干旱区研究

干旱区研究

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

1957—2015年中国低能见度日数时空变化特征

孔 锋1,2,3,4，方佳毅2,3,4，李双双5，方 建6，吕丽莉1，史培军2,3,4，郭建平7   

  1. (1.民政部/教育部 减灾与应急管理研究院，北京 100875；2中国气象局 发展研究中心，北京 100081；3.北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875；4.北京师范大学 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875；5. 陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院，西安 710119；6.武汉大学 资源与环境科学学院，武汉 430079；7.中国气象科学研究院 大气成分研究所，北京 100081)
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-15 修回日期:2017-03-06 出版日期:2017-11-15 发布日期:2017-12-20
  • 作者简介:孔锋（1986-），男，博士，工程师，主要研究方向为自然灾害与环境演变.
  • 基金资助:

    气象软科学重点项目（2017〔21〕）；气象软科学自主项目（2017〔35〕和2017〔36〕）共同资助

Spatio temporal Variation of the Days of Low Visibility in China during the Period from 1957 to 2015

KONG Feng1,2,3,4  FANG Jiayi2,3,4  LI Shuangshuang5  FANG Jian6  LU Lili1  SHI Peijun2,3,4  GUO JianPing7   

  1. (1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2 Research Centre for Strategic Development, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100875, China; 3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; 4 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 5 College of Tourism and Environment, Shannxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; 6 School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 7 Institute of Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Received:2016-12-15 Revised:2017-03-06 Online:2017-11-15 Published:2017-12-20

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摘要： 利用中国气象局国家气象中心提供的1957—2015年全国753个观测站数据资料，探究中国年代际不同等级能见度日数时空变化。结果表明：能见度1级和2级日数在“胡焕庸线”以东地区呈现出显著的下降趋势；0级日数在“胡焕庸线”以东地区呈增减相间趋势，以西地区以增加趋势为主；能见度3、4级和5级日数在绝大多数站点变化趋势不显著，只有少数站点呈现下降趋势；随着能见度等级升高，日数呈下降趋势的站点越来越少。年代际年均低能见度日数，在时间上呈上升趋势，全年四季都有发生，在绝对数量上冬季增加最多，夏季最少，但从四季占全年的比例来看夏秋季节呈增加趋势。在空间上表现出从农牧交错带东侧边缘向东南沿海地区逐渐扩张的趋势，并且在四季都有不同程度的反映，冬季最为显著，夏季最不明显。在时间相关分析上，中国低能见度日数与能源生产总量、汽车拥有量、城市化率、国内生产总值和第二产业具有很高的正相关，而与平均风速有很高的负相关，且均通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。在空间相关分析上，随年代推移中国县级人口密度与低能见度日数具有很高的空间正相关，而与平均风速有很高的空间负相关，且均通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。因此，快速城镇化和工业化进程以及平均风速的减小可能是中国低能见度日数显著增加的主因。

关键词: 低能见度, 时空格局, 城市化, 工业化, 风速, 季节变化, 中国

Abstract: Visibility reduction is an important feature of air pollution,which has its own distinct characteristics. There are significant differences in visibility among different cities. The meteorological data observed by 753 stations during the period of 1957-2015 and provided by National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration were used to diagnose the spatiotemporal variation of visibility at different levels in China. Results showed that the days of visibility at level 1 and level 2 in the east of “Hu Huanyong Line” were in a significant decrease trend,those at level 0 in the same region were in an increase or a decrease trend,and the increase trend was dominant in the west; the change trend of days of visibility at level 3,4 and 5 was not significant at the most stations,and there was a decrease trend at a few stations. With the increase of visibility level,the stations with the decrease of days of visibility became less and less. The annual days of low visibility were on the rise. Temporally,the days of low visibility were on the rise and occurred in all seasons,and absolutely,their increase was the highest in winter but the lowest in summer,and their proportion was in an increase in summer and autumn. Spatially,the days of low visibility were increased from the east edge of croppingnomadic ecotone to the southeast coastal area,especially in winter,and the increase trend was not significant in summer. The time series correlation analysis revealed that there was a positive correlation between the days of low visibility in China and the total energy production,car ownership,urbanization rate,gross domestic product (GDP) and the second industry,which passed the test of 0.01 significance level. The spatial correlation analysis revealed that there was a high spatially negative correlation between the days of low visibility and the countylevel population density and average wind speed,which passed the test of 0.01 significance level. Therefore,the rapid urbanization and industrialization as well as the decrease of average wind speed may be the main causes of the significant increase of days of low visibility in China.

Key words: low visibility, spatiotemporal pattern, urbanization, industrialization, wind speed, seasonal variation, China