气候变暖背景下黄河上游地区暴雨灾害致灾危险性演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.02

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1369-1378.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.02 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250802

气候变暖背景下黄河上游地区暴雨灾害致灾危险性演变特征

李万志¹^,²(), 段丽君¹^,²(), 刘振磊³, 祁门紫仪¹, 余迪¹, 姚海俊⁴

1.青海省气候中心，青海西宁 810001
2.青海省温室气体及碳中和重点实验室，青海西宁 810001
3.孝感市气象局，湖北孝感 432000
4.大通县气象局，青海大通 810100

收稿日期:2025-02-16 修回日期:2025-06-16 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-11-24
通讯作者: 段丽君. E-mail: duanljlz@163.com
作者简介:李万志（1984-），男，副高级工程师，主要从事气象灾害风险评估研究. E-mail: li_wanzhi@163.com
基金资助:
青海省重点研发与转化计划(2023-SF-109);国家自然科学基金重点项目(42230611);青海省温室气体及碳中和重点实验室开放基金项目(MSXM-202308)

Evolution characteristics of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorm disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under the context of climate warming

LI Wanzhi¹^,²(), DUAN Lijun¹^,²(), LIU Zhenlei³, QI Menziyi¹, YU Di¹, YAO Haijun⁴

1. Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
2. Key Laboratory of Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
3. Xiaogan Meteorological Bureau, Xiaogan 432000, Hubei, China
4. Datong County Meteorological Bureau, Datong 810100, Qinghai, China

Received:2025-02-16 Revised:2025-06-16 Published:2025-08-15 Online:2025-11-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

受气候变暖影响，黄河上游地区暴雨灾害多发，影响了流域长治久安和生态安全。本研究基于1961—2022年黄河上游地区33个气象站观测数据，分析了气候变暖背景下暴雨过程强度及其致灾危险性演变特征，结果表明：（1）黄河上游地区年平均气温整体呈升高趋势，升温速率为0.38 ℃·（10a）^-1，年平均气温在1997年发生突变，1997年后升温更加显著。（2）暴雨过程次数及其强度均呈增加趋势，其中过程日最大降水量、累计降水量、持续天数在气候增温突变前呈减少趋势，突变后则显著增加，暴雨极端性增强。（3）气候增温突变后暴雨灾害致灾危险性高等级区面积显著增大，其中高危险区、较高危险区、中等危险区的面积占比分别增加了1.59%、11.46%和31.64%，低危险区则减少了44.69%，高危险区主要分布在人口和经济密集的东北部。研究成果可为了解黄河上游地区暴雨灾害的演变规律及其防御和治理提供支撑。

关键词: 气候变暖, 暴雨灾害, 致灾危险性, 综合评价法, 黄河上游地区

Abstract:

The incidence of heavy rainfall disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River region has increased in recent years due to climate warming, posing risks to the long-term stability and ecological security of the basin. This study analyzed the changing characteristics of heavy rainfall events and the evolving trends of their associated hazards using meteorological observation data from 33 stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow region, spanning from 1961 to 2022. The findings revealed the following: (1) The annual mean temperature for the upper Yellow River region has shown an upward trend, with a warming rate of 0.38 ℃·(10a)^-1, and a significant change in mean temperature was observed in 1997. (2) The number and intensity of rainstorm events have increased, with daily maximum precipitation, cumulative precipitation, and the duration of these events decreasing prior to climate warming but significantly increasing thereafter, indicating that rainstorms have become more extreme. (3) Following climate warming, high-risk areas for rainstorm disasters expanded considerably, with areas classified as high-risk, higher-risk, and medium-risk increasing by 1.59%, 11.46%, and 31.64% respectively, whereas low-risk areas decreased by 44.69%. The high-risk areas are primarily located in the northeast, where population density and economic activity are significant. The results of this research can inform strategies for the prevention and management of local rainstorm disasters.

Key words: climate warming, heavy rainfall disaster, disaster risk, comprehensive evaluation method, upper reaches of the Yellow River

李万志, 段丽君, 刘振磊, 祁门紫仪, 余迪, 姚海俊. 气候变暖背景下黄河上游地区暴雨灾害致灾危险性演变特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(8): 1369-1378.

LI Wanzhi, DUAN Lijun, LIU Zhenlei, QI Menziyi, YU Di, YAO Haijun. Evolution characteristics of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorm disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under the context of climate warming[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(8): 1369-1378.

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评价指标	指标因子	指标权重
暴雨过程强度	日最大降水量	0.19
	累计降水量	0.39
	过程持续天数	0.42
孕灾环境	地形起伏度	0.27
	坡度	0.27
	河网密度	0.15
	距水体远近	0.15
	植被覆盖度	0.16
致灾危险性	暴雨过程强度指数	0.70
致灾危险性	孕灾环境影响系数	0.30

强度等级	高	较高	中等	低
百分位数阈值	IR>90%	75%<IR≤90%	60%<IR≤75%	IR≤60%
致灾危险性阈值	IR>0.71	0.46<IR≤0.71	0.32<IR≤0.46	IR≤0.32

等级	高	较高	中等	低
突变前（1961—1997年）	0.71	8.10	20.32	70.87
突变后（1998—2022年）	2.30	19.56	51.96	26.18
差值（突变后-突变前）	1.59	11.46	31.64	-44.69

气候变暖背景下黄河上游地区暴雨灾害致灾危险性演变特征

Evolution characteristics of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorm disasters in the upper reaches of the Yellow River under the context of climate warming

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