柴达木盆地夏季暴雨灾害风险区划及其影响

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2018年柴达木盆地10个气象台站观测资料,分析了柴达木盆地极端强降水量、强降水日数的时空演变特征,定量化分析了柴达木盆地不同量级暴雨灾害的影响程度,结果表明：（1） 1961—2018年柴达木盆地夏季（6—8月）降水呈增多趋势,增幅为7.5 mm·(10a)^-1,极端强降水次数亦呈增多趋势,增幅为2次·(10a)^-1,尤其是近10 a来,夏季极端强降水次数增多尤为明显,年平均强降水次数为17次,与1981—2010年平均值相比偏多6次。（2）柴达木盆地因强降水诱发的暴雨灾害次数总体呈增多趋势,增幅为2.5次·(10a)^-1,进入21世纪以来增加尤为明显,都兰、乌兰、天峻及德令哈是暴雨灾害出现次数最多的地区。（3）暴雨灾害风险区划结果：夏季柴达木盆地天峻县（舟群乡、快尔玛乡、木里镇、新源镇、江河镇）为极端强降水诱发的暴雨灾害高风险区;德令哈（蓄集乡、尕海镇）、乌兰县（铜普镇、柯柯镇及茶卡镇）、都兰县（香加乡、热水乡、沟里乡、香日德镇、夏日哈镇、察汗乌苏镇）为暴雨灾害较高风险区,针对暴雨灾害风险级别和影响范围,定量化分析了柴达木盆地暴雨灾害对GDP、人口、土地利用类型的影响程度。

关键词: 强降水, 暴雨灾害, 影响, 柴达木盆地

Abstract:

Recently, global climate change has led to significant changes in the Qaidam Basin. Temperature and precipitation are two important indicators of climate change. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the times of heavy rain and rainstorm disaster in summer have drastically changed in the Qaidam Basin due to the driving factors of climate change and human activities. To further understand the summer rainstorm disaster and its influence on the Basin, linear regression, correlation, and smooth average analysis were performed based on ten meteorological stations from 1961 to 2018 to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy rainfall. This paper analyzed heavy rainfall variation and its days from 1961 to 2018 in the Qaidam Basin, the risk zoning of rainstorm disaster, and its influence on industries. The results indicated: (1) a recent increasing trend of precipitation and heavy rainfall periods in summer (for the past 58 years) in the Qaidam Basin (7.5 mm and 2 times higher every decade, respectively), and a recent increasing trend of heavy rainfall periods (for the past decade) averaging 17 times, which was 6 times higher than the period from 1981 to 2010. Also, in the mid-eastern Qaidam Basin, there was a significant increase in heavy rainfall. (2) an increasing trend of rainstorm disasters from 1990 to 2018; the rate was 2.5 times higher every decade, especially in Dulan, Ulan, Tianjun, and Delingha since the 21st century, which also increased the risk of disaster. (3) the hazard factor and hazard-bearing body in Tianjun county, which belonged to the highest risk region, and Dulan, Ulan, and Delingha county, which belonged to the higher risk regions. Assessments of industries were accordingly conducted. The regionalization results agreed with the flood history records in the Qaidam Basin. Following the results, this study provided some references for the relevant government departments and insurance and agricultural production industries to help reduce rainstorm disaster losses.

Key words: heavy rainfall, rainstorm disaster, influence, Qaidam Basin

刘义花,李红梅,温婷婷,申红艳,韩忠全,朱宝文. 柴达木盆地夏季暴雨灾害风险区划及其影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3): 757-763.

LIU Yihua,LI Hongmei,WEN Tingting,SHEN Hongyan,HANG Zhongquan,ZHU Baowen. Risk zoning of summer rainstorm disaster and its influence in Qaidam Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 757-763.

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名称	低风险区	较低风险区	中风险区	较高风险区	高风险区
GDP/10⁸元	357.0	130.5	40.9	50.6	57.7
人口/人	110051	91573	88080	77612	9063
土地利用/10⁴km²	12.92	4.61	4.58	2.94	0.63