开都-孔雀河流域水资源优化配置

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2018.05.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水资源是维持内陆河流域社会经济与生态环境协调发展的关键因素。针对水资源短缺现状，建立兼顾生态、生产和生活用水的优化配置方案是提高水资源利用效率、缓解供需矛盾的有效手段。本文以开都-孔雀河流域为研究区，采用二阶段区间优化算法，基于历史气象、水文、土地利用、社会经济等数据，构建水资源优化模型，对市政用水、生态用水、工农服务业用水等进行年、月、旬多尺度优化配置。该方法结合区间、概率优化的特点，可准确分析多水源来水和多用户用水的不确定性，实现不同政策情景下的水资源最优配置。研究表明：流域市政、畜牧业和二三产业需水基本能够满足，缺水主要发生在农业、生态用水和塔河下游输水。在区域分配上，库尔勒与和静县农业缺水最为显著；生态缺水主要发生在博湖县和库尔勒市，塔里木河下游生态输水单元最为缺水，在高来水水平下仍缺水0.27×108~ 0.92×108 m3·a^-1。年内配水量最大发生在7月，最小为1月；9月缺水程度最高，农业和生态缺水量分别为0.36×108~1.43×108 m³和0.90×108 m³。不同的水资源管理政策将导致流域系统收益发生明显变化，与其他政策情景相比，经济效益优先的情景下，系统能获得更高的用水收益，是相对最优的水资源配置方案。

关键词: 二阶段区间优化算法, 水资源, 优化配置, 政策分析, 内陆河流域

Abstract: Water resources is the key factor to maintain a harmonious social,economic and ecological development in inland river basin. To establish an optimal plan of redistributing water resources is an effective method for improving the efficiency of water resources utilization and alleviating the contradiction between water resources supply and demand based on the current situation of water shortage in the study area. In this paper, the Kaidu-Kongque Watershed was considered as the research area, and the two-stage interval optimization algorithm was used to develop a model of optimizing water resources based on the historical, meteorological, hydrological, land use, social and economic data, and the optimized modes of redistributing water resources for the various industries were carried out. On which the uncertainties of inflow sources and water users could be exactly analyzed, and an optimized redistribution of water resources could be achieved. The results showed that the water consumptions for the urban residents, animal husbandry and secondary and tertiary industries could be basically satisfied, and the water shortage occurred mainly in agriculture, ecology and ecologic water conveyance to the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Regionally, the water shortage in agriculture occurred mainly in Korla City and Hejing County, the ecological water shortage occurred mostly in Bohu County and Korla City, and the water shortage is the most serious and as high as 0.27×108-0.92×108 m³·a^-1 in high-inflow year in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The highest and lowest water shortages occurred in July and January respectively; the most serious water shortage occurred in September, and the water shortage volumes for agriculture and ecology were 0.36×108-1.43×108 m³ and 0.90×108 m³ respectively. Different water management policies could lead to the significant changes of benefits in stream system. Compared with other policy scenarios, the system under the priority of economic benefits could obtain a high water use efficiency.

Key words: two-stage interval optimization algorithm, water resources, optimized water redistribution, policy analysis, inland drainage basin

王文辉, 黄粤,刘铁，孟凡浩，刘蛟. 开都-孔雀河流域水资源优化配置[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(5): 1030-1039.

WANG Wen-hui, HUAGN Yue, LIU Tie, MENG Fan-hao, LIU Jiao. Optimized Redistribution of Water Resources in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin[J]. , 2018, 35(5): 1030-1039.

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