气候变化下菟丝子属3种植物在中国的潜在地理分布

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

菟丝子属（Cuscuta）植物因茎全寄生的特点全属均被列为检疫植物，探究菟丝子属植物在中国潜在空间分布特点对其防治有重要作用。本研究选取杯花菟丝子（C. cupulata）、原野菟丝子（C. campestris）、单柱菟丝子（C. monogyna）3种菟丝子属植物为研究对象，结合其已有地理分布记录932条、野外考察记录144条和20个环境变量，应用最大熵模型和ArcGIS，预测其在当前和未来（2041—2060年、2061—2080年）SSP2-4.5温室气体排放浓度场景下的潜在适生区分布，并将当前气候情景下菟丝子属3种植物的适生区与土地利用数据进行叠加分析。结果表明：（1）受试者工作特征曲线下的面积（AUC）均大于0.9，预测精度较高。（2）影响菟丝子属3种植物适生区分布的主要环境因子存在差异，但均是气候因子占主导，地形因子的贡献率相对较小。（3）当前气候情景下杯花菟丝子与单柱菟丝子适生区多分布于我国北方，而原野菟丝子适生区除了在北方有分布外亦在东南沿海有大面积覆盖，并且未来3种菟丝子属植物均表现出向我国北部扩张的趋势。（4）当前时期菟丝子属3种植物的适生区大部分土地已经被开发利用。

关键词: 菟丝子属, MaxEnt模型, 潜在适生区, 适生区叠加, 土地利用类型

Abstract:

Cuscuta plants are classified as quarantine plants due to their parasitic stem characteristics, and it is important to investigate the potential spatial distribution characteristics of Cuscuta plants in China for effective control. In this study, three species of Cuscuta (C. cupulata, C. campestris and C. monogyna) were selected as the research subjects. Based on 932 records of geographical distribution, 144 records of field investigation and 20 environmental variables, the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS were used to predict potential niche distributions under current and future scenarios (2041-2060, 2061-2080) considering of greenhouse gas emissions from SSP2-4.5. The suitable areas for the 3 species of Cuscuta under the current climate conditions and land use date were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The area under the work characteristic curve (AUC) for all subjects was greater than 0.9 indicating high prediction accuracy. (2) The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the three species of Cuscuta within their habitable zones with a relatively small contribution rate from topographic factors varied, but all of them were dominated by climatic factors. (3) Currently C. cupulata and C. monogyna distributions are concentrated in northern China, while C. campestris is not only distributed in the north, but also concentrated in southeastern China, and in future scenarios they will expand further northward. (4) In the current period, most land areas suitable for these three species of Cuscuta have already been exploited.

Key words: Cuscuta, MaxEnt model, potential suitable area, overlap of the suitable habitats, land use type

瞿宇阳, 文田田, 刘佳敏, 阎平. 气候变化下菟丝子属3种植物在中国的潜在地理分布[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(1): 97-107.

QU Yuyang, WEN Tiantian, LIU Jiamin, YAN Ping. Potential geographic distribution of the three species of Cuscuta in China under climate scenarios[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 97-107.

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环境变量代码	变量描述	单位
Bio1	年平均温度	℃
Bio2	昼夜温差月均值	℃
Bio3	昼夜温差与年温差比值	-
Bio4	温度季节性变化标准差	-
Bio5	最热月最高温	℃
Bio6	最冷月最低温	℃
Bio7	气温年较差	℃
Bio8	最湿季平均温度	℃
Bio9	最干季平均温度	℃
Bio10	最热季平均温度	℃
Bio11	最冷季平均温度	℃
Bio12	年降水量	mm
Bio13	最湿月降水量	mm
Bio14	最干月降水量	mm
Bio15	降水量季节性变异系数	-
Bio16	最湿季降水量	mm
Bio17	最干季降水量	mm
Bio18	最热季降水量	mm
Bio19	最冷季降水量	mm
DEM	海拔	m

类型	物种	特征组合	倍频	信息量准则
默认	杯花菟丝子	LQPH	1	32.93
	原野菟丝子	LQPH	1	40.83
	单柱菟丝子	LQPH	1	82.31
优化	杯花菟丝子	QPT	1.6	0
	原野菟丝子	QPT	2.8	0
	单柱菟丝子	QPT	1.9	0

土地利用类型	耕地/%	林地/%	草地/%	水域/%	建设用地/%	未利用土地/%	总适生区面/10⁴ km²
杯花菟丝子	20.69	16.80	30.53	2.44	3.24	26.30	588.54
原野菟丝子	21.62	37.13	13.71	2.82	4.50	20.22	117.45
单柱菟丝子	21.86	13.05	24.95	2.53	2.51	35.10	261.52