黄河上游河源区不同量级降水对径流变化的影响

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2019年黄河上游河源区13个气象观测站逐日地面降水和唐乃亥水文站径流量数据,采用统计分析方法分析黄河上游河源区不同量级降水对径流变化的影响,研究表明：（1）黄河上游河源区1961—2019年降水量变化率为7.57 mm·(10a)^-1。尤其是进入21世纪,黄河上游河源区气候暖湿化加快,降水量呈显著性增加趋势;（2） 1961—2000年黄河上游河源区各地年总降水量、≥5.0 mm、≥10.0 mm、≥25.0 mm的降水量呈微弱增加趋势,而2001—2019年呈显著增加趋势,分别增加5.1%、6.9%、7.4%、15.0%;（3） 1961—2019年黄河上游河源区≥5.0 mm、≥10.0 mm、≥25.0 mm降水贡献率分别为71%、43%、7%,呈增加趋势,2001—2019年比1961—2000年降水量贡献率分别增加了1.5%、1.2%、0.8%;（4）年降水量与年径流量变化成显著正相关,年总降水量、≥5 mm、≥10 mm和≥25 mm年降水量与年径流量也成显著正相关,是年径流量增加（减少）的主要气候因子。

关键词: 气候变暖, 黄河上游河源区, 不同量级降水, 径流量

Abstract:

Daily surface precipitation data from 13 meteorological observation stations in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches from 1961 to 2019 and runoff data from Tangnaihai hydrological station were used to study the influence of different precipitation magnitudes on runoff changes in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. This research showed that: (1) the precipitation change rate in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches from 1961 to 2019 was 7.57 mm·(10a)^-1. Especially in the 21st century, climate warming and humidification in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches have accelerated, and precipitation has shown a significant increase. (2) The annual total precipitation, precipitation more than 5.0 mm, more than 10.0 mm and more than 25.0 mm in the upper reaches of the Yellow River showed a slight increasing trend from 1961 to 2000, while the annual precipitation increased by 5.1%, 6.9%, 7.4% and 15.0% from 2001 to 2019, respectively. (3) From 1961 to 2019, the contribution rates of more than 5.0 mm, more than 10.0 mm and more than 25.0 mm in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were 71%, 43% and 7%, respectively, showing an increasing trend. Compared with 1961-2000, the contribution rates of precipitation from 2001 to 2019 increased by 1.5%, 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. (4) Annual precipitation is significantly positively correlated with annual runoff, annual total precipitation, annual precipitation more than 5 mm, annual precipitation more than 10 mm and annual precipitation more than 25 mm are also significantly positively correlated with annual runoff, which are the main climatic factors for the increase (decrease) of annual runoff.

Key words: climate warming, the headwater region of the upper Yellow River, different precipitation magnitude, runoff

保广裕,乜虹,戴升,燕振宁,杨春华,代青措. 黄河上游河源区不同量级降水对径流变化的影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3): 704-713.

BAO Guangyu,NIE Hong,DAI Sheng,YAN Zhengning,YANG Chunhua,DAI Qingcuo. Research on effects of different precipitation magnitudes on runoff changes in the headwater region of the upper Yellow River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 704-713.

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降水量级	说明
年降水量（≥0.1 mm降水量）	年内有效降水≥0.1 mm的累计值
≥5.0 mm降水量	年内≥5.0 mm降水累计值
≥10.0 mm降水量	年内≥10.0 mm降水累计值
≥25.0 mm降水量	年内≥25.0 mm降水累计值

气象站点	降水量/mm		距平/%	倾向率/[mm·(10a)^-1]	显著性	显著性检验
气象站点	1961—2000年	2001—2019年	距平/%	倾向率/[mm·(10a)^-1]	显著性	显著性检验
兴海	352.9	422.4	16.45	16.42	0.359	0.01
同德	423.7	487.2	13.03	13.17	0.251	0.05
泽库	468.3	525.2	10.83	13.93	0.301	0.01
玛多	311.8	360.7	13.55	16.21	0.416	0.01
玛沁	510.1	540.6	5.64	6.26	0.144	-
甘德	525.3	550.2	4.53	12.66	0.227	0.05
达日	547.6	584.1	6.25	9.24	0.218	0.05
河南	585.0	588.9	0.66	8.54	0.108	-
久治	747.5	758.1	1.39	0.82	0.014	-
班玛	666.6	654.2	-1.90	3.06	0.064	-
玛曲	598.9	624.7	4.13	2.74	0.049	-
若尔盖	651.7	662.7	1.66	1.67	0.029	-
红原	758.5	762.7	0.5	5.94	0.097	-
黄河源区	548.8	578.6	5.1	7.57	0.209	-

