基于改进相对资源承载力模型的天山北坡可持续发展研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 某一区域人口可持续发展的重要保障在于这一区域的自然资源及经济资源禀赋条件,特定区域人口和经济的双重合理布局是可持续发展的基础。利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000—2010年天山北坡的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨天山北坡各县市相对资源承载力的时空演变及差异特征。研究表明:① 以新疆为参照区,近10 a来天山北坡处于人口非常富余、经济超载或严重超载阶段。② 与全疆相比,水资源是天山北坡的优势资源,土地资源是制约天山北坡人口、经济发展的劣势资源。③ 以天山北坡为参照区,相对资源人口承载力非常富余度最大的是克拉玛依市,超载最严重的是博乐市;相对资源经济承载力超载最严重的是克拉玛依市,非常富余度最大的是奇台县。④ 依据相对资源人口、经济承载力的超载或富余状态,将天山北坡各县市归为4类资源承载力匹配区。

关键词: 相对资源, 人口, 承载力, 可持续发展, 天山北坡, 新疆

Abstract: Endowment of natural and economic resources is not only an important guarantee of regional population growth, but also the basis of sustainable development. Based on the improved model of carrying capacity related to resources, in this study the values of population carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity related to resources in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains during the period from 2000 to 2010 were calculated. The spatiotemporal evolution and difference of these two carrying capacities in 14 counties and cities were investigated. The results were as follows: ① Compared with the situation in whole Xinjiang, the population growth was high and there was an overload or serious overload of economy related to resources in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in recent decade; ② Compared with the situation in whole Xinjiang, water resources were advantageous to sustainable development in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, but land resources were disadvantageous to restrict population growth and economic development; ③Compared with the situation in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the surplus degree of population carrying capacity related to resources was the highest in Karamay City, and the overload was the most serious in Bole City; the overload of economic carrying capacity related to resources was the most serious in Karamay City, and the surplus degree was the highest in Qitai County; ④ According to the overload status or surplus degree of population carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity related to resources in the 14 counties and cities, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was classified into four matching modes.

Key words: relative resource, population, carrying capacity, sustainable development, northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

汪菲, 杨德刚, 王长建, 张豫芳, 唐宏, 尹晶晶. 基于改进相对资源承载力模型的天山北坡可持续发展研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(6): 1073-1080.

WANG Fei, YANG De-gang, WANG Chang-jian, ZHANG Yu-fang, TANG Hong, YIN Jing-jing. Sustainable Development in Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains Based on Improved Model of Carrying Capacity Related to Resources[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(6): 1073-1080.

