陕西省退耕还林工程对植被恢复的效应 ——基于PCSE修正的面板数据模型

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2018.06.26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1998—2013年的SPOT_VEG NDVI数据,利用像元二分法和面板校正标准误(PCSE)估计方法,分析陕西省植被覆盖时空变化特征以及退耕还林工程、降雨水平等自然、社会经济因素对植被覆盖变化的相对贡献,探究退耕还林工程对植被恢复的驱动效应。结果表明:① 陕西省植被覆盖总体呈增加趋势,1998—2013年年均归一化植被指数(NDVI)值增长0.98%,且在退耕还林工程实施阶段(1998—2009年),植被恢复效果更为明显。② 陕西省植被恢复效果空间分异显著,16 a间,各地区NDVI值上升幅度不同,40.61%的区域提升约0.1,29.05%的区域提升约0.2,23.69%的区域提升0.25以上。其中,位于陕北退耕还林区的延安市植被恢复效果最为明显,NDVI年增长约为1.12%。③ 退耕还林工程对植被恢复影响显著,退耕还林面积占土地总面积每提升1%将使NDVI值增加1.97%,相当于降水量增加了4.29%,这对于降水量少且不均的陕西省生态环境建设具有重要参考意义。

关键词: 退耕还林工程, 植被恢复, NDVI, 面板校正标准误(PCSE), 陕西

Abstract: In this paper,the temporal and spatial variations of vegetation cover in Shaanxi Province were analyzed.The purposes of this study were to explore the driving effect of the Grain for Green Project on vegetation regeneration,and the relative contributions of some natural and socio-economic factors (such as the Grain for Green Project and rainfall level) to vegetation cover change were estimated based on the SPOT_VEG NDVI data during the period from 1998 to 2013 by using the pixel dichotomy method and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE).The result showed that the vegetation coverage in Shaanxi Province was holistically improved,the annual average NDVI value was increased by 0.98% from 1998 to 2013,and the effect of vegetation regeneration was obvious by implementing the Grain for Green Project from 1998 to 2009.The spatial difference of vegetation regeneration effect in the province was significant.During the 16 years,the NDVI in the province increased with different rates,it was increased by 0.1 in 40.61% area,by 0.2 in 29.05% area,and by 0.25 in 23.69% area.In which the most evident effect of the project on vegetation regeneration occurred in Yan’an City located in north Shaanxi Province,where the NDVI was increased by 1.12%.The NDVI was increased by 1.97% if the Grain for Green Project was implemented in 1% area of the total,which was equivalent to increasing 4.29% precipitation.The results of this study are of great significance for reconstructing the ecological environment in the study area.

Key words: Grain for Green Project, vegetation regeneration, NDVI, PCSE, Shaanxi Province

成佩昆, 胡守庚, 孙涛, 陈海滨. 陕西省退耕还林工程对植被恢复的效应 ——基于PCSE修正的面板数据模型[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(6): 1477-1486.

CHENG Pei-kun, HU Shou-geng, SUN Tao, CHEN Hai-bin. Effect of Grain for Green Project on Vegetation Regeneration in Shaanxi Province:Based on PCSE Panel Data Model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018, 35(6): 1477-1486.

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