近20 a新疆阿尔泰山积雪时空变化及其影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2001—2020年新疆阿尔泰山的MOD10A2积雪产品数据，结合DEM及气象数据，分析近20 a阿尔泰山积雪时空变化特征及地形、气象因素对积雪覆盖的影响。结果表明：（1）年均积雪覆盖率（SCP）年际变化总体呈不显著减少趋势，变化率为-0.88%·(10a)^-1。积雪变化具有明显季节性，其中秋季呈增加趋势，冬季呈显著减小趋势。年内积雪从10月开始积累，1月SCP值达到最大。（2） SCP与海拔呈正相关关系。不同坡向区域的SCP区别较大，最高值是西北坡，为28.45%，南坡最低，为18.36%。（3）积雪覆盖频率（SCF）整体呈现出东北高、西南低的分布格局，与海拔呈显著正相关，其中有67.65%的区域SCF呈减少趋势。高山区SCF呈上升趋势而平原及河流区呈下降趋势。（4）气温是影响新疆阿尔泰山积雪变化的主要因素，与SCF呈显著负相关。随着海拔逐渐升高，气温对积雪的影响逐渐减小。新疆阿尔泰山年均降水量呈现从西北部向东南部逐渐降低的空间分布特征，SCF与降水量总体呈正相关。

关键词: 积雪, MOD10A2, 时空变化, 气象因子, 新疆阿尔泰山

Abstract:

Using MOD10A2 snow product data from 2001 to 2020, along with digital elevation and meteorological data, the spatiotemporal variation of snow cover in the Altai Mountains, Xinjiang, and the influence of topographic and meteorological factors over this period were analyzed. The results indicated the following. (1) Snow cover percentage (SCP) in the Altai Mountains of Xinjiang exhibited a decreasing overall trend from 2001 to 2020, with the lowest and highest values observed in 2007 and 2010, respectively, and a variation rate of -5.69%·(10a)^-1. Troughs were observed throughout the year, with maximum and minimum troughs in January and July, respectively. Seasonally, SCP increased in fall and decreased in the other three seasons. The uneven distribution of climate conditions, including temperature and precipitation, caused fluctuations in the timing of maximum annual snow cover occurrence. The Altai annual SCP reached its peak between 96.45% and 99.92%, primarily observed in January and December. The lowest coverage range was 0.84%-2.27%, which occurred in July and August. (2) SCP showed a positive correlation with altitude, with lower SCP values below 500 m (average of 8.11%) and higher values above 2000 m (average of 99.08% in an area with stable snow cover all year round). SCP varied depending on the slope, with the northwest slope exhibiting the highest values (28.45%) and the south slope showing the lowest values (18.36%). (3) Land surface temperature exhibited higher and lower distributions in the northeast and southwest, respectively, and was significantly positively correlated with altitude. Moreover, 67.65% of the Altai Mountain region showed a downward trend in snow cover frequency (SCF) from 2001 to 2020. High mountain areas experienced increasing SCF, whereas plain and river areas exhibited decreasing SCF. (4) Temperature was the main factor influencing snow cover change, being negatively correlated with SCF over 9.08 × 10³ km² (80.52% of the total Altai Mountain area). Therefore, as altitude increases, the impact of temperature on snow cover gradually diminishes. Annual average precipitation in Altai decreased gradually from northwest to southeast, and precipitation was positively correlated with 87.14% of regional SCF, with a weakened effect on SCF changes observed in high-altitude mountain areas and a more significant correlation observed in low-altitude areas.

Key words: snow cover, MOD10A2, spatial-temporal variation, meteorological factors, Altai Mountain of Xinjiang

李虹, 李忠勤, 陈普晨, 彭加加. 近20 a新疆阿尔泰山积雪时空变化及其影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(7): 1040-1051.

LI Hong, LI Zhongqin, CHEN Puchen, PENG Jiajia. Spatio-temporal variation of snow cover in Altai Mountains of Xinjiang in recent 20 years and its influencing factors[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1040-1051.

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站点编号	站点名称	经度	纬度	海拔/m
51053	哈巴河	48.03E	86.24N	532.6
51059	吉木乃	47.26E	85.52N	984.1
51076	阿勒泰	47.44E	88.05N	735.3
51087	富蕴	46.59E	89.31N	807.5

海拔高程/m	面积/km²	百分比/%
≤500	5412.96	10.78
500~1000	15400.76	30.66
1000~1500	8104.05	16.14
1500~2000	7149.54	14.23
>2000	14158.01	28.19

坡向	方位角/(°)	面积/km²	百分比/%
N	0~22.5；337~360	6576.63	13.10
NE	22.5~67.5	6033.17	12.02
E	67.5~112.5	5423.26	10.81
SE	112.5~157.5	5703.10	11.36
S	157.5~202.5	6729.21	13.41
SW	202.5~247.5	7444.39	14.83
W	247.5~292.5	6267.71	12.49
NW	292.5~337.5	6007.24	11.97

变化程度	分级标准	面积/km²	百分比/%
极显著降低	Slope<0，P<0.01	717.64	1.43
显著降低	Slope<0，0.01≤P<0.05	2614.62	5.21
不显著降低	Slope<0，P≥0.05	30617.71	61.01
不显著升高	Slope>0，P≥0.05	15933.65	31.75
显著升高	Slope>0，0.01≤P<0.05	245.91	0.49
极显著升高	Slope>0，P<0.01	55.20	0.11