1981—2020年新疆冬季区域极端低温事件的多时间尺度环流特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代全球气候再分析数据（ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation，ERA5）逐日最低气温遴选了1981—2020年新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件，运用美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction，NCEP）的再分析资料分析了其多时间尺度环流特征。结果表明：（1） 1981—2020年共出现30次新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件，其中12月持续21 d以上的事件频次最高，持续时间最长。（2）极端低温事件的平均气温、峰值日平均气温的偏低幅度与持续时间密切相关，持续时间越长，气温偏低幅度越大，其所在月（季）平均气温偏低幅度就越大。（3）持续8~10 d和11 d以上的新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件分别在超前3 d和6 d时典型环流逐渐形成。持续11 d以上的极端低温事件在1月和2月出现时，北半球中高纬度表现为典型的北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation，AO）负位相。持续21 d以上的新疆冬季区域性极端低温事件出现时，北太平洋上空的500 hPa正位势高度距平中心较强，北半球中高纬度槽脊相对稳定。发展至强盛时，北太平洋上空的500 hPa正位势高度距平强大且稳定，能形成冷空气持续影响的形势。本研究可为冬季区域性极端低温事件的预测提供技术依据。

关键词: 极端低温事件, 多尺度环流, 北极涛动, 新疆

Abstract:

This study identifies regional extreme cold events in Xinjiang during winters between 1981 and 2020 using ERA5 daily minimum temperature reanalysis data and analyzes their multi-timescale circulation characteristics with National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Results demonstrate that Xinjiang experienced 30 regional extreme cold events in winters during 1981-2020. Notably, events lasting >21 d in December exhibited the highest frequency and longest duration. The average and peak daily average temperature anomalies during these events were closely related to their duration—the longer the duration, the greater the temperature deviation and more pronounced negative temperature anomalies for the corresponding month (or season). When regional extreme cold events lasting >11 occurred in January or February, the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere exhibited a typical negative Arctic Oscillation phase. For events lasting >21 d strong positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly center formed over the North Pacific. Simultaneously, the stable trough-ridge pattern in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere facilitated the persistent influence of cold air. For events lasting 8-10 and >11 d, the characteristic circulation patterns gradually developed 3 and 6 d in advance, respectively. When events lasting >21 d reached their peak intensity, a robust and stable 500 hPa positive geopotential height anomaly over the North Pacific established a circulation pattern conducive to the sustained influence of cold air.

Key words: extreme low-temperature events, multi-scale circulation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Xinjiang

陈颖, 刘精, 邵伟玲, 贾孜拉·拜山, 田书婷. 1981—2020年新疆冬季区域极端低温事件的多时间尺度环流特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(5): 775-787.

CHEN Ying, LIU Jing, SHAO Weiling, Jiazila BAISHAN, TIAN Shuting. Multi-time scale circulation characteristics of extreme low-temperature events in Xinjiang during winter from 1981 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(5): 775-787.

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序号	开始时间	结束时间	峰值时间	持续天数/d	峰值日覆盖率/%
1	1984-02-16	1984-03-02	1984-02-25	16	97.1
2	1984-12-13	1985-01-14	1984-12-20	33	93.0
3	1987-11-24	1987-12-08	1987-11-27	15	85.4
4	1988-02-09	1988-02-19	1988-02-16	11	80.7
5	1988-02-24	1988-03-09	1988-02-28	15	86.6
6	1991-02-16	1991-02-23	1991-02-18	8	88.3
7	1994-01-15	1994-01-22	1994-01-17	8	89.4
8	1996-01-11	1996-01-20	1996-01-15	10	74.2
9	1996-02-14	1996-02-23	1996-02-20	10	66.3
10	1996-12-03	1996-12-11	1996-12-05	9	85.3
11	1997-11-10	1997-12-12	1997-11-15	33	90.9
12	1998-01-14	1998-01-21	1998-01-19	8	74.8
13	2000-02-19	2000-03-04	2000-02-23	15	81.8
14	2001-12-01	2001-12-22	2001-12-12	22	91.3
15	2002-12-20	2003-01-05	2003-01-01	17	57.3
16	2004-01-30	2004-02-07	2004-02-03	9	81.9
17	2004-12-24	2005-01-01	2004-12-30	9	46.7
18	2005-01-26	2005-02-11	2005-02-06	17	66.3
19	2005-12-09	2005-12-16	2005-12-13	8	55.9
20	2006-01-02	2006-01-10	2006-01-06	9	70.1
21	2008-01-19	2008-02-17	2008-02-12	30	77.1
22	2010-02-08	2010-02-18	2010-02-11	11	51.1
23	2010-12-29	2011-01-22	2011-01-09	25	84.3
24	2012-01-18	2012-01-30	2012-01-21	13	80.3
25	2012-12-15	2013-01-09	2012-12-22	26	77.7
26	2013-02-08	2013-02-19	2013-02-18	12	56.2
27	2014-02-02	2014-02-17	2014-02-10	16	61.3
28	2014-12-08	2014-12-18	2014-12-11	11	69.0
29	2018-01-24	2018-02-11	2018-01-30	19	70.2
30	2018-12-02	2018-12-15	2018-12-07	14	70.1

	峰值日覆盖率/%	事件平均气温与同期对比/℃	峰值日平均气温与事件同期对比/℃	当月气温距平/℃	当季气温距平/℃
8~10 d	73.3	-4.7	-6.6	-1.0	-0.7
11~20 d	72.4	-5.1	-7.7	-2.2	-0.6
21 d以上	85.7	-5.6	-7.9	-3.1	-1.5