黑河中游正义峡径流变化趋势及归因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以黑河中游正义峡水文站的实测径流量数据为基础，采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、滑动t检验法、Pettitt检验法和累积距平法分析了正义峡水文站1970―2020年径流序列的变化趋势和突变年份，并利用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程，对正义峡径流量变化趋势进行了归因分析。结果表明：（1）研究期内正义峡径流量波动变化，丰枯交替，但整体呈现增加趋势，2004年径流发生突变，突变后的年平均径流量增加了3.08×10⁸ m³，增加率为32.7%。（2）突变后的2005―2020年，正义峡径流量对降水、潜在蒸发和下垫面参数的弹性系数分别为1.40、-0.40、-1.57，且各因子对径流的贡献率分别为42.73%、-12.52%、69.79%，表明径流量对下垫面变化最为敏感，气候因子中降水对径流的影响大于潜在蒸发。（3）在一定的区域气候条件下，植被覆盖、土地利用、流域调水等人类活动引起的中游下垫面变化是正义峡径流量变化的主要原因。研究结果可为流域管理部门制定水资源合理分配及调用方案提供科学依据。

关键词: 径流变化, 归因分析, 水热耦合平衡方程, 气候变化, 人类活动, 黑河中游

Abstract:

This study utilized measured runoff data from the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station in the middle reaches of the Heihe River to analyze the trend and mutation years of the runoff sequence from 1970 to 2020. Various methods, including linear regression, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T mutation test, the Pettitt test, and cumulative offset verification, were employed for the analysis. Additionally, an attribution analysis of the runoff changes at the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station was conducted using the Budyko water-energy coupled balance equation. The results indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, the runoff at Zhengyi Gorge showed fluctuations, alternating between periods of abundance and contraction but showed an overall increasing trend. The runoff experienced a mutation in 2004, resulting in a 3.08 × 10⁸m3 increase in average annual runoff volume, representing a growth rate of 32.7%. (2) In the period after the mutation (2005-2020), the elastic coefficients of runoff in response to precipitation, potential evaporation, and underlying surface parameters were 1.40, -0.40, and -1.57, respectively. The contribution rates of each factor to runoff were 42.73%, -12.52%, and 69.79%, respectively, indicating that runoff is most sensitive to underlying surface changes and that precipitation has a more significant impact on runoff than potential evaporation among climate factors. (3) Under certain regional climatic conditions, the changes in the underlying surface of the middle reaches caused by human activities, such as vegetation cover, land use, and watershed water transfer, are the main reasons for the changes in runoff at Zhengyi Gorge. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for river basin management departments to formulate water resource allocation and utilization plans.

Key words: runoff change, attribution analysis, coupled energy-water balance equation, climate change, human activity, the middle reaches of Heihe River

胡广录,陶虎,焦娇,白元儒,陈海志,麻进. 黑河中游正义峡径流变化趋势及归因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(9): 1414-1424.

HU Guanglu,TAO Hu,JIAO Jiao,BAI Yuanru,CHEN Haizhi,MA Jin. Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1414-1424.

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水文站点	突变点			突变前			突变后		变化率/%
水文站点	年份	显著性		径流量/10⁸m³	变异系数（C_v）		径流量/10⁸m³	变异系数（C_v）	变化率/%
正义峡	2004	0.05		9.43	0.28		12.51	0.13	32.7

水文站	时期	R/mm	P/mm	ET₀/mm	n	α	K	ε_p	εET₀	ε_n
正义峡	基准期（1970―2004年）	36.01	118.90	897.80	0.66	0.30	7.55	1.49	-0.49	-1.79
正义峡	变化期（2005―2020年）	49.70	130.60	987.60	0.58	0.38	7.56	1.40	-0.40	-1.57

水文站	基准期	变化期	贡献量/mm			dR′/mm	dR/mm	δ/mm	贡献率（C）/%
水文站	基准期	变化期	P	ET₀	n	dR′/mm	dR/mm	δ/mm	P	ET₀	n
正义峡	1970―2004年	2005―2020年	6.11	-1.79	9.98	14.30	13.69	0.61	42.73	-12.52	69.79

年份	耕地面积/km²	实际耕地灌溉率/%	人均GDP /10⁴元	建设用地面积/km²	农业用水 /10⁸ m³	工业用水 /10⁸ m³	生活用水 /10⁸ m³	生态用水 /10⁸ m³	总用水量 /10⁸ m³
2000	1849.67	72.11	0.32	176.73	16.64	0.51	0.37	1.42	18.94
2005	2003.50	85.96	0.93	189.32	15.32	0.66	0.48	1.31	17.77
2010	2133.49	84.65	1.77	200.62	15.67	0.30	0.40	1.22	17.59
2015	2178.12	83.91	3.06	224.57	15.76	0.22	0.41	0.78	17.18
2020	2210.45	81.55	3.77	263.77	13.08	0.10	0.36	0.52	14.06
变化期（2005― 2020）变化率/%	10.33	-5.13	305.38	39.32	-14.62	-84.85	-25.00	-60.31	-20.88