate in the study area in spring was 0.33 °C·(10a)^-1, and the precipitation descending rate in the same season was 4.90 mm·(10a)^-1. The SPEI value in the Qinling area in spring was in a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 0.14·(10a)^-1; ② There was a spatial difference of the warming-drying trend in the Qinling Mountains, and the change was fast in the north but slow in the south. The temperature was in a significant increase trend in 99.65% pixels, the precipitation was in a significant decrease trend in 64.46% pixels, and the SPEI value was in a significant downward trend in 75.28% pixels. The areas sensitive to the climate change in spring were located in Baoji, Zhouzhi, Huxian and Chang’an in the north and Taibai, Zhashui and Zhen'an in the sourth; ③ The occurring frequency of drought was high and its level was serious during the period of 1994-2008, but the situation was alleviated after 2009. The occurring frequency of drought was high in the north and west, and low in the south and east. Such warming-drying climate trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring would continue in the future.

Key words: spring')">

spring, temperature, precipitation, climate change, spatiotemporal difference, Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi

齐贵增, 白红英, 孟清, 赵婷, 郭少壮.

1959—2018年秦岭南北春季气候时空变化特征 [J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(5): 1079-1091.

QI Gui-zeng, BAI Hong-ying, MENG Qing, ZHAO Ting, GUO Shao-zhuang.

Climate Change in the Qinling Mountains in Spring during 1959-2018 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(5): 1079-1091.

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