中天山北坡冬季降雪变化及其影响因子分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.01.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用中天山北坡17个国家级气象站1978—2020年冬季逐日降水、气温要素等观测资料，采用多种统计方法，分析冬季降雪时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系，结果表明：降雪日数和降雪量区域分布相似，均呈“城区多，山区少”分布特征；小雪日减少是导致总雪日减小的直接原因，中雪和暴雪显著增多是造成总降雪量增多的主要原因；持续1 d降水过程是冬季主要降雪过程，随着持续时间的增长，降水过程显著减少，≥5 d降水过程仅占2.8%；近43 a中天山北坡气候呈现较明显的暖湿化趋势，1987年、1994年分别发生降雪量由少变多和平均气温由低变高的突变；降雪量与年降水量、冬季平均最低气温、降雪日数呈显著正相关，年降水量越大、冬季最低气温越低、出现降雪日数越多，冬季降雪量就越大，反之越小。

关键词: 不同量级降雪, 时空分布, 持续性, 中天山北坡

Abstract:

Based on the observation data of daily precipitation and temperature elements in winter from 1978 to 2020 from 17 national meteorological stations, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of winter snowfall and its relationship with meteorological factors in the economic belt on the north slope of the middle Tianshan Mountains were analyzed by using various statistical methods. The results show that: The regional distribution of snowfall days and snowfall amount is similar, showing the distribution characteristics of ‘more urban areas, less mountainous areas’. The decrease of light snow days is the direct reason for the decrease of total snow days, while the significant increase of moderate snow and blizzard is the main reason for the increase of total snowfall. The precipitation process lasting for 1 day is the main snowfall process in winter. With the increase of the duration, the precipitation process decreases significantly, and the precipitation process ≥ 5 days only accounts for 2.8%; In the past 43 years, the climate on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains has shown an obvious warming and humidifying trend. In 1987 and 1994, the amount of snowfall changed from less to more and the average temperature changed from lower to higher; The amount of snowfall is significantly and positively correlated with the annual precipitation, the average minimum temperature in winter, and the number of snowfall days. The greater the annual precipitation, the lower the minimum temperature in winter, and the more snowfall days, the greater the amount of snowfall in winter, and vice versa.

Key words: snowfall of different orders, spatial and temporal distribution, persistent, the north slope of the middle Tianshan Mountains

苗运玲, 于永波, 霍达, 潘存良, 李如琦. 中天山北坡冬季降雪变化及其影响因子分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(1): 9-18.

MIAO Yunling, YU Yongbo, HUO Da, PAN Cunliang, LI Ruqi. Analysis of winter snowfall variability and its influencing factors on the north slopes of the middle Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(1): 9-18.

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量级	降水量			降水日数
量级	降水量/mm	所占比例/%	气候倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]	日数/d	所占比例/%	气候倾向率 /[d·(10a)^-1]
小雪	12.2	51.7	2.52	16.7	88.4	-0.52
中雪	6.6	28.0	0.22^**	1.6	8.5	-0.87
大雪	3.6	15.3	0.57	0.5	2.6	0.17^*
暴雪	1.2	5.1	1.06^**	0.1	0.5	0.13^**
总降雪	23.6	-	0.65	18.9	-	0.03

		小雪	中雪	大雪	暴雪
丰雪年	降雪量/%	37.2	28.4	19.9	14.5
丰雪年	降雪日/%	82.2	12.8	4.4	0.6
枯雪年	降雪量/%	62.3	29.7	8.0	-
枯雪年	降雪日/%	92.8	6.1	1.1	-

	平均气温	平均最高气温	平均最低气温	降水日数	降水量
冬季	0.08	-0.14	0.27	-0.52	2.52^**
全年	0.35^**	0.31^**	0.45^**	-3.36^**	6.2

	平均气温	平均最高气温	平均最低气温	降水日数	降水量
冬季	0.268	0.153	0.316^*	0.499^**	-
全年	0.217	0.113	0.283	0.259	0.450^**