气象站点	1961—2019年						2001—2019年
	≥5.0 mm		≥10.0 mm		≥25.0 mm		≥5.0 mm		≥10.0 mm		≥25.0 mm
	倾向率	显著性	倾向率	显著性	倾向率	显著性	倾向率	显著性	倾向率	显著性	倾向率	显著性
兴海	16.10	0.37^***	12.50	0.36^***	7.18	0.39^***	44.86	0.30	36.35	0.29	11.92	0.15
同德	12.90	0.25^**	11.42	0.28^**	3.68	0.18	113.05	0.61^***	85.42	0.53^**	23.37	0.26
泽库	13.14	0.29^**	11.89	0.30^**	4.50	0.29^**	20.57	0.17	16.71	0.15	8.21	0.17
玛多	11.42	0.34^***	3.89	0.15	1.09	0.10	34.12	0.36	21.75	0.31	13.51	0.33
玛沁	5.28	0.13	0.10	0.00	-1.10	-0.06	37.76	0.28	5.32	0.04	9.40	0.15
甘德	11.23	0.22^*	5.92	0.13	0.98	0.06	35.86	0.31	8.25	0.08	1.55	0.04
达日	6.89	0.16	2.16	0.06	-1.20	-0.07	40.41	0.35	2.85	0.03	-1.13	-0.03
河南	8.46	0.11	0.23	0.00	9.95	0.24^*	33.06	0.20	9.11	0.05	18.67	0.19
久治	-2.80	-0.05	-7.51	-0.13	-7.37	-0.27^**	65.09	0.39^*	57.18	0.41^*	-1.82	-0.03
班玛	1.80	0.04	0.71	0.02	1.26	0.06	59.79	0.43^*	45.01	0.34	33.24	0.52^**
玛曲	2.51	0.05	5.90	0.11	3.65	0.10	20.78	0.15	-1.02	-0.01	-0.38	0.00
若尔盖	1.27	0.02	-0.98	-0.02	1.03	0.03	66.74	0.37^*	35.69	0.20	11.60	0.11
红原	11.27	0.18	8.06	0.14	3.25	0.12	118.41	0.58^***	102.35	0.54^**	12.87	0.13
黄河源区	6.22	0.19	3.59	0.14	1.11	0.12	53.12	0.56^***	32.69	0.45^**	10.85	0.33

气象站点	≥0.1 mm			≥5.0 mm			≥10.0 mm			≥25.0 mm
气象站点	A	B	T/%	A	B	T/%	A	B	T/%	A	B	T/%
兴海	352.9	422.4	16.5	240.1	307.9	22.0	131.2	183.3	28.4	11.1	38.4	71.2
同德	423.7	487.2	13.0	300.9	361.4	16.7	175.2	224.0	21.8	22.5	36.1	37.6
泽库	468.3	525.2	10.8	330.8	388.8	14.9	198.5	248.0	20.0	30.6	42.5	28.1
玛多	311.8	360.7	13.5	177.4	215.8	17.8	89.5	108.9	17.8	5.8	11.1	47.3
玛沁	510.1	540.6	5.6	352.8	385.1	8.4	204.5	211.5	3.3	29.2	28.3	-3.3
甘德	524.3	550.2	4.7	338.5	366.2	7.5	184.2	202.7	9.1	18.2	17.0	-7.3
达日	547.6	584.1	6.2	368.9	399.7	7.7	212.1	217.4	2.4	24.5	24.8	1.4
河南	554.9	588.9	5.8	400.8	436.1	8.1	262.4	275.7	4.8	43.0	64.2	33.0
久治	753.1	758.1	0.7	560.1	557.9	-0.4	345.6	336.3	-2.8	58.2	44.7	-30.1
班玛	666.6	654.2	-1.9	484.4	473.6	-2.3	294.8	279.1	-5.6	33.2	36.1	8.3
玛曲	598.9	624.7	4.1	433.0	459.8	5.8	272.7	313.6	13.0	61.4	83.7	26.6
若尔盖	651.7	662.7	1.7	483.7	502.4	3.7	328.4	341.8	3.9	83.9	91.3	8.2
红原	758.5	762.7	0.5	566.7	588.2	3.7	359.6	375.7	4.3	65.9	76.6	13.9
黄河源区	548.8	578.6	5.1	389.6	418.7	6.9	236.4	255.2	7.4	38.9	45.8	15.0

	≥5.0 mm		≥10.0 mm		≥25.0 mm
	贡献率	相关系数	贡献率	相关系数	贡献率	相关系数
兴海	69	0.260^**	38	0.245^*	5	0.330^***
同德	71	0.164	42	0.190	5	0.113
泽库	71	0.212^*	43	0.260^**	7	0.219^*
玛多	57	0.201	28	-0.008	2	0.095
玛沁	69	0.057	39	-0.122	5	-0.132
甘德	65	0.189	35	0.066	3	0.030
达日	67	0.067	38	0.019	4	-0.088
河南	73	0.091	46	-0.113	9	0.207
久治	74	-0.145	45	-0.198	7	-0.285^**
班玛	72	-0.015	43	-0.018	5	0.024
玛曲	72	0.042	46	0.143	11	0.128
若尔盖	74	0.011	50	-0.066	12	0.023
红原	75	0.337^***	47	0.165	9	0.103
黄河河源	71	0.109	43	0.046	7	0.067