关键词: 春季, 融雪期, 0 ℃层高度, 径流量, 乌鲁木齐河

Abstract: Change of the 0 ℃ layer height may reflect the circumfluence change of cold air mass and warm air mass in the high altitude. So the 0 ℃ layer height is an effective index, which can be used to reflect air temperature change ahead of schedule in the work of weather forecast. Generally, the change of 0 ℃ layer height is always ahead of the change of the near ground air temperature. Therefore, we think the 0 ℃ layer height is more effective than near ground air temperature in the forecast of the springtime flood. On the basis of collected data of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and 0 ℃ layer height in spring season, in this paper the relationship between 0 ℃ layer height changes and the average daily streamflow of Urumqi River in spring snowmelt period was analyzed using statistical methods. Standardization of the original data was conducted before the statistical analysis. It is found that there were better linear relationship between the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and the 0 ℃ layer height at 08 am and 20 pm. The change of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River was lagging behind the change of the 0 ℃ layer height. The correlation coefficients between the time series of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and the 0 ℃ layer height for the years from 2003 to 2006 were significant with a confidence level of 95%, except for the year of 2002. Finally, the best regression models were gained by using the time series of the 0 ℃ layer height and the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River which were obviously correlated. The regression models can be used to forecast the snowmelt run off and snowmelt flood of the Urumqi River.

Key words: The period of spring snowmelt, the height of 0 ℃ layer, streamflow, the Urumqi River