疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.23

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 1588-1597.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.23

疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析

贾玲¹(),张百祖²,牛最荣¹(),孙栋元¹,孙凯悦¹,王鲁军¹

1.甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃兰州 730070
2.甘肃省酒泉水文站,甘肃嘉峪关 735100

收稿日期:2022-01-26 修回日期:2022-06-14 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-10-25
通讯作者: 牛最荣
作者简介:贾玲（1998-）,女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学与水资源. E-mail: 799456567@qq.com
基金资助:
甘肃省重点研发计划项目：引大灌区智慧灌溉信息监控综合处理系统研究与示范应用(21YF5FA094);甘肃省水利厅水资源研究项目：甘肃省地热水水资源管理与保护关键技术研究(GSAU-JSZX-2020-1205);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划项目：气候变化对疏勒河上游产流影响及未来演变趋势预测分析(GSAU-JSYF-2021-016)

Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River

JIA Ling¹(),ZHANG Baizu²,NIU Zuirong¹(),SUN Dongyuan¹,SUN Kaiyue¹,WNAG Lujun¹

1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. Jiuquan Hydrological Station of Gansu Province, Jiayuguan 735100, Gansu, China

Received:2022-01-26 Revised:2022-06-14 Online:2022-09-15 Published:2022-10-25
Contact: Zuirong NIU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用1956—2020年疏勒河上游昌马堡水文站逐月径流量资料,选取基尼系数、洛伦兹不对称系数等8个径流年内分配特征指标,结合M-K检验、R/S分析等多种统计方法,从年内、年际综合分析疏勒河上游径流演变规律。结果表明：（1）疏勒河上游径流量年内分配呈单峰型分布,主要集中在汛期,除绝对变化幅度（ΔR）外,其余年内分配指标均呈下降趋势,表明年内分配逐渐趋向均匀;（2）年径流量总体呈增加趋势,尤其在1997年发生突变后,倾向率加大,年径流量平均值较突变前增加59%;（3）春、夏、秋、冬四季径流量总体均呈上升趋势,其中夏季倾向率最大,冬季倾向率最小;20世纪90年代发生突变后,径流量平均值较突变前均明显增加,变化幅度排序为：秋季（76%）>冬季（74%）>夏季（58%）>春季（45%）;（4）疏勒河上游年和四季径流量均具有多时间特征尺度周期,且第一主周期均为56 a;（5）对2022—2024年径流量预测显示,疏勒河上游径流量在未来3 a将继续呈上升趋势。研究结果为准确掌握疏勒河上游径流变化规律及特性提供了科学依据,对疏勒河流域水资源的可持续开发利用以及研究相似内陆河流域径流变化规律具有指导意义。

关键词: 径流年内分配, 年际变化, 径流量预测, 疏勒河上游

Abstract:

A quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K test、R/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (C_v), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (C_m) decreased respectively at the rate of -1.053·(10a)^-1, -0.015·(10a)^-1, -0.009·(10a)^-1,-0.643·(10a)^-1, complete adjustment coefficient (C_r), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (C_n) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)^-1. The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.

Key words: runoff seasonal distribution, inter-annual variation, runoff forecast, upper reaches of the Shule River

贾玲,张百祖,牛最荣,孙栋元,孙凯悦,王鲁军. 疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1588-1597.

JIA Ling,ZHANG Baizu,NIU Zuirong,SUN Dongyuan,SUN Kaiyue,WNAG Lujun. Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1588-1597.

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时段	径流量 /10⁸m³	春季（3—5月）		夏季（6—8月）		秋季（9—11月）		冬季（12月—次年2月）
时段	径流量 /10⁸m³	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%
1950s	7.37	0.84	11.41	4.63	62.91	1.36	18.43	0.53	7.25
1960s	8.03	1.24	15.48	4.79	59.60	1.41	17.60	0.59	7.32
1970s	8.92	1.27	14.22	5.23	58.61	1.71	19.14	0.72	8.04
1980s	9.22	1.38	15.00	5.41	58.68	1.66	18.02	0.76	8.29
1990s	8.92	1.23	13.83	5.27	59.08	1.68	18.83	0.74	8.26
2000s	12.72	1.80	14.14	7.19	56.50	2.59	20.39	1.14	8.97
2010s	14.87	1.78	11.94	8.84	59.47	3.00	20.18	1.25	8.41
多年平均值	10.28	1.42	13.82	6.03	58.64	1.98	19.26	0.85	8.28

统计值	C_v	C_r	C_n	D	GI	S	C_m	ΔR
倾向率/（10a）^-1	-0.015	-0.006	-0.006	-1.053	-0.009	-0.006	-0.643	0.255
最大值	1.27	0.66	0.66	276.48	0.49	1.09	32.20	5.66
最大值出现年份	1976	1976	1958	1987	1991	1975	1958	2016
最小值	0.68	0.26	0.39	181.23	0.29	0.72	6.81	0.70
最小值出现年份	1973	1984	2003	1969	2020	2019	1973	1956
平均值	0.93	0.36	0.52	197.42	0.39	0.84	12.16	2.54

1956—2020年径流序列		年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
持续性分析	Hurst指数	0.8279	0.8127	0.7353	0.8155	0.9422
持续性分析	拟合R²	0.8252	0.9690	0.6802	0.8846	0.9738
突变性分析	突变年份	1997	1999	1998	1997	1999

1956—2020年径流序列	统计特征		趋势检验			突变点前		突变点后
1956—2020年径流序列	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数	倾向率	M-K检验值	显著性	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数
年	10.28	0.31	1.21	6.0633	是	8.50	0.21	13.54	0.18
春季	1.42	0.26	0.14	5.8482	是	1.24	0.18	1.80	0.20
夏季	6.03	0.34	0.66	5.0386	是	5.04	0.27	7.96	0.22
秋季	1.98	0.40	0.29	5.7463	是	1.56	0.28	2.75	0.25
冬季	0.85	0.33	0.13	7.6825	是	0.69	0.18	1.20	0.14

年份	实测值 /10⁸m³	灰色预测模型		R/S灰色预测模型		ARIMA模型		综合预测值 /10⁸m³	综合相对误差/%
年份	实测值 /10⁸m³	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	综合预测值 /10⁸m³	综合相对误差/%
2019	16.91	13.92	-17.69	16.28	-3.69	15.73	-6.96	15.31	-9.46
2020	12.25	14.04	14.59	16.81	37.23	15.88	29.61	15.58	27.18
2021	14.03	14.16	0.89	17.06	21.57	16.02	14.16	15.75	12.26
2022		14.33		16.89		15.26		15.49
2023		14.45		16.74		15.39		15.53
2024		14.57		16.94		15.51		15.67
平均相对误差/%			11.06		20.83		16.91		16.30

疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析

Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River

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1956—2020年径流序列	第一主周期	第二主周期	第三主周期
年	56 a	28 a	10 a
春季	56 a	28 a	20 a
夏季	56 a	28 a	9 a
秋季	56 a	13 a	-
冬季	56 a	-	-

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