渭河流域极端降水时空演变规律及其对大气环流因子的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于渭河流域内及其周边28个气象站点1961—2017年逐日降水量数据,选取PRCPTOT、SDII、Rx1day、Rx5day、R95P和R99P共6种极端降水指数,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波变换方法综合分析了渭河流域极端降水时空演变规律,并进一步探究流域极端降水指数与6种大气环流异常因子之间的相关关系。研究表明:（1）在1961—2017年间,渭河流域极端降水指数整体呈减少的趋势。渭河流域极端降水指数由西北向东南地区逐渐增加,流域东南地区较西北地区湿润;（2） 1990年以后,极端降水指数在年际间的波动性明显增大,流域发生极端降水事件的概率有上升趋势;（3）在所选择的大气环流异常因子中,渭河流域极端降水受南方涛动指数SOI影响最大。SOI越大,流域发生少雨现象的概率越大,反之,则发生多雨、洪涝现象的概率越大。本文结果对于理解气候变化对于极端降雨的影响机理和加强预防气候灾害的能力有重要意义。

关键词: 渭河流域, 极端降水指数, 时空演变规律, 大气环流异常因子

Abstract:

Six extreme precipitation indices, including PRCPTOT, SDII, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95P, and R99P, were calculated using the daily precipitation data of 28 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin, from 1961 to 2017, to represent extreme precipitation characteristics. The Mann-Kendall trend and continuous wavelet tests were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation. The potential influences of anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation were explored using the cross-wavelet analysis technique. From 1961 to 2017, the extreme precipitation indices showed a decreasing trend in the Weihe River Basin. The extreme precipitation indices increased from northwest to southeast, and the southeastern area of the basin was wetter than the northwest. After 1990, the inter-annual fluctuation of the extreme precipitation index increased significantly and the degree and probability of extreme flood events in the basin had an upward trend. Among the selected anomalous atmospheric circulation factors, the Southern Oscillation Index had the most significant effect on extreme precipitation. The higher the SOI value, the higher the probability of occurrence of less rain, while the smaller the SOI value, the higher the probability of more rain and flood events occurring. This study improves our understanding of the influence of climate change on extreme precipitation, and it improves our capacity to prevent climate disasters.

Key words: Weihe River Basin, extreme precipitation index, spatial-temporal variation characteristics, anomalous atmospheric circulation factors

邹磊,余江游,王飞宇,张彦. 渭河流域极端降水时空演变规律及其对大气环流因子的响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3): 764-774.

ZOU Lei,YU Jiangyou,WANG Feiyu,ZHANG Yan. Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in the Weihe River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 764-774.

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站名	海拔高度/m	年平均降水量/mm	站名	海拔高度/m	年平均降水量/mm
临洮	1887	521	蒲城	499	521
华家岭	2451	486	韩城	458	555
定边	1360	333	岷县	2315	579
吴旗	1273	471	陇县	924	580
海原	1854	381	麦积	1083	519
同心	1344	269	凤翔	781	608
固原	1780	454	太白	1543	741
环县	1544	436	永寿	995	582
延安	958	542	武功	446	599
西吉	1917	410	华山	2065	813
平凉	1347	506	华县	342	587
西峰镇	1415	553	佛坪	1088	919
长武	1206	588	商州	742	694
洛川	1158	612	镇安	694	787

类型	SOI	PDO	NP	NAO	AO	AMO
PRCPTOT	-0.33	-0.08	0.15	0.16	0.07	0.01
SDII	-0.45	-0.01	-0.06	-0.04	-0.16	0.34
Rx1day	-0.38	-0.07	0.01	-0.17	-0.14	0.27
Rx5day	-0.34	-0.09	0.02	-0.15	-0.21	0.18
R95P	-0.33	-0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.02	0.17
R99P	-0.41	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.30