参考文献

[1] 黄宁生,匡耀求.广东相对资源承载力与可持续发展问题[J]. 经济地理,2000,20(2):52-56.
[Huang Ningsheng,Kuang Yaoqiu.The carrying capacity of resources and the problems of sustainable development in Guangdong Province[J]. Economic Geography,2000,20(2):52-56.]
[2] 朱永华,任立良,夏军,等.缺水流域生态承载力研究进展[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(6):990-997.
[Zhu Yonghua,Ren Liliang,Xia Jun,et al.Advances in study on eco-environmental carrying capacity in the drainage Basins with shortage of water resources[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(6):990-997.]
[3] 李泽红,董锁成,汤尚颖.相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析[J]. 资源科学,2008,30(9):1 336-1 342.
[Li Zehong,Dong Suocheng,Tang Shangying.Model modification and empirical analysis of the relative carrying capacity of resources[J]. Resources Science,2008,30(9):1 336-1 342.]
[4] 刘兆德,马传栋.基于相对资源承载力的山东省区域可持续发展研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(5):52-56.
[Liu Zhaode,Ma Chuandong.Study on the base of relative carrying capacity of resources and problems of sustainable development in Shandong Province[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2006,16(5):52-56.]
[5] 孙慧.基于相对资源承载力新疆可持续发展研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(5):53-57.
[Sun Hui.Sustainable development study in Xinjiang based on relative carrying capacity of resources[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2009,19(5):53-57.]
[6] 谢红霞,任志远,莫宏伟.陕西省20 a相对资源承载力时空动态分析[J]. 干旱区研究,2005,22(1):130-134.
[Xie Hongxia,Ren Zhiyuan,Mo Hongwei.Analysis on the temporal and spatial dynamics of the relative carrying capacity of resources in Shanxi Province[J]. Arid Zone Research,2005,22(1):130-134.]
[7] 王传武.济宁市相对资源承载力与可持续发展[J]. 地理科学进展,2009,28(3):460-464.
[Wang Chuanwu.Relative carrying capacity of resources and problems of sustainable development in Jining City of Shandong[J]. Progress in Geography,2009,28(3):460-464.]
[8] 阚先学,韩秀兰,罗剑朝.山西省相对资源承载力与可持续发展研究[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2007,7(6):102-107.
[Kan Xianxue,Han Xiulan,Luo Jianchao.Relative carrying capacity of resources and problems in sustainable development of Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Northwest A & F University:Social Science Edition,2007,7(6):102-107.]
[9] 陆田.长三角地区相对资源承载力与可持续发展研究[J]. 扬州职业大学学报,2007,11(4):1-5.
[Lu Tian.Research into the relatively resources-bearing capacity and sustainable development of Yangtze Delta[J]. Journal of Yangzhou Polytechnic College,2007,11(4):1-5.]
[10] 黄常锋,何伦志.相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析[J]. 资源科学,2011,33(1):41-49.
[Huang Changfeng,He Lunzhi.Model modifications and empirical analysis of the relative carrying capacity of resources[J]. Resources Science,2011,33(1):41-49.]
[11] 焦士兴,李勇,李静,等.河南省相对资源承载力区域差异分析[J]. 华东经济管理,2008,22(12):39-41.
[Jiao Shixing,Li Yong,Li Jing,et al.Analysis of the regional differences on relative resources carrying capacity in Henan Province[J]. China Economic Management,2008,22(12):39-41.]
[12] 王长建,张小雷,杜宏茹,等.开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平的综合评价与分析[J]. 冰川冻土,2012,34(2):990-998.
[Wang Changjian,Zhang Xiaolei,Du Hongru,et al.Comprehensive evaluation and analysis on the water resources carrying capacity levels in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(2):990-998.]
[13] 周文鑫,何隆华.武汉城市圈相对资源承载力分析[J]. 国土资源科技管理,2010,27(5):101-107.
[Zhou Wenxin,He Longhua.Analysis of relative carrying capacity of resources in Wuhan city circle[J]. Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2010,27(5):101-107.]
[14] 李丽娟,张勃.甘肃省各地区相对资源承载力及可持续发展研究[J]. 冰川冻土,2011,33(5):1 169-1 175.
[Li Lijuan,Zhang Bo.Study on relative resources carrying capacities and sustainable development for different municipalities of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(5):1 169-1 175.]
[15] 赵勇,杨青,马玉芬.新疆北部地区春夏季干旱的区域性和持续性特征[J]. 干旱区研究,2012,29(3):427-478.
[Zhao Yong,Yang Qing,Ma Yufeng.Analysis on features of regional and continuous drought in north Xinjiang in spring and summer[J]. Arid Zone Research,2012,29(3):427-478.]
[16] 董雯,杨宇,张小雷,等.天山北坡绿洲城镇用地扩展及其驱动力分析[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(6):980-985.
[Dong Wen,Yang Yu,Zhang Xiaolei,et al.Study on expansion of land for urban construction and its driving forces in oases in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(6):980-985.]
[17] 杜宏茹,李雪梅,王长建.新疆能矿资源型产业发展及其区域效应研究[J]. 干旱区研究,2011,28(2):363-369.
[Du Hongru,Li Xuemei,Wang Changjian.Study on development and regional effects of the energy and mineral resources sectors in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research,2011,28(2):363-369.]