• 水土资源 •

### 疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析

1. 1.甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
2.甘肃省酒泉水文站,甘肃 嘉峪关 735100
• 收稿日期:2022-01-26 修回日期:2022-06-14 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-10-25
• 通讯作者: 牛最荣
• 作者简介:贾玲（1998-）,女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学与水资源. E-mail: 799456567@qq.com
• 基金资助:
甘肃省重点研发计划项目：引大灌区智慧灌溉信息监控综合处理系统研究与示范应用(21YF5FA094);甘肃省水利厅水资源研究项目：甘肃省地热水水资源管理与保护关键技术研究(GSAU-JSZX-2020-1205);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划项目：气候变化对疏勒河上游产流影响及未来演变趋势预测分析(GSAU-JSYF-2021-016)

### Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River

JIA Ling1(),ZHANG Baizu2,NIU Zuirong1(),SUN Dongyuan1,SUN Kaiyue1,WNAG Lujun1

1. 1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. Jiuquan Hydrological Station of Gansu Province, Jiayuguan 735100, Gansu, China
• Received:2022-01-26 Revised:2022-06-14 Online:2022-09-15 Published:2022-10-25
• Contact: Zuirong NIU

Abstract:

A quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K test、R/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (Cv), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (Cm) decreased respectively at the rate of -1.053·(10a)-1, -0.015·(10a)-1, -0.009·(10a)-1,-0.643·(10a)-1, complete adjustment coefficient (Cr), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (Cn) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)-1. The